{"id":35370,"date":"2016-07-13T00:42:11","date_gmt":"2016-07-13T07:42:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=35370"},"modified":"2016-07-13T00:42:57","modified_gmt":"2016-07-13T07:42:57","slug":"t2108-update-160712","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/07\/13\/t2108-update-160712\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (July 12, 2016) – Despite Unbalance, GRAVITY Eases the Way for An Overbought S&P 500"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 78.3% (1st day of overbought conditions)
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 70.2%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 13.6 (a fractional gain)
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: bullish
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #104 over 20%, Day #10 over 30%, Day #9 over 40%, Day #8 over 50%, Day #3 over 60%, Day #1 over 70% (1st day of overbought conditions ends 21 days under 70%)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nAnd just like that the stock market is back to overbought conditions. This is a scenario that was far from my mind a month ago. I would have said this scenario was inconceivable in the immediate wake of post-Brexit woes. But here we are.<\/p>\n

T2108<\/a> closed with a resounding thunderclap deep into overbought territory. My favorite technical indicator jumped from 68.95% all the way to 78.3%. <\/p>\n


\n
\"T2108<\/a>
T2108 makes a convincing surge into overbought territory<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

T2107, the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages (DMAs), got back into the bullish act by returning to a breakout from the (now former) post-recession downtrend.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The vast majority of stocks are once again trading above their long-term trendlines. Can the rally continue from here this time?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

So NOW the breakout of the S&P 500 (SPY) to a fresh all-time high looks a LOT more convincing.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 (SPY) hits a fresh all-time high as it tags its upper-Bollinger Band (BB)<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Except….the market will not let us off the hook so easily. This break out is actually a bit unbalanced and. <\/p>\n

First of all, the volatility index, the VIX, rallied again to close in the green. It is another very marginal gain, but I am duly noting that support is holding at a point from which the VIX has staged numerous rallies. A sudden rise in volatility while the market is so far aloft typically makes for an unstable mix.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The volatility index, the VIX, is stubbornly holding resistance even as the S&P 500s rally continues.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Secondly, the high beta stocks in the S&P 500 carried the entire load on this major breakout day. The “low volatility” stocks actually pulled back a bit. Now, I can understand traders and the like chasing after high beta on a major breakout to all-time highs: such stocks promise the biggest and fastest gains when buyers in the market are in “risk on” mode. However, thinning participation makes for a more vulnerable rally. We have seen this time and again. I am going to keep a close eye on developments here.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) pulled back -0.5% while the rest of the S&P 500 soared to a collective new all-time high.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) soared 3.4% to lead the charge to all-time highs for the S&P 500.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

This divergence would be even more stark if SPLV were not pulling back from its own all-time high while SPHB remains well-off its all-time high. SPHB made its last all-time high around $35.68 in April, 2015, just ahead of the S&P 500’s last all-time high. Perhaps an overdue rotation is underway. Regardless, I am fine with SPHB outpacing SPLV, but I do not want to see the two moving in distinctly opposite directions on too many days. <\/p>\n

Rounding out some of the usual suspects for assessing the health of a rally are gold (GLD) and iShares Trust – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Both declined and both moves should support the bullish case for stocks if they continue to decline.<\/p>\n

I have been bracing for a top in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) over and over in the past few months. The post-Brexit malaise invalidated the last potential blow-off top for GLD<\/a>. This time around, the “buy gold” sentiment indicator is flashing a much stronger signal that this latest extreme move in gold is due for a notable pullback.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) pulls back from a 28-month high on sizable selling volume.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n
\"Google<\/a>
Google searches for “buy gold” are reaching another monthly peak. This has reliably signaled that an extreme move in GLD is ending or has ended. (July data is partial).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\"Let's<\/a>
Let’s not forget that speculators have not been this (net) long gold since at least 2008! Gold has been an extremely crowded trade most weeks since May.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

A pullback in bonds could begin a rush of money out of the “safety” of very low yielding instruments into chasing stocks ever higher. A move out of bonds into high beta stocks would be like a double-whammy of risk-on behavior.<\/p>\n


\n
\"iShares<\/a>
iShares Trust – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) gaps down sharply off a furious uptrend. Has the rush for “safety” finally ended?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Rounding out the rush from safety is the current sharp pullback in the Japanese yen (FXY) in the wake of a major party victory for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Against several currency pairs, the yen has reversed all its post-Brexit gains in the span of just two days! I sold my FXY put options expiring this Friday. I am holding steadfast to the fistful of put options expiring next month.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) falls sharply for a second straight day. A retest of support and the 50DMA uptrend seems in the cards.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\"Like<\/a>
Like gold, the Japanese yen has not had so much net bullish support from speculators since at least 2008.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

In honor of the traditional weights on the stock market, I am coining the term GraVITY: Gold-ra-VIx-Treasuries (or TLT)-Yen. Typically, or conventionally, the stronger GRAVITY gets, the more pressure should weigh on the stock market. As I pointed out in a recent T2108 Update<\/a>, this time around, the stock market has rallied quite happily in the face of stronger GRAVITY. So imagine the lift-off possible when GRAVITY is lessening its grip on the market’s ankles! (I am taking ideas for the “ra” part of GRAVITY!).<\/p>\n

So the breakout for the S&P 500 (SPY) is not as clean as I would like but it is still a bullish breakout. My trading call now flips from neutral to bullish. I skip neutral and go straight to bearish, if (once) T2108 drops from overbought conditions. I am managing my wariness over the unbalanced nature of the breakout by honing in on specific breakouts. Not only could these breakout moves signal the start of a new run-up, but also they generate definitive stops (below support). I post some charts below to consider. I did not get a fill on orders for shares and call options on 3D Systems Corporation (DDD). I consider Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF) to be my latest big miss. I made an earlier attempt to play a breakout from the Bollinger Band (BB) squeeze, but I gave up after failing to get my preferred entry price on call options. Finally, I meant to load up on call options and shares of ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO) but failed to do so. I am looking to fill up on the next (intraday) dip.<\/p>\n


\n
\"3D<\/a>
3D Systems (DDD) confirmed 200DMA support with this 50DMA breakout.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n
\"Wynn<\/a>
Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) may be stuck in the middle of a larger consolidation, but this move above the 50DMA could at least begin a retest of the top of the range.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"U.S.<\/a>
U.S. Steel (X) is a true champ. It broke out to what is essentially a new 52-week high. It is stretched above its upper-BB, so a buy on the dips strategy is likely best now.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"Cliffs<\/a>
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (CLF) resolves a Bollinger Band (BB) squeeze to the upside – bigtime. Today’s catalyst was a major upgrade from JP Morgan with a $10.50 price target.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\"If<\/a>
If Joy Global (JOY) can break out to a new 10-month high, the commodity complex must be getting a LOT of support from buyers right now!<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

— – —<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (U.S. dollar)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).
\nIBB<\/a> (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology).<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly<\/a>
\n*All charts created using <\/strong>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nRelated links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long UVXY shares, long USD\/JPY, long FXY put options, long JOY call options, long WYNN call options, long GLD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,482,199,20,219,43,490,62,1633],"tags":[1152,1688,465,1316,513,200,1742,138,65,1271,1270,362,225,226,280,303,109,194],"class_list":["post-35370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakout","category-commodities","category-forex","category-high-tech","category-industrial-sector","category-overbought","category-technical-analysis","category-travel","tag-all-time-high","tag-cftc","tag-clf","tag-ddd","tag-fxy","tag-gld","tag-gravity","tag-japanese-yen","tag-sp-500","tag-sphb","tag-splv","tag-spy","tag-t2107","tag-t2108","tag-tlt","tag-vix","tag-wynn","tag-x"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (July 12, 2016) - Despite Unbalance, GRAVITY Eases the Way for An Overbought S&P 500 - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/07\/13\/t2108-update-160712\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (July 12, 2016) - Despite Unbalance, GRAVITY Eases the Way for An Overbought S&P 500 - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are ... 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