{"id":34895,"date":"2016-06-16T17:17:27","date_gmt":"2016-06-17T00:17:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=34895"},"modified":"2016-06-16T17:17:27","modified_gmt":"2016-06-17T00:17:27","slug":"a-potential-blow-off-top-for-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/06\/16\/a-potential-blow-off-top-for-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"A Potential Blow-Off Top for Gold"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In early May, 2016, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) hit a new 15-month high. At that time, <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3972705-blow-top-gold-lies-ahead\" target=\"_blank\">I considered the prospects for a blow-off top in GLD<\/a>. I concluded that a top had not yet arrived but would likely come &#8220;sometime&#8221; over the horizon. I used Google Trends, one of my favorite tools for analyzing gold sentiment, as well as the positioning of speculators in futures contracts. Today, the technicals delivered what looks like a blow-off top in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34897\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34897\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GLD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GLD.png\" alt=\"A potential blow-off top for SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) \" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34897\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GLD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GLD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34897\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A potential blow-off top for SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>This chart has all the characteristics sufficient to describe a blow-off top:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A breakout or surge to a new intraday high &#8211; in this case, at its high of the day, GLD hit a near 2-year high that just topped 2015&#8217;s high.<\/li>\n<li>A subsequent sell-off (or &#8220;fade&#8221;) form the day&#8217;s high that ends the day with a loss and breaks the low of the previous day.<\/li>\n<li>A surge in trading volume, preferably an extreme &#8211; in this case, GLD traded at 2.5x the 90-day average volume and hit levels not seen since February 11th. (Recall Feb 11th as <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/02\/13\/t2108-update-160212\/\" target=\"_blank\">THE bottom for the big sell-off<\/a> that delivered a nasty start to the year). Volume is a key element of the blow-off top because it indicates that the run-up finally exhausted buyers. After the &#8220;last&#8221; buyer eagerly rushes in, only motivated sellers are left to dominate the trading action.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The only thing left is confirmation.<\/p>\n<p>Most importantly, will sellers continue to drag GLD downward? A break of support at the 50-day moving average (DMA) would confirm a top. A subsequent rally that ends at the intraday high as resistance would confirm a top. <\/p>\n<p>From a sentiment standpoint, I will be watching for a surge in &#8220;buy gold&#8221; in Google Trends. Regular readers know that such a surge is a sufficient condition to predict or confirm a change in direction for GLD, but it is not necessary. On a daily basis, the sentiment has indeed increased along with the GLD run-up. The last data point in the chart below is from Tuesday, June 14th.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34899\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34899\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GoogleTrendsBuyGold-daily.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GoogleTrendsBuyGold-daily.png\" alt=\"&quot;Buy gold&quot; searches (aka sentiment) is on the rise similar to what happened when GLD last made a peak.\" width=\"550\" height=\"293\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34899\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GoogleTrendsBuyGold-daily.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GoogleTrendsBuyGold-daily-300x160.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34899\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">&#8220;Buy gold&#8221; searches (aka sentiment) is on the rise similar to what happened when GLD last made a peak.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/trends\/explore#q=buy%20gold&#038;date=1%2F2010%2078m&#038;cmpt=q&#038;tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B7\" target=\"_blank\">Google Trends<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>While the daily trend is suggestive, my sentiment model for Google Trends does not use such granular moves. I have effectively used more aggregate views: weekly and monthly. Both views are early since the data do not include today&#8217;s potential blow-off event. The weekly is suggestive but the monthly is far too incomplete.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34901\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34901\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GoogleTrendsBuyGold-weekly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GoogleTrendsBuyGold-weekly.png\" alt=\"Relative to the past year, the weekly sentiment on &quot;buy gold&quot; is so far unremarkable.\" width=\"550\" height=\"291\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34901\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GoogleTrendsBuyGold-weekly.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GoogleTrendsBuyGold-weekly-300x159.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34901\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Relative to the past year, the weekly sentiment on &#8220;buy gold&#8221; is so far unremarkable.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_34900\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34900\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GoogleTrendsBuyGold-monthly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GoogleTrendsBuyGold-monthly.png\" alt=\"...ditto for the monthly view which looks back to 2010 for perspective.\" width=\"550\" height=\"292\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34900\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GoogleTrendsBuyGold-monthly.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/160616_GoogleTrendsBuyGold-monthly-300x159.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34900\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">&#8230;ditto for the monthly view which looks back to 2010 for perspective.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/trends\/explore#q=buy%20gold&#038;date=1%2F2010%2078m&#038;cmpt=q&#038;tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B7\" target=\"_blank\">Google Trends<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The CFTC&#8217;s data on speculator positioning arrives Friday evening. I eagerly await that report to see whether speculators made major moves as of last Tuesday in gold (or even silver).<\/p>\n<p>This potential blow-off top shifts my trading strategy for GLD. Normally, I would short such a chart, but as a rule, I do not short gold. So, my approach here is just to sit on my core GLD position and stay away from any further short-term trades on gold-related positions.<\/p>\n<p>I hope to have a definitive call on a top for GLD within a week. That analysis will also include changes in the U.S. dollar index and the market&#8217;s expectations for the next rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long GLD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In early May, 2016, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) hit a new 15-month high. At that time, I considered the prospects for a blow-off top in GLD. I concluded that a top had not yet arrived but would likely come &#8220;sometime&#8221; over the horizon. I used Google Trends, one of my favorite tools for analyzing &#8230; <a title=\"A Potential Blow-Off Top for Gold\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/06\/16\/a-potential-blow-off-top-for-gold\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,199,62,1304],"tags":[200,24,1164],"class_list":["post-34895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-commodities","category-technical-analysis","category-top","tag-gld","tag-gold","tag-google-trends"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Potential Blow-Off Top for Gold - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/06\/16\/a-potential-blow-off-top-for-gold\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Potential Blow-Off Top for Gold - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In early May, 2016, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) hit a new 15-month high. 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At that time, I considered the prospects for a blow-off top in GLD. I concluded that a top had not yet arrived but would likely come &#8220;sometime&#8221; over the horizon. I used Google Trends, one of my favorite tools for analyzing ... 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