{"id":34679,"date":"2016-06-05T01:21:09","date_gmt":"2016-06-05T08:21:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=34679"},"modified":"2016-06-05T01:21:09","modified_gmt":"2016-06-05T08:21:09","slug":"the-currency-market-is-lagging-a-dramatic-shift-in-brexit-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/06\/05\/the-currency-market-is-lagging-a-dramatic-shift-in-brexit-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"The Currency Market Is Lagging A Dramatic Shift in Brexit Sentiment"},"content":{"rendered":"

In late February, I wrote “Forget The Yuan – The Devaluation Of The British Pound Is Breathtaking<\/a>.” At the time, I suggested that Google Trends on the search term “Brexit” indicated that the breathtaking losses in the British pound should soon abate (against the U.S. dollar). Sure enough, the pound printed a bottom within a few more days.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The British pound is still holding its bottom against the U.S. dollar set in late February, 2016.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The signals from Google Trends worked very well then. However, a divergence appeared in April with interest in Brexit heating back up. In mid-May, interest in Brexit reached new highs.<\/p>\n


\n
\"As<\/a>
As the June 23rd vote on Brexit approaches, search interest in Brexit has soared to new all-time highs.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\"Interest<\/a>
Interest in Brexit is heavily concentrated in the United Kingdom and Ireland. No other country comes close.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Google Trends<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Yet, as the earlier chart shows, the British pound did not make new lows against the U.S. dollar as Brexit interest reheated. While the pound suffered a notable setback in the first half of May, it made a comeback in the second half of May. It took a new poll indicating a small tilt in favor of leaving the European Union (EU) to bring the rally to a complete halt. <\/p>\n

The divergence also shows up in the positioning of speculators. Speculators in the British pound began pulling back from net short positions in mid-April just as Brexit interest reheated. Speculators have not shown any inclination to increase net shorts again. Levels of short interest have stabilized over the past several weeks. <\/p>\n


\n
\"After<\/a>
After three weeks of straight declines from recent highs in net short interest, speculators have held levels relatively steady.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

If my interpretation of Brexit interest remains correct, then the current divergence in financial markets from the dramatic shift in sentiment represents a unique opportunity to get ahead of the market. I interpreted heightened interest in a topic as meaning that market participants will get equally anxious about that topic. Anxiety in this case drives a sell-off in the British pound. A move to catch-up could be swift.<\/p>\n

The surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report may have already reawakened fear of event risk in the British pound<\/a>. Combine that with the earlier sharp reaction to the poll results, and it seems selling interest in the British pound is revving up for the final two and a half weeks going into the June 23rd referendum.<\/p>\n

For reference, here is the British pound against the Japanese yen (FXY). GBP\/JPY hit a new low in April that was more consistent with the move in Google Trends, but it still managed to bounce back sharply from there. A steep sell-off and a sharp rebound later, and a new sell-off is underway. This latest plunge could mark the beginning of a fresh low for GBP\/JPY…<\/p>\n


\n
\"GBP\/JPY<\/a>
GBP\/JPY looks VERY “heavy.”<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: StockCharts.com<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: net short the British pound<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In late February, I wrote “Forget The Yuan – The Devaluation Of The British Pound Is Breathtaking.” At the time, I suggested that Google Trends on the search term “Brexit” indicated that the breathtaking losses in the British pound should soon abate (against the U.S. dollar). Sure enough, the pound printed a bottom within a … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,237],"tags":[1682,128,127,626,384],"class_list":["post-34679","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-united-kingdom","tag-brexit","tag-british-pound","tag-fxb","tag-gbpjpy","tag-gbpusd"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Currency Market Is Lagging A Dramatic Shift in Brexit Sentiment - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/06\/05\/the-currency-market-is-lagging-a-dramatic-shift-in-brexit-sentiment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Currency Market Is Lagging A Dramatic Shift in Brexit Sentiment - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In late February, I wrote “Forget The Yuan – The Devaluation Of The British Pound Is Breathtaking.” At the time, I suggested that Google Trends on the search term “Brexit” indicated that the breathtaking losses in the British pound should soon abate (against the U.S. dollar). 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