{"id":34534,"date":"2016-05-25T01:57:05","date_gmt":"2016-05-25T08:57:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=34534"},"modified":"2016-05-25T01:57:05","modified_gmt":"2016-05-25T08:57:05","slug":"t2108-update-160524","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/05\/25\/t2108-update-160524\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (May 24, 2016) – Bears and Sellers Stand Down"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 56.0%
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 59.5%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 14.4
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: neutral
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #71 over 20%, Day #70 over 30%, Day #67 over 40%, Day #1 over 50% (ending 5 days under 50%) (overperiod), Day #9 under 60% (underperiod), Day #16 under 70%<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nJust like that, sellers melted away from the market and the bulls ran wild. The buyers and bulls have forced bears and sellers to stand down.<\/p>\n

In the last T2108 Update<\/a>, I stayed cautiously bearish as the major indices remained in a chopfest under key 50-day moving average resistances. Today, May 24, 2016, that resistance melted away simultaneously as the S&P 500 (SPY) and the NASDAQ (QQQ) punched through resistance and re-entered bullish territory.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 (SPY) is just one follow-through day away from confirming a bullish breakout.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The NASDAQ (QQQ) pulls off a breakout of dual resistance at its 50 and 200DMAs<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

As my assumption of an extended “chopfest” gets challenged, this quick potential switch from a bearish to a bullish trading bias is consistent with the whiplash that a chopfest can dish out. My trading bias has moved from “cautiously bearish” to neutral to recognize the imminent switch to a bullish bias.<\/p>\n

T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, fully confirmed today’s rally. T2108 soared from 48% to 56%. T2107, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, could easily hit a new high in short order given the current momentum.<\/p>\n

The volatility index, the VIX, receded with the bears and sellers. Once again the VIX treated the 15.35 level as a pivot.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The VIX looks ready to retest lows.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Several stocks demonstrate my changed thinking. <\/p>\n

Netflix (NFLX) is a stock that was poised for a big breakdown or breakout from a Bollinger Band (BB) squeeze. With my bearish bias, I assumed the top of the recent range would hold, and NFLX would hurtle quickly downward from there. I was clearly thinking too many steps ahead. NFLX has gained about 10% in just three days. It is over-stretched above its upper-Bollinger Band (BB) and faded from its high to close on its 50DMA. Normally, I would expect a pullback from here to at least the upper-BB, but this is a stock on fire with INCREASING buying volume. The over-stretched trend could continue a lot further with this kind of momentum.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Netflix<\/a>
Netflix suddenly accelerates from 0 to 60 and stretches toward a 50DMA test of resistance.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) broke out above its 50DMA resistance and goes from bearish to bullish all over again. I started this month lamenting how IBB completely disappointed me by failing to deliver much follow-through to April’s (initially) impressive breakout.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) avoided a retest of recent lows so the latest 50DMA breakout looks like a bottoming underway.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Qualcomm (QCOM) broke out last week above its 200DMA. The buying has accelerated and put QCOM at a new high for 2016. The stock is definitely in a bullish position.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Qualcomm<\/a>
Qualcomm (QCOM) is surging higher in convincing follow-through to last week’s 200DMA breakout.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Even home builders joined the breakout party. I wrote about the bullish implications in housing in my latest Housing Review for May, 2016<\/a>. <\/p>\n


\n
\"iShares<\/a>
iShares US Home Construction (ITB) breaks out from 50 and 200-day moving average resistance on buying volume that has not been this large since the recovery from August’s flash crash.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

This is an interesting time for the market to get a fresh boost. The rally comes right on the heels of selling that was presumed to come from rate hike fears. The odds of a rate hike in July are as strong as ever but so is the market. Even if I switch back to a bullish bias, I will remain bearish on dollar-sensitive plays (excluding gold and silver) as long as Fed Fund futures project an imminent rate hike.<\/p>\n

— – —<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (U.S. dollar)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).
\nIBB<\/a> (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology).<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly<\/a>
\n*All charts created using <\/strong>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nRelated links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long UVXY call options, long SSO put options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,482,300,219,599,512,796,62],"tags":[1522,413,405,316,535,65,362,226,303],"class_list":["post-34534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakout","category-health-care","category-high-tech","category-internet","category-resistance","category-semiconductors","category-technical-analysis","tag-ibb","tag-nasdaq","tag-nflx","tag-qcom","tag-qqq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-t2108","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (May 24, 2016) - Bears and Sellers Stand Down - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/05\/25\/t2108-update-160524\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (May 24, 2016) - Bears and Sellers Stand Down - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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