{"id":34295,"date":"2016-05-03T22:29:10","date_gmt":"2016-05-04T05:29:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=34295"},"modified":"2016-05-04T01:16:40","modified_gmt":"2016-05-04T08:16:40","slug":"t2108-update-160503","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/05\/03\/t2108-update-160503\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (May 3, 2016) &#8211; Overbought Status Finally Ends As the NASDAQ Teeters"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/T2108.htm\">T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/#!\/search\/%23T2108\">follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/#!\/search\/%23120trade\" target=\"_blank\">the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n<p><strong>T2108 Status<\/strong>: 65.3% (ends an epic 44-day overbought period!)<br \/>\n<strong>T2107 Status<\/strong>: 57.4%<br \/>\n<strong>VIX Status<\/strong>: 15.6<br \/>\n<strong>General (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bearish<br \/>\n<strong>Active T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #56 over 20%, Day #55 over 30%, Day #52 over 40%, Day #49 over 50%, Day #45 over 60%, Day #1 under 70% (ends 44 days over 70% &#8211; overbought period)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Commentary<\/strong><br \/>\n<center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">%stocks&gt;40DMA has plunged to 62%. %stocks&gt;200DMA testing uptrend. Bull technicals breaking down. But <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24SPY&amp;src=ctag\">$SPY<\/a> has 50DMA support <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/T2108?src=hash\">#T2108<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/T2107?src=hash\">#T2107<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Dr. Duru (@DrDuru) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\/status\/727526260046331904\">May 3, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/04\/29\/t2108-update-160429\/\" target=\"_blank\">the last T2108 Update<\/a>, I feared an imminent end to this extended overbought period. Today was the day. T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), plunged soon after the open and buyers this time were unable to save the day. The close at 65.3% marks the end of a 44-day overbought period and marks the first time I have changed my trading call to bearish in a very long time. I included the &#8220;cautious&#8221; caveat since the S&#038;P 500 still enjoys support from its 50DMA.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34302\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34302\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_T2108.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_T2108.png\" alt=\"The heaviness of T2108 finally gave way to an end of overbought status for T2108\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34302\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_T2108.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_T2108-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34302\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The heaviness of T2108 finally gave way to an end of overbought status for T2108<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_34303\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34303\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_SP500.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_SP500.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 is down 3 of the last 4 days and is churning above 50DMA support\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34303\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_SP500.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_SP500-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34303\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The S&#038;P 500 is down 3 of the last 4 days and is churning above 50DMA support<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The S&#038;P 500 (SPY) started the overbought period on March 1st. The overbought period ended with a 4.3% gain over that period. This is about half the expected performance based on the history of overbought periods since 1986 although there are few overbought periods that have lasted as long as this most recent one.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_33404\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-33404\" style=\"width: 461px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160301_T2108Over70Pct.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160301_T2108Over70Pct.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Performance By T2108 Duration Above the 70% Threshold\" width=\"471\" height=\"281\" class=\"size-full wp-image-33404\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160301_T2108Over70Pct.png 471w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160301_T2108Over70Pct-300x179.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 471px) 100vw, 471px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-33404\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">S&#038;P 500 Performance By T2108 Duration Above the 70% Threshold<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Adding to the bearish danger is T2107, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs. T2107 has broken off from its primary uptrend that has defined most of the bullish run of the last overbought period. Although the 20DMA uptrend remains intact for T2107, the break from the primary uptrend is more of a concern with T2108 ending the overbought period.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34309\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34309\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_T2107.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_T2107.png\" alt=\"T2107 is still in an uptrend. Can it hang in there to maintain hope for a fresh bullish run for the market?\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34309\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_T2107.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_T2107-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34309\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">T2107 is still in an uptrend. Can it hang in there to maintain hope for a fresh bullish run for the market?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The NASDAQ (QQQ) has already entered bearish territory with a breakdown below its 200DMA support last Thursday, a 50DMA breakdown the next day, and what looks like a confirmation of that breakdown today. This was enough for me to load up on QQQ put options and follow my new bearish trading call.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34304\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34304\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_NASDAQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_NASDAQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ is breaking down\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34304\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_NASDAQ.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_NASDAQ-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34304\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The NASDAQ is breaking down<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Ironically, the NASDAQ broke down just as Apple (AAPL) FINALLY experienced an up day after 8 straight days of losses. Suddenly, AAPL looks like it is bottoming given the previous two days featured hammer candlestick-like patterns. AAPL provides a sliver of hope for the NASDAQ to survive its growing breakdown.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34306\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34306\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_AAPL.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_AAPL.png\" alt=\"Is Tim Cook finally putting some of those billions to work on buying back stock?\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34306\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_AAPL.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_AAPL-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34306\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Is Tim Cook finally putting some of those billions to work on buying back stock?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The volatility index, the VIX, actually could not hold its high of the day and settled close to the 15.35 pivot. It is hard to see the VIX taking off just yet. Still, I decided to load up on call options on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) as part of my bearish trading call. I do not plan to add any more bearish T2108 trades until the bear call gets confirmed further. (Note that my trades in anticipation of a rally to start May&#8217;s trading &#8211; puts on UVXY and shares of roShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures (SVXY) &#8211; worked out just as I had hoped when I wrote about them in <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/04\/29\/t2108-update-160429\/\" target=\"_blank\">the last T2108 Update<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34307\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34307\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_VIX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_VIX.png\" alt=\"The VIX is still wrapped around the 15.35 pivot. Is it getting ready to launch?\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34307\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_VIX.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_VIX-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34307\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The VIX is still wrapped around the 15.35 pivot. Is it getting ready to launch?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Caterpillar (CAT) has not confirmed a bearish turn in market sentiment. While CAT is still trading down from April earnings, the stock remains comfortably above 50DMA support.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34319\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34319\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_CAT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_CAT.png\" alt=\"Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) is looking toppy, but sellers have to break 50DMA support before CAT looks bearish again.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34319\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_CAT.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_CAT-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34319\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT) is looking toppy, but sellers have to break 50DMA support before CAT looks bearish again.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>As an example of a stock that has fallen from the ranks of contributors to T2107, I show the post-earnings chart of Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. (MLNX). <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34311\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34311\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_MLNX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_MLNX.png\" alt=\"Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. (MLNX) is breaking down and looks ready to fill post-earnings January&#039;s gap up\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34311\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_MLNX.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_MLNX-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34311\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. (MLNX) is breaking down and looks ready to fill post-earnings January&#8217;s gap up<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Another example is First Solar (FSLR). Fickle solar investors are losing patience again. FSLR cracked 200DMA support following April earnings  and has sold off every day since.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34323\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34323\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_FSLR.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_FSLR.png\" alt=\"First Solar (FSLR) breaks down from 200DMA support.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34323\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_FSLR.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_FSLR-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34323\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">First Solar (FSLR) breaks down from 200DMA support.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>For those interested in currencies, I strongly recommend seeing my latest posts on <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/05\/02\/australian-dollar-sinks-with-rba-rate-cut\/\" target=\"_blank\">the Australian dollar<\/a> (FXA) and the <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/05\/03\/japanese-yen-maximum-bullishness-meets-maximum-search-interest-a-fever-ready-to-break\/\" target=\"_blank\">Japanese yen<\/a> (FXY). In both cases, I think the market is on the edge of big unwinds of exceptionally large net long positions. Since I look to AUD\/JPY as a currency-based indicator of market sentiment, I am VERY interested in how these dynamics unfold. At the moment, the weakness of the Australian dollar is winning out over the weakness of the Japanese yen. AUD\/JPY has broken the April low which confirms my bearishness.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34312\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34312\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_AUDJPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_AUDJPY.png\" alt=\"AUD\/JPY continues its bearish breakdown\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34312\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_AUDJPY.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_AUDJPY-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34312\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">AUD\/JPY continues its bearish breakdown<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Another interesting development in foreign exchange is the potential blow-off bottom for the U.S. dollar index. Until now, conventional wisdom has insisted that the market needed dollar weakness to support earnings and stocks. Yet, the breakdown and acceleration of losses in the past 4 days has accompanied notable market weakness. The dollar was well below its lower-Bollinger Band (BB) when buyers finally stepped in to provide relief. This looks like a blow-off bottom to me. Needless to say, a new low should take the dollar a lot lower.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34313\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34313\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_DXY0.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_DXY0.png\" alt=\"Has the U.S. dollar finally bottomed?\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34313\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_DXY0.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_DXY0-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34313\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Has the U.S. dollar finally bottomed?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I took this moment as a signal to finally take profits on my position in CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar ETF (FXC). It was a great run that I wish I had timed a little better!<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34316\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34316\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_FXC.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_FXC.png\" alt=\"CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar ETF (FXC) has gone nearly straight up for almost 4 months. Time for a rest?\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34316\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_FXC.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_FXC-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34316\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar ETF (FXC) has gone nearly straight up for almost 4 months. Time for a rest?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The accelerated weakness in the dollar has not even helped emerging markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) gapped down into support at its 50 and 200DMA. My last trade of call options is essentially worthless now. Yet, at this critical juncture, I think it makes a lot of sense to get back to my more traditional play of out-of-the-money call and put options (an options strangle).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34314\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34314\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_EEM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_EEM.png\" alt=\"iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) is on the edge of a breakdown\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34314\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_EEM.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_EEM-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34314\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) is on the edge of a breakdown<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>A rebound in the dollar could spell trouble for the great rally in commodities. Already, the iron ore plays have stumbled. BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) gapped down to its 200DMA support. I am still working <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3965802-rio-vs-bhp-attractive-pairs-trade-opportunity\" target=\"_blank\">the iron ore pairs trade<\/a> here.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34315\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34315\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_BHP.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_BHP.png\" alt=\"BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) has so far topped out with its last report on the business.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34315\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_BHP.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_BHP-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34315\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) has so far topped out with its last report on the business.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The biggest caveat on the looming bearish story is Friday&#8217;s U.S. jobs report. I cannot be clear on what scenario creates a bullish response from the market, but I am bracing for a big reaction either way given this imortant moment for the market. <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?s=sell+in+may\" target=\"_blank\">It IS the month of May<\/a> after all&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8212; &#8211; &#8212;<\/p>\n<p>For readers interested in reviewing my trading rules for an oversold T2108, please see my post in the wake of the August Angst, &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/25\/t2108-update-150824\/\" target=\"_blank\">How To Profit From An EPIC Oversold Period<\/a>&#8220;, and\/or review my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/T2108.htm\" target=\"_blank\">T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of the S&amp;P 500\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.hcom\/h-sc\/ui?s=$SPX&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-11-03&amp;en=2016-05-03&amp;id=p14085208538\" target=\"_blank\">S&amp;P 500<\/a> or <a title=\"6-month chart of SPY\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=SPY&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-11-03&amp;en=2016-05-03&amp;id=p14085208538\" target=\"_blank\">SPY<\/a><br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of the U.S. dollar\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=$USD&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-11-03&amp;en=2016-05-03&amp;id=p25615696567\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (U.S. dollar)<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of EEM\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=EEM&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-11-03&amp;en=2016-05-03&amp;id=p15880085697\" target=\"_blank\">EEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of the VIX\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=$VIX&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-11-03&amp;en=2016-05-03&amp;id=p25615696567\" target=\"_blank\">VIX<\/a> (volatility index)<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of VXX\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=VXX&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-11-03&amp;en=2016-05-03&amp;id=p15880085697\" target=\"_blank\">VXX<\/a> (iPath S&amp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of EWG\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=EWG&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-11-03&amp;en=2016-05-03&amp;id=p15880085697\" target=\"_blank\">EWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of CAT\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=CAT&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-11-03&amp;en=2016-05-03&amp;id=p15880085697\" target=\"_blank\">CAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of IBB\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=IBB&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-11-03&amp;en=2016-05-03&amp;id=p15880085697\" target=\"_blank\">IBB<\/a> (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology).<\/p>\n<p>(Reload page and\/or click on the image, if it is not correct. At time of writing, server is having cache issues)<br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<strong>Daily T2108 vs the S&amp;P 500<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"T2108 vs. the S&amp;P 500 (DAILY)\" src=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&amp;P 500 (for comparative purposes)<br \/>\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<strong>Weekly T2108<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Weekly T2108\" src=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.png\" alt=\"Weekly T2108\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n*<strong>All charts created using <\/strong><strong><a title=\"Freestockcharts.com\" href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/tag\/t2108\/\" target=\"_blank\">click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\n<strong>Related links:<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/T2108.htm\">The T2108 Resource Page<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily.jpg\">Expanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&amp;P 500<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly.jpg\">Expanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long UVXY call options, long QQQ put options, short BHP, long BHP call options, short AUD\/JPY, long EEM call options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are &#8230; <a title=\"T2108 Update (May 3, 2016) &#8211; Overbought Status Finally Ends As the NASDAQ Teeters\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/05\/03\/t2108-update-160503\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,1303,483,199,20,219,43,490,512,3,62,1304,920],"tags":[250,772,631,64,299,1195,7,309,297,513,413,535,65,16,362,225,226,1092,303],"class_list":["post-34295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-bottom","category-breakdown","category-commodities","category-forex","category-high-tech","category-industrial-sector","category-overbought","category-resistance","category-solar-energy","category-technical-analysis","category-top","category-uptrend","tag-aapl","tag-audjpy","tag-bhp","tag-cat","tag-dxy0","tag-eem","tag-fslr","tag-fxa","tag-fxc","tag-fxy","tag-nasdaq","tag-qqq","tag-sp-500","tag-solar-stocks","tag-spy","tag-t2107","tag-t2108","tag-uvxy","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>T2108 Update (May 3, 2016) - Overbought Status Finally Ends As the NASDAQ Teeters - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/05\/03\/t2108-update-160503\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (May 3, 2016) - Overbought Status Finally Ends As the NASDAQ Teeters - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are ... 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