{"id":34270,"date":"2016-05-03T10:19:33","date_gmt":"2016-05-03T17:19:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=34270"},"modified":"2016-05-03T10:19:33","modified_gmt":"2016-05-03T17:19:33","slug":"japanese-yen-maximum-bullishness-meets-maximum-search-interest-a-fever-ready-to-break","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/05\/03\/japanese-yen-maximum-bullishness-meets-maximum-search-interest-a-fever-ready-to-break\/","title":{"rendered":"Japanese Yen: Maximum Bullishness Meets Maximum Search Interest &#8211; A Fever Ready to Break?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Traders remain very confident in the strength of the Japanese yen (FXY). Net longs stayed at &#8220;maximum bullishness&#8221; even ahead of last week&#8217;s monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34287\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34287\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_cot-USD_JPY.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_cot-USD_JPY.jpg\" alt=\"&quot;Maximum bullishness&quot; on the Japanese yen - traders have not been this bullish on the yen since at least 2008.\" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34287\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_cot-USD_JPY.jpg 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_cot-USD_JPY-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_cot-USD_JPY-300x300.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34287\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">&#8220;Maximum bullishness&#8221; on the Japanese yen &#8211; traders have not been this bullish on the yen since at least 2008.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oanda.com\/forex-trading\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>That boldness paid off as the BoJ failed to deliver more easing, and the yen soared. USD\/JPY dropped to levels last seen October, 2014 in what now looks like a major top. <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34288\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34288\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_USDJPY-weekly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_USDJPY-weekly.png\" alt=\"A major (multi-year) top\/plateau for USD\/JPY?\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34288\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_USDJPY-weekly.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_USDJPY-weekly-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34288\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A major (multi-year) top\/plateau for USD\/JPY?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>In the midst of this dramatic turn in sentiment for the yen, I stumbled upon another soaring indicator. Google Trends, an index of the popularity of search terms, shows searches for &#8220;Japanese yen&#8221; breaking out at the end of 2014 just as USD\/JPY was in its final run-up. The search index reached a new all-time high in last month.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_34290\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-34290\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_GoogleTrendsJapaneseYen.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_GoogleTrendsJapaneseYen.jpg\" alt=\"Searchers are at maximum interest in the Japanese yen.\" width=\"550\" height=\"293\" class=\"size-full wp-image-34290\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_GoogleTrendsJapaneseYen.jpg 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/160503_GoogleTrendsJapaneseYen-300x160.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-34290\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Searchers are at maximum interest in the Japanese yen.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\nSource: Google Trends<br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I typically use Google Trends as a sentiment indicator. I like to assess whether the trends or, even more importantly, the extremes in moves are consistent or contrary to other important indicators. In this case, I am comparing Google Trends with the price level of the Japanese yen currency pairs. Note that Google trends broke out just as USD\/JPY was running up to multi-year highs (multi-year cheapness for the yen). If I had been looking then, I would have guessed the run-up was coming to an end. In other words, the extreme in USD\/JPY was not being confirmed by Google Trends. <\/p>\n<p>Now, indicators are all pointing in favor of yen strength. Yet, sentiment seems to be reaching feverish levels. I know I am early in anticipating a bottom for USD\/JPY (100 seems like destiny right now!), but I am now adding a top in Google Trends as a potential sign that the fever will break sooner than later (the timing will never be precise). Note well that while Google Trends reached a new all-time high in April, the momentum in 2016 has definitely slowed. If Google Trends hits a fresh new high, I will need to revisit my assessments.<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, I am sticking with my strategy of slowly accumulating a long USD\/JPY position while fading all other currencies against the yen, especially the British pound, for shorter term trades. <\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long USD\/JPY, short GBP\/JPY<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Traders remain very confident in the strength of the Japanese yen (FXY). Net longs stayed at &#8220;maximum bullishness&#8221; even ahead of last week&#8217;s monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Source: Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders That boldness paid off as the BoJ failed to deliver more easing, and the yen soared. USD\/JPY &#8230; <a title=\"Japanese Yen: Maximum Bullishness Meets Maximum Search Interest &#8211; A Fever Ready to Break?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/05\/03\/japanese-yen-maximum-bullishness-meets-maximum-search-interest-a-fever-ready-to-break\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,62,1304,1210,920],"tags":[1688,513,1164,138,454],"class_list":["post-34270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-technical-analysis","category-top","category-trading-model","category-uptrend","tag-cftc","tag-fxy","tag-google-trends","tag-japanese-yen","tag-usdjpy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Japanese Yen: Maximum Bullishness Meets Maximum Search Interest - A Fever Ready to Break? - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/05\/03\/japanese-yen-maximum-bullishness-meets-maximum-search-interest-a-fever-ready-to-break\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Japanese Yen: Maximum Bullishness Meets Maximum Search Interest - A Fever Ready to Break? - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Traders remain very confident in the strength of the Japanese yen (FXY). Net longs stayed at &#8220;maximum bullishness&#8221; even ahead of last week&#8217;s monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Source: Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders That boldness paid off as the BoJ failed to deliver more easing, and the yen soared. USD\/JPY ... 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Net longs stayed at &#8220;maximum bullishness&#8221; even ahead of last week&#8217;s monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Source: Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders That boldness paid off as the BoJ failed to deliver more easing, and the yen soared. USD\/JPY ... 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