{"id":34197,"date":"2016-04-28T19:22:43","date_gmt":"2016-04-29T02:22:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=34197"},"modified":"2016-04-28T19:22:43","modified_gmt":"2016-04-29T02:22:43","slug":"markets-brace-for-another-australian-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/04\/28\/markets-brace-for-another-australian-rate-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets Brace for Another Australian Rate Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"

The disappointing inflation numbers for Australia<\/a> did not just take down the Australian dollar (FXA). Financial markets also rushed to ramp up the odds of a rate cut in the next policy meeting for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The likelihood of a rate cut in the RBA’s May meeting has suddenly soared above 50%.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: ASX RBA Rate Indicator<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Even if the RBA takes a pass on a rate cut in May, futures markets are still pricing in a rate cut as early as July or August<\/a> (pdf). The drop in the Australian dollar and the increased odds of a rate cut likely go hand-in-hand.<\/p>\n

Against the U.S. dollar, the Aussie has found some support at the rising 50-day moving average (DMA). However, more importantly for larger market implications, the Aussie is still tumbling hard against the Japanese yen. The change in trading in GBP\/AUD is made all the more dramatic by the recent change in trading behavior on the British pound (much more bullish!)<\/p>\n


\n
\"Can<\/a>
Can the rising 50DMA on AUD\/USD sustain support for a suddenly weakened Australian dollar?<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n
\"AUD\/JPY<\/a>
AUD\/JPY is getting dangerously close to confirming a major technical breakdown from its 50DMA and 200DMA resistance.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\"GBP\/AUD<\/a>
GBP\/AUD has been the gift that kept giving (downtrend) – is the gravy train over?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long EUR\/AUD, short GBP\/AUD, short AUD\/JPY<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The disappointing inflation numbers for Australia did not just take down the Australian dollar (FXA). Financial markets also rushed to ramp up the odds of a rate cut in the next policy meeting for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Source: ASX RBA Rate Indicator Even if the RBA takes a pass on a rate … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,20],"tags":[772,308,310,128,309,592,60,138,1591],"class_list":["post-34197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-forex","tag-audjpy","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-british-pound","tag-fxa","tag-gbpaud","tag-interest-rate","tag-japanese-yen","tag-u-s-dollar"],"yoast_head":"\nMarkets Brace for Another Australian Rate Cut - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/04\/28\/markets-brace-for-another-australian-rate-cut\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Markets Brace for Another Australian Rate Cut - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The disappointing inflation numbers for Australia did not just take down the Australian dollar (FXA). Financial markets also rushed to ramp up the odds of a rate cut in the next policy meeting for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Source: ASX RBA Rate Indicator Even if the RBA takes a pass on a rate ... 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