{"id":34164,"date":"2016-04-26T21:47:04","date_gmt":"2016-04-27T04:47:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=34164"},"modified":"2016-04-26T21:53:11","modified_gmt":"2016-04-27T04:53:11","slug":"australian-dollar-slammed-by-inflation-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/04\/26\/australian-dollar-slammed-by-inflation-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian Dollar Slammed By Inflation Data"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the last edition of “Forex Critical”<\/a> I claimed that the Australian is not likely to maintain its current blistering pace of gains. Just three days later, the stubbornly persistent rally of the Australian dollar (FXA) may already be grinding to a halt. <\/p>\n

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its inflation data for March, 2016<\/a>. I would not have considered the report particularly remarkable without the out-sized reaction in currency markets.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The Australian dollar (FXA) plunges following the March inflation report<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The Australian dollar may have finally peaked thanks to a disappointing inflation report.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Inflation in Australia actually fell 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in March. The December quarter delivered a 0.4% quarterly rise. March moved the annual trailing inflation rate from 1.7% to 1.3%, now well off the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2% target. <\/p>\n

The leading drag on inflation came from fuel prices: the 10% price drop in automotive fuel, the third quarterly drop, drove transportation prices down 2.5%. Much more worrisome perhaps was the 1% drop for recreation and culture which includes domestic and international holiday travel and accommodation. The report did not mention a driver, but I assume this weak pricing implies weakened demand in this sector. Perhaps the strong Australian dollar had something to do with the performance: Australians choosing to travel abroad to take advantage of their stronger currency and international visitors choosing to stay away from the relatively high prices.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Clothing<\/a>
Clothing and footwear and transport dragged on inflation while education costs soared.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS)<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The rise in the Australian dollar and commodities had at least one prominent economist starting to dream about rate hikes in the near future. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
\n

RBA minutes are setting the ground work for abandoning easing bias. Won't be long before it starts to talk of need for rate hikes.<\/p>\n

— Stephen Koukoulas (@TheKouk) April 19, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n