{"id":33561,"date":"2016-03-15T07:40:14","date_gmt":"2016-03-15T14:40:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=33561"},"modified":"2016-03-15T07:40:14","modified_gmt":"2016-03-15T14:40:14","slug":"the-british-pound-reverses-latest-brexit-fears-even-as-speculators-press-shorts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/03\/15\/the-british-pound-reverses-latest-brexit-fears-even-as-speculators-press-shorts\/","title":{"rendered":"The British Pound Reverses Latest Brexit Fears Even As Speculators Press Shorts"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 13, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

When I last wrote about the British pound<\/a> (FXB), the currency was reaching the bottom of its latest downdraft. I did not know the bottom was near, but I did claim that market sentiment suggested that “the British pound’s losses SHOULD at least decelerate if not abate altogether sooner than later\u2026” I used Google Trends on the search term “Brexit” as a proxy for sentiment. Now, search interest in Brexit has faded all the way back to where it sat right before the British Prime Minister set the date for the Brexit referendum. <\/p>\n


\n
\"Interest<\/a>
Interest in Brexit appears to be settling around the level of interest right before the run-up into the decision on a date for a Brexit referendum.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Google Trends<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"GBP\/USD<\/a>
GBP\/USD has broken a months-long downtrend in its 50DMA. The February highs represent the next major hurdle.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n
\"Like<\/a>
Like GBP\/USD, GBP\/JPY has now reversed all its post-Brexit loss. However, it has NOT yet broken its 50DMA downtrend.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\"EUR\/GBP<\/a>
EUR\/GBP has established a new trading range in the past month as the euro’s gains against the pound have finally slowed down.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource for charts: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Ironically, as the pound has lifted off from its latest woes, speculators have pressed their bets against the currency. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Speculators<\/a>
Speculators have once again revved up bets against the British pound. Net shorts were last this high in July, 2013.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Polling could provide a catalyst for renewed selling in the pound. {snip}.<\/p>\n

London Mayor Boris Johnson could still be an important catalyst, especially if he can sway the polling. On Friday, March 11th, he stepped up the rhetoric against staying in the EU. In his first major speech on Brexit<\/a>, Johnson emphatically declared that no one in their right mind would want to join the EU as it stands today. {snip}<\/p>\n


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