{"id":33487,"date":"2016-03-08T23:36:19","date_gmt":"2016-03-09T07:36:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=33487"},"modified":"2016-03-08T23:36:19","modified_gmt":"2016-03-09T07:36:19","slug":"glencores-instructive-reversal-on-commodity-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/03\/08\/glencores-instructive-reversal-on-commodity-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Glencore&#8217;s Instructive Reversal On Commodity Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 8, 2016. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3956660-glencores-instructive-reversal-commodity-prices\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On March 1, 2016, Glencore (GLNCY) announced <a href=\"http:\/\/www.glencore.com\/investors\/preliminary-results-2015-presentation\" target=\"_blank\">its preliminary 2015 earnings results<\/a>. During a media conference call, CEO Ivan Glasenberg declared a bottom for commodities. In <a href=\"http:\/\/edge.media-server.com\/m\/p\/9dqugrts\" target=\"_blank\">the subsequent investor\/analyst conference<\/a> call, Glencore&#8217;s executives said nothing about a bottom in commodities and instead were quite clear in their abundance of caution and eagerness to continue fortifying the company against further weakness in commodity prices. Glencore&#8217;s reversal is instructive as it provides a tale of caution: the current run-up in the price of at least some commodities may be running well ahead of the fundamentals on the ground. (I am particularly focused on iron ore in this observation).<\/p>\n<p>In the investor\/analyst call, Glasenberg presented along with Glencore&#8217;s CFO. Together, the two executives were quite clear that the company is doing what other mining companies continue to do &#8211; brace the company for the potential for lower commodity prices. Glencore went so far as to reassure investors and analysts that its &#8220;free cash flow will remain comfortably positive at materially lower price levels.&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Glencore&#8217;s instructive reversal made sense given large miners like BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) did not announce its measures of fortification as the beginning of a bottom in the market. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>BHP&#8217;s comments on metallurgical coal, copper, and iron ore are all revealing:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_33495\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-33495\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_BHP.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-33495\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_BHP.png\" alt=\"BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) has fought off a multitude of negatives to soar off the January 12-year low.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-33495\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_BHP.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_BHP-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-33495\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) has fought off a multitude of negatives to soar off the January 12-year low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>So while Glencore backtracked on its declaration of a bottom, the market is definitely trading like the bottom is receding in the rearview mirror. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_33496\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-33496\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_ironore_MBIOI62.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-33496\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_ironore_MBIOI62.png\" alt=\"Iron ore has soared 40% from the record low set in December, 2015.\" width=\"550\" height=\"398\" class=\"size-full wp-image-33496\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_ironore_MBIOI62.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_ironore_MBIOI62-300x217.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-33496\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Iron ore has soared 40% from the record low set in December, 2015.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/iron-ore-is-up-40-in-less-than-3-months-2016-3\" target=\"_blank\">Business Insider Australia<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Commodity currencies like the Canadian dollar (FXC) and the Australian dollar (FXA) are adding to the signals of a bottom. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_33492\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-33492\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_AUDUSD.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-33492\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar has accelerated against the U.S. dollar in March\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-33492\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_AUDUSD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_AUDUSD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-33492\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar has accelerated against the U.S. dollar in March<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_33493\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-33493\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_cot-AUD_USD.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-33493\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_cot-AUD_USD.png\" alt=\"Speculators have not been THIS bullish on the Australian dollar since September, 2014.\" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-33493\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_cot-AUD_USD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_cot-AUD_USD-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/03\/160307_cot-AUD_USD-300x300.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-33493\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Speculators have not been THIS bullish on the Australian dollar since September, 2014.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.oanda.com\/forex-trading\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip} Perhaps once Glencore carries through on production cuts, and especially if other producers follow suit, I will pull out <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2797765-the-commodities-crash-playbook-a-long-overdue-rewrite-and-revision\" target=\"_blank\">my Commodity Crash Playbook<\/a> and put a firmer stake in the ground on a bottom in a sustainable bottom commodities.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 8, 2016. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3956660-glencores-instructive-reversal-commodity-prices\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: short USD\/CAD, long FXC, long and short various positions against the Australian dollar, short put and call options on USO and long call options on USO<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) On March 1, 2016, Glencore (GLNCY) announced its preliminary 2015 earnings results. During a media conference call, CEO Ivan Glasenberg declared a bottom for commodities. In the subsequent investor\/analyst conference call, &#8230; <a title=\"Glencore&#8217;s Instructive Reversal On Commodity Prices\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/03\/08\/glencores-instructive-reversal-on-commodity-prices\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,199,20],"tags":[308,310,631,1640,309,1639,1686,1530,676,536,306,538],"class_list":["post-33487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-commodities","category-forex","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-bhp","tag-bhp-billiton-limited","tag-fxa","tag-glcnf","tag-glcny","tag-glencore","tag-iron-ore","tag-oil-2","tag-rba","tag-uso"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Glencore&#039;s Instructive Reversal On Commodity Prices - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/03\/08\/glencores-instructive-reversal-on-commodity-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Glencore&#039;s Instructive Reversal On Commodity Prices - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 8, 2016. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) On March 1, 2016, Glencore (GLNCY) announced its preliminary 2015 earnings results. During a media conference call, CEO Ivan Glasenberg declared a bottom for commodities. In the subsequent investor\/analyst conference call, ... 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