{"id":33452,"date":"2016-03-06T15:11:37","date_gmt":"2016-03-06T23:11:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=33452"},"modified":"2016-03-06T15:11:37","modified_gmt":"2016-03-06T23:11:37","slug":"rising-rate-expectations-add-to-changes-in-market-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/03\/06\/rising-rate-expectations-add-to-changes-in-market-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising Rate Expectations Add to Changes in Market Sentiment"},"content":{"rendered":"

I have become accustomed to a relatively predictable reaction to moves in the market’s expectations for rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Last week began in the wake of the market finally bringing its expectations for the next rate hike back into 2016. The cascade of impacts<\/a> from there were predictable: a stronger U.S. dollar index (DXY0), a drop in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT), and a (slight) decline in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).<\/p>\n

Something a bit different happened this past Friday, March 4, 2016 after the U.S. reported its jobs numbers for February. Rate expectations were pulled into September as part of what is now a trend of earlier and earlier expectations for a rate hike. <\/p>\n


\n
\"Expectations<\/a>
Expectations for the next Fed rate hike are rapidly moving earlier and earlier into the year.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: CME Group FedWatch<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Instead of strengthening during the week along with rate expectations, the U.S. dollar spent its time weakening. The index even closed the week retesting support at its 200DMA. <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The U.S. dollar index continues to churn between its 50 and 200DMAs<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

TLT dropped big to start the month. While it dipped on Friday in response to the jobs report, it bounced off its lower-Bollinger Band (BB) and failed to closed off the low of the week. I decided to use this dip to add to a tranche of call options on TLT. My trades here have simply played TLT’s strong uptrend for this year.<\/p>\n


\n
\"iShares<\/a>
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) seems to be cascading toward a retest of 50DMA support. However, Friday’s close suggests it may be ready for another bounce first.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) continued its resilience. GLD ROSE through the week and even went higher on Friday before fading into a slightly negative close. Given the surging rate expectations, I would have expected GLD to fall. I guess the dollar’s weakness helped gold stay aloft.<\/p>\n


\n
\"SPDR<\/a>
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is still going strong with resolute buyers. Printing a fresh 13-month high was a signature moment.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I am not sure yet what to make of this combination of events. So I am looking for confirmation of this change in behavior in the coming week. The Fed’s next monetary policy statement later in March should provide more clues. <\/p>\n

In the meantime, I am also looking at oil as the potential wildcard underpinning a changing landscape. On January 22, 2016, I claimed that the United States Oil (USO) looked like it was printing a bottom that should be more sustainable than the ones from 2015. On February 11, USO marginally violated that bottom but has increased steadily since then (along with the price of oil of course). I have to believe that growing confidence in the staying power of oil prices will ripple throughout financial markets in supporting the changing relationships I noted above.<\/p>\n


\n
\"United<\/a>
United States Oil (USO) may have finally printed a more sustainable bottom.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource of charts: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

February 11th is important for a multitude of reasons (additional charts below):<\/p>\n