{"id":33268,"date":"2016-06-05T18:59:35","date_gmt":"2016-06-06T01:59:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=33268"},"modified":"2016-06-05T18:59:35","modified_gmt":"2016-06-06T01:59:35","slug":"market-sentiment-still-supporting-higher-gold-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/06\/05\/market-sentiment-still-supporting-higher-gold-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Sentiment Still Supporting Higher Gold Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 22, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sometimes the test of a change in sentiment is not in the pace of the new trend, but instead in the behavior after that trend first gets tested.<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"GLD's<\/a>
GLD’s run-up from 6-year lows practically went parabolic before ending in a large gap down.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n
\n
\"This<\/a>
This long-term view of the price of gold is a handy reminder of how good we gold bulls have had things since the lows of the early 2000s<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Ice Benchmark Administration, Gold Fixing Price 3:00 P.M. (London time) in London Bullion Market, based in U.S. Dollars [GOLDPMGBD228NLBM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, February 21, 2016.<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Market sentiment is working in the background to support the move in GLD. {snip} The main principle is simple: if the Google Trend for “buy gold” makes a local peak concurrent with an extreme in the price of gold, then odds favor a reversal in direction. This rule applies whether gold has made an extreme move lower or an extreme move higher. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Interest<\/a>
Interest in “buy gold” makes a minor peak during the last peak in the price of gold.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Google Trends<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

I have also recently noticed that the timeframe of the view matters. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The monthly view of “buy gold” in Google Trends reveals that traders could have declared a bottom in gold in November. December’s weekly spike would have then served as a confirmation.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Google Trends<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Some folks get twisted up trying to look for consistency over time in the way investors and traders assess their willingness to pay for gold. I addressed this in my critique of the “Golden Dilemma<\/a>.” {snip}<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The volatility index has struggled mightily to push past the intraday high of 2012 even as market fears have presumably skyrocketed.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I have lately closely watched the market’s expectations for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The market’s rate expectations have essentially collapsed in less than a month<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: CME Group Fedwatch<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Another interesting development is the gold to oil ratio. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Gold<\/a>
Gold has soared in value relative to oil to an all-time high.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Ice Benchmark Administration, Gold Fixing Price 3:00 P.M. (London time) in London Bullion Market, based in U.S. Dollars [GOLDPMGBD228NLBM], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, February 21, 2016.
\nUS. Energy Information Administration, Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – Cushing, Oklahoma [DCOILWTICO], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, February 21, 2016.<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Traditionally, gold would be considered “over-valued” at such lofty levels versus oil. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"United<\/a>
United States Oil (USO) has fared a lot worse than GLD recently. USO has also yet to generate a convincing bounce off all=time lows.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Even if gold cannot help pull oil out of its funk, it may already be supporting other major commodities. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Iron<\/a>
Iron ore has soared recently off major lows.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Business Insider Australia<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Like oil, the market dynamics for iron ore are much different than gold. Iron ore has been trapped in a self-reinforcing spiral of over-supply<\/a>. {snip}<\/p>\n

Click image for a larger view…<\/strong><\/em>
\n


\n
\"Gold<\/a>
Gold has not led commodity prices higher since 2011. Could 2016 finally break this losing streak?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: U.S. Global Investors<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Finally, from a technical level, GLD can fall all the way to $109 or $100 before I start to worry about another false breakout for GLD. {snip}<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long GLD, long SVXY<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 22, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 22, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Sometimes the test of a change in sentiment is not in the pace of the new trend, but instead in the behavior after that trend first gets tested. {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,377],"tags":[200,24,1164,676,536,538,303],"class_list":["post-33268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-oil","tag-gld","tag-gold","tag-google-trends","tag-iron-ore","tag-oil-2","tag-uso","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"\nMarket Sentiment Still Supporting Higher Gold Prices - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/06\/05\/market-sentiment-still-supporting-higher-gold-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market Sentiment Still Supporting Higher Gold Prices - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 22, 2016. 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