{"id":33220,"date":"2016-02-17T23:25:50","date_gmt":"2016-02-18T07:25:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=33220"},"modified":"2016-02-17T23:26:07","modified_gmt":"2016-02-18T07:26:07","slug":"t2108-update-160217","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/02\/17\/t2108-update-160217\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (February 17, 2016) – Full Bull (FB) Part Two"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 39.9%
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 19.2%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 22.3
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: bullish
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #3 over 20%, Day #2 over 30% (overperiod), Day #47 under 40%, Day #51 below 50%, Day #66 under 60%, Day #407 under 70%<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nOn January 28, 2016, Facebook (FB) gained 15.5% in a post-earnings move that I described as “full bull<\/a>.” The bullishness of the day was confirmed when T2108 finally exited an excruciating oversold period the following day<\/a>. I am calling this day, February 17, 2016, “Full Bull (FB) Part Two” because FB has recovered from a near complete reversal of all its post-earnings gain to close above its 50-day moving average. This bullish move comes after six straight trading days testing and retesting resistance at the 50DMA only to get turned back.<\/p>\n


\n
\"This<\/a>
This close-up of Facebook (FB) shows how the stock almost gave up its entire monster post-earnings gain and then struggled mightily to fight 50DMA resistance. The close above resistance positions FB to make a fresh run to regain its post-earnings luster.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The road ahead to confirm FB’s bullish move will not (should not?) be nearly as easy as Full Bull Part One. On the positive side, T2108 soared for a third straight day demonstrating broad participation in this current bounce from oversold trading conditions. At 39.9%, T2108 closed exactly at the peak of December’s bounce from oversold conditions.<\/p>\n


\n
\"T2108<\/a>
T2108 is putting on an impressive display of strength. Can it now hurdle over critical resistance and FINALLY close above 40%?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

T2108 is right at critical resistance just as other key indicators are at critical testing points.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 (SPY) printed its first 3-day gain since December. The index is staring down resistance from the last high in late January.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 has finally strung together an impressive 3-day rally. Resistance is directly overhead from January’s high and the downtrending 50DMA.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The volatility index, the VIX, is also facing an important test; this is a test of support.<\/p>\n


\n
\"If<\/a>
If the VIX survives this test of support, it will likely be time to brace for a freshly imminent sell-off in the stock market.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I used this further plunge in volatility to lock in profits on my put options on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY).<\/p>\n

This continued rally surprised me because overnight trading going into the U.S. session featured a resurgent Japanese yen (FXY) and weakening Australian dollar (FXA). For whatever reason, they both turned around and delivered a supportive rally in AUD\/JPY. Note however, the recovery was NOT complete and, like the S&P 500, AUD\/JPY faces resistance from a rapidly declining 50DMA.<\/p>\n


\n
\"AUD\/JPY<\/a>
AUD\/JPY recovers from a bearish drawdown but has not quite provided a freshly bullish signal.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I will conclude here with a chart of Tesla Motors (TSLA). This is one of similar charts of individual stocks surging from recent lows. This move surprised me as I expected TSLA to struggle like other big stocks in the wake of their earnings. Instead, TSLA showed off some of its old flair with a monster 8.7% gain which looks to erase the bad taste of a 2-year low. TSLA is in the open field with a fresh post-earnings high, a fully bullish move.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Tesla<\/a>
Tesla Motors (TSLA) is soaring again.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

— – —<\/p>\n

For readers interested in reviewing my trading rules for T2108, please see my post in the wake of the August Angst, “How To Profit From An EPIC Oversold Period<\/a>“, and\/or review my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (U.S. dollar)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).
\nIBB<\/a> (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology).<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nRelated links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO call options, long SSO shares, long SVXY shares, short AUD\/JPY, short FB (hedge)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,599,512,511,62],"tags":[943,65,226,1597,887,303,931],"class_list":["post-33220","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakout","category-internet","category-resistance","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-fb","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-tsla","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (February 17, 2016) - Full Bull (FB) Part Two - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/02\/17\/t2108-update-160217\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (February 17, 2016) - Full Bull (FB) Part Two - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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