{"id":32914,"date":"2016-02-02T22:35:37","date_gmt":"2016-02-03T06:35:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=32914"},"modified":"2016-02-02T22:35:37","modified_gmt":"2016-02-03T06:35:37","slug":"far-reaching-ripples-from-japans-newly-negative-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/02\/02\/far-reaching-ripples-from-japans-newly-negative-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Far-Reaching Ripples From Japan&#8217;s Newly Negative Rates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 1, 2016. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3853466-far-reaching-ripples-japans-newly-negative-rates\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/press\/monetary\/20160127a.htm\" target=\"_blank\">On Wednesday, January 27th<\/a>, the U.S. Federal Reserve stared down volatile conditions in financial markets and decided to avoid addressing them directly. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>When the Bank of Japan (BoJ) came up to bat almost two days later, the BoJ made very clear its concerns about global economic and financial developments. From &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.boj.or.jp\/en\/announcements\/release_2016\/k160129a.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Introduction of &#8216;Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with a Negative Interest Rate&#8217;<\/a>&#8220;:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>This concern convinced the BoJ to add interest rates to the monetary policy formerly called Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE). The vote was a close 5-4 decision that sent interest rates negative in a tiered fashion similar to the method used by the Swiss National Bank:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>In other words, the BoJ has added its own confirmation that <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3530716-it-is-a-low-rate-world-get-used-to-it\" target=\"_blank\">this is indeed a low-rate world<\/a>. The ripples from this confirmation are far-reaching and particularly important for traders in financial markets.<\/p>\n<p>The impact on the Japanese yen (FXY) was immediate but yen-buyers tried to put up a fight. After all, the BoJ cannot wipe away all the panic and fear in the market that drives traders and investors to prefer &#8220;safety&#8221; in the yen.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32907\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32907\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160129_USDJPY.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32907\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160129_USDJPY.png\" alt=\"And just like that, the breakdown for USD\/JPY ends. \" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32907\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160129_USDJPY.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160129_USDJPY-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32907\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">And just like that, the breakdown for USD\/JPY ends.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32908\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32908\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160129_USDJPY-5min.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32908\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160129_USDJPY-5min.png\" alt=\"Traders faded the first trigger reaction to the BoJ announcement. The resumption of yen selling should become a defining theme for coming weeks or more.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32908\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160129_USDJPY-5min.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160129_USDJPY-5min-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32908\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Traders faded the first trigger reaction to the BoJ announcement. The resumption of yen selling should become a defining theme for coming weeks or more.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>With the BoJ taking action, the U.S. Federal Reserve is even more isolated on the island of policy divergence. It is hard to imagine that the Fed will continue hiking rates when all its peers in major central banks are officially in or have been in full retreat on monetary policy. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32901\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32901\" style=\"width: 473px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160130_FedFundsFutures.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32901\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160130_FedFundsFutures.png\" alt=\"The market now expects the next rate hike to come in 11 months!  The marginal 52.8% probability represents a dramatic change from just two days ago post-Fed.\" width=\"483\" height=\"310\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32901\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160130_FedFundsFutures.png 483w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160130_FedFundsFutures-300x193.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 483px) 100vw, 483px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32901\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The market now expects the next rate hike to come in 11 months! The marginal 52.8% probability represents a dramatic change from just two days ago post-Fed.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/interest-rates\/countdown-to-fomc.html\" target=\"_blank\">CME Group FedWatch<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Currency speculators also found themselves trapped on an island &#8211; this one an island of yen bullishness. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32910\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32910\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160130_cot-USD_JPY.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32910\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160130_cot-USD_JPY.png\" alt=\"The Bank of Japan caught speculators flat-footed: they were in the middle of ramping net longs to levels last seen in late 2012. Since then, not a single week had even featured net long positions.\" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32910\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160130_cot-USD_JPY.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160130_cot-USD_JPY-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160130_cot-USD_JPY-300x300.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32910\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Bank of Japan caught speculators flat-footed: they were in the middle of ramping net longs to levels last seen in late 2012. Since then, not a single week had even featured net long positions.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.oanda.com\/forex-trading\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>This episode hits the &#8220;pause button&#8221; on the warning I wrote at the beginning of the year in &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/01\/04\/the-japanese-yen-flashes-red-for-2016\/\" target=\"_blank\">The Japanese Yen Flashes Red for 2016<\/a>.&#8221; {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32912\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32912\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160129_AUDJPY.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32912\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160129_AUDJPY.png\" alt=\"AUD\/JPY continues a sharp bounce from recent 3-year lows as market sentiment is trending upward.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32912\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160129_AUDJPY.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/160129_AUDJPY-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32912\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">AUD\/JPY continues a sharp bounce from recent 3-year lows as market sentiment is trending upward.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 1, 2016. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3853466-far-reaching-ripples-japans-newly-negative-rates\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 1, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Wednesday, January 27th, the U.S. Federal Reserve stared down volatile conditions in financial markets and decided to avoid addressing them directly. {snip} When the Bank of Japan (BoJ) came up &#8230; <a title=\"Far-Reaching Ripples From Japan&#8217;s Newly Negative Rates\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/02\/02\/far-reaching-ripples-from-japans-newly-negative-rates\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,204],"tags":[772,310,420,1547,1595,513,138,454],"class_list":["post-32914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-japan","tag-audjpy","tag-australian-dollar","tag-bank-of-japan","tag-fed-funds-futures","tag-federal-reserve","tag-fxy","tag-japanese-yen","tag-usdjpy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Far-Reaching Ripples From Japan&#039;s Newly Negative Rates - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/02\/02\/far-reaching-ripples-from-japans-newly-negative-rates\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Far-Reaching Ripples From Japan&#039;s Newly Negative Rates - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 1, 2016. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) On Wednesday, January 27th, the U.S. Federal Reserve stared down volatile conditions in financial markets and decided to avoid addressing them directly. {snip} When the Bank of Japan (BoJ) came up ... 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