{"id":32821,"date":"2016-01-28T00:29:11","date_gmt":"2016-01-28T08:29:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=32821"},"modified":"2016-01-28T00:31:31","modified_gmt":"2016-01-28T08:31:31","slug":"t2108-update-160127","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/01\/28\/t2108-update-160127\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (January 27, 2016) – A Post-Fed Stalemate"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 14.9%
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 14.9%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 23.1 (ranged from 20.4 to 27.2)
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: bullish
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #14 under 20%, Day #17 under 30%, Day #33 under 40%, Day #37 below 50%, Day #52 under 60%, Day #393 under 70%<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nThe Federal Reserve delivered the perfect “no new news” statement<\/a>. It defied my expectation for delivering something substantial relative to the current context of market volatility<\/a>. Media outlets of course tried to make headlines out of the Fed’s latest pronouncements on monetary policy, but fundamentally, nothing changed. The Fed reiterated its data-dependent approach to normalizing rates at a snail’s pace. It was a stalemate kind of day as a result. Notably, the trend pushing out the date of the next rate hike continued: September is now the first month where the odds go above 50%. Media outlets that claim the Fed’s statement keeps a March rate hike in play are off-base.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The market now expects the first rate hike in September.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: CME Group Fedwatch<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"SPDR<\/a>
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is following the momentum in rate expectations: the further the push-out, the higher GLD goes…for now.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), nudged downward to 14.9% after ranging from 13.1% to 17.7%. At one point, the S&P 500 (SPY) was making a breakout move at its highs -an end to the oversold period seemed near. Instead, the index closed down 1.1% to stay within a tight 4-day trading range of alternating up and down days. <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 (SPY) stays stuck in churn mode after failing to hold a breakout.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The volatility index, the VIX, experienced the most dramatic stalemate. It ranged from 20.4 to 27.2 before closing with a mere 2.7% gain. This means my pre-Fed fade of volatility<\/a> is actually not likely to work this time around. <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The volatility index closes with a minimal response to the Fed<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Much bigger and more important than the Fed for the regular trading day were Apple (AAPL) and Netflix (NFLX).<\/p>\n

Like the last earnings cycle<\/a>, Apple opened for post-earnings trading on a Fed day. Apple (AAPL) closed down 6.6%. It was a move consistent with the Apple pre-earnings trade<\/a> and confirmed that AAPL remains a very sick stock<\/a>. The following commentary on China put as good a face as possible on Apple’s business there, but the softening in Hong Kong caught the headlines (emphasis mine, quote from Seeking Alpha transcripts<\/a>):<\/p>\n

“We know the conditions in China have been a source of concern for many investors. Last summer, while many companies were experiencing weakness in their China-based results, we were seeing just the opposite, with incredible momentum for iPhone, Mac and the App Store, in particular.<\/p>\n

In the December quarter, despite the turbulent environment, we produced our best results ever in Greater China, with revenue growing 14% over last year, 47% sequentially, and 17% year-over-year in constant currency. These great results were fueled by our highest ever quarterly iPhone sales and record App Store performance.<\/p>\n

Notwithstanding these record results, we began to see some signs of economic softness in Greater China earlier this month, most notably in Hong Kong.<\/strong> Beyond the short-term volatility, we remain very confident about the long-term potential of the China market and the large opportunities ahead of us and we are maintaining our investment plans.<\/p>\n

Despite the economic challenges all over the world, Apple remains incredibly strong.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n


\n
\"Apple<\/a>
Apple (AAPL) collapses after reporting earnings to a new 17-month low.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The market has already become accustomed to a weak Apple. However, the growing weakness in Netflix (NFLX) is something new. The post-earnings fade in NFLX continues with a confirmed 200DMA breakdown.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Netflix<\/a>
Netflix (NFLX) has not closed this low since the summer of 2015<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Now the big question: is market leadership and participation narrowing even further or are new leaders emerging? How long can NFLX and the general stock market continue to diverge? Which one will blink first?<\/p>\n

— – —<\/p>\n

For readers interested in reviewing my trading rules for T2108, please see my post in the wake of the August Angst, “How To Profit From An EPIC Oversold Period<\/a>“, and\/or review my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (U.S. dollar)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).
\nIBB<\/a> (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology).<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nRelated links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SVXY shares, long and short UVXY put options, long SSO call options, long SSO shares, long GLD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,219,599,62],"tags":[250,200,405,65,226,1597,303],"class_list":["post-32821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-high-tech","category-internet","category-technical-analysis","tag-aapl","tag-gld","tag-nflx","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (January 27, 2016) - A Post-Fed Stalemate - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/01\/28\/t2108-update-160127\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (January 27, 2016) - A Post-Fed Stalemate - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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