{"id":32281,"date":"2015-12-30T01:12:55","date_gmt":"2015-12-30T09:12:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=32281"},"modified":"2015-12-30T02:20:18","modified_gmt":"2015-12-30T10:20:18","slug":"t2108-update-151229","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/12\/30\/t2108-update-151229\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (December 29, 2015) – A Convergence of Indicators May Signal A Firming Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 39.8%
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 31.1%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 16.1
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: bullish – see below for caveats
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #10 over 20%, Day #4 over 30% (overperiod), Day #14 under 40% (underperiod), Day #18 below 50%, Day #33 under 60%, Day #374 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).
\nIBB<\/a> (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nThe S&P 500 (SPY) is flat for December. The index is up a mere 0.9% year-to-date – close to contradicting the “January barometer” once again<\/a>. The Santa Claus rally<\/a> is a clear winner with a 3.2% gain so far. Most importantly, the S&P 500 once again closed above its 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs). The index is even (marginally) at a post-Fed high. Only a short-term downtrend divides the index between yet more churn and a potentially important breakout.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Is<\/a>
Is the S&P 500 setting up for a big breakout or more churn and disappointment?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The NASDAQ (QQQ) experienced a cleaner breakout above 50DMA resistance but it also now faces critical resistance looming overhead from a short-term trendline connecting the last two peaks.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The NASDAQ is trying to make another move.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

T2108<\/a>, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, closed strong at 39.8%. This level is a three-week high. T2108 confirms the bullishness of the S&P 500 which also closed at a 3-week high. T2107<\/a>, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, is even adding its weight to the general bullishness. At 31.1%, T2107 is also at a 3-week high.<\/p>\n

The volatility index, the VIX, is a lingering holdout. It is hovering above the critical 15.35 pivot. This pivot has served as general support for over two months now. <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The volatility index is hovering just above a bullish breakdown…<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Finally, the U.S. dollar index is trading around and below its pre-Fed level. This lackluster support for the dollar suggests a lack of excitement for the potential of extended policy divergence going into 2016. Conventional wisdom says that a “calm” dollar is good for the stock market. I think the calm may at least benefit sentiment and those who chase “risk on” trades. However, I am looking to buy future dips in the dollar.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Will<\/a>
Will the uptrending 50DMA be enough to tease the U.S. dollar higher and resume the very brief post-Fed momentum.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

So as 2015 comes to a close, the stock market is delivering a convergence of indicators pointing to a breakout start to 2016. T2108 certainly has some room to run toward overbought levels (70%). For bullish confirmation, I am looking for the S&P 500 to print a strong close above the downtrend line pointed out above. I am still getting over my surprise that the index managed to close so strongly above combined resistance at the 50 and 200DMAs.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) recently caught my attention after it reduced guidance on December 23rd. I have been watching one retail stock after another crater since October<\/a>. BBBY is one I should have had on my radar earlier. The stock made a “slow motion” double top over the first 3 1\/2 months or so of 2015. A sell-off in November confirmed the double-top.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Bed<\/a>
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) continues to sink in what looks like a major topping pattern.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

On the other hand, I HAVE checked-in periodically on fallen angel Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT). It looks like value investors may FINALLY be nibbling on the stock. <\/p>\n


\n
\"Wal-Mart<\/a>
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) has stopped bleeding. A gap up and a drift above 50DMA resistance my be signalling a more sustainable bottom.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

WMT’s bleeding appears to have ended. The stock gapped up when WMT delivered guidance in November and has managed to drift above 50DMA resistance since then. The stock even survived a gap fill on December 2nd. While a bottom is far from confirmed until WMT reverses the awful sell-off from October, it seems that it is time to “celebrate with the buyers” per the method I laid out for bottom-fishing<\/a>. The stop on WMT would be a new 4-year low at $56 or lower. A more conservative stop-loss sits at $58 which would once again fill the November gap-up and break the most recent low.<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nRelated links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: net long the U.S. dollar, long UVXY put options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,20,338,62,21],"tags":[932,299,413,535,65,226,1597,1591,303,931,1177],"class_list":["post-32281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakout","category-forex","category-retail","category-technical-analysis","category-u-s-dollar","tag-bbby","tag-dxy0","tag-nasdaq","tag-qqq","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-u-s-dollar","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index","tag-wmt"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (December 29, 2015) - A Convergence of Indicators May Signal A Firming Market - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/12\/30\/t2108-update-151229\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (December 29, 2015) - A Convergence of Indicators May Signal A Firming Market - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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