{"id":32260,"date":"2015-12-30T00:16:21","date_gmt":"2015-12-30T08:16:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=32260"},"modified":"2015-12-30T00:16:37","modified_gmt":"2015-12-30T08:16:37","slug":"lgi-homes-faces-critical-tests-as-it-races-to-reduce-dependence-on-oil-related-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/12\/30\/lgi-homes-faces-critical-tests-as-it-races-to-reduce-dependence-on-oil-related-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"LGI Homes Faces Critical Tests As It Races to Reduce Dependence On Oil-Related Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 29, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3779816-lgi-homes-faces-critical-tests-as-it-races-to-reduce-dependence-on-oil-related-markets\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In mid-September, I wrote &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3501296-lgi-homes-is-now-a-bit-hot-to-the-touch\" target=\"_blank\">LGI Homes Is Now A Bit Hot To The Touch<\/a>.&#8221; LGI Homes (LGIH) is down 18% since then. LGIH also hit an all-time high on December 1st that represented a 25% gain from the point of my article. The descent since that all-time high has been dramatic and has occurred on very high selling volume.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32261\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32261\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151224_LGIH.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32261\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151224_LGIH.png\" alt=\"LGIH has almost completely reversed its post-earnings gains from August\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32261\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151224_LGIH.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151224_LGIH-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32261\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">LGIH has almost completely reversed its post-earnings gains from August<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32266\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32266\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151224_LGIHvsITB.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32266\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151224_LGIHvsITB.png\" alt=\"After August earnings, LGIH sprinted away from the pack of home builders. That out-performance has quickly come to an end.\" width=\"520\" height=\"318\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32266\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151224_LGIHvsITB.png 520w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151224_LGIHvsITB-300x183.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32266\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">After August earnings, LGIH sprinted away from the pack of home builders. That out-performance has quickly come to an end.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=LGIH%3AITB&#038;p=D&#038;yr=2&#038;mn=2&#038;dy=0&#038;id=p69538315753\" target=\"_blank\">StockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>As promised, I sold my position in LGIH shortly after publishing <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3501296-lgi-homes-is-now-a-bit-hot-to-the-touch\" target=\"_blank\">the September article on LGIH<\/a>. Since I prefer to follow a buy-the-dip strategy when it comes to the stocks of home builders, I am now left to wonder whether the current selling in LGIH creates a new buying opportunity. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>There are no smoking guns to explain the selling from the recent <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sec.gov\/cgi-bin\/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&#038;CIK=0001580670&#038;owner=exclude&#038;count=40&#038;hidefilings=0\" target=\"_blank\">SEC fillings<\/a> for LGIH. The company has not had any troubling <a href=\"http:\/\/investor.lgihomes.com\/releases.cfm\" target=\"_blank\">press releases<\/a>. In fact, <a href=\"http:\/\/investor.lgihomes.com\/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=945316\" target=\"_blank\">on December 2, LGIH once again reported another month of strong home closings<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>LGIH has produced a slight overhang to its stock as the company is a net seller. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>One likely correlation to LGIH&#8217;s drop is the acceleration in the plunge in oil prices. <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/12\/08\/opec-slams-the-oil-patch-a-quick-look-at-the-reverberations\/\" target=\"_blank\">I first pointed out LGIH&#8217;s vulnerability to the fresh decline in oil back on December 8th<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32246\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32246\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151224_oilprices.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32246\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151224_oilprices.png\" alt=\"Oil prices continue to collapse.\" width=\"550\" height=\"365\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32246\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151224_oilprices.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151224_oilprices-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32246\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Oil prices continue to collapse.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\nSource: <strong>US. Energy Information Administration, Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) &#8211; Cushing, Oklahoma [DCOILWTICO], <a href=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/series\/DCOILWTICO\/\" target=\"_blank\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, December 24, 2015.<br \/>\nUS. Energy Information Administration, Crude Oil Prices: Brent &#8211; Europe [DCOILBRENTEU], <a href=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/series\/DCOILBRENTEU\/\" target=\"_blank\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, December 24, 2015.<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Since LGIH has previously proven resilient to oil&#8217;s collapse, a more precise assessment might include the impact of OPEC&#8217;s last production meeting. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The link between LGIH and oil is the company&#8217;s heavy share of business in Texas and Houston in particular. This connection is another big test for LGIH. Fortunately, this dependence is in decline. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long ITB call options<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 29, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3779816-lgi-homes-faces-critical-tests-as-it-races-to-reduce-dependence-on-oil-related-markets\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 29, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) In mid-September, I wrote &#8220;LGI Homes Is Now A Bit Hot To The Touch.&#8221; LGI Homes (LGIH) is down 18% since then. LGIH also hit an all-time high on December 1st &#8230; <a title=\"LGI Homes Faces Critical Tests As It Races to Reduce Dependence On Oil-Related Markets\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/12\/30\/lgi-homes-faces-critical-tests-as-it-races-to-reduce-dependence-on-oil-related-markets\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,35],"tags":[1593,1350,1206,1450,1449],"class_list":["post-32260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-housing","tag-housing","tag-ishares-us-home-construction","tag-itb","tag-lgi-homes","tag-lgih"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>LGI Homes Faces Critical Tests As It Races to Reduce Dependence On Oil-Related Markets - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/12\/30\/lgi-homes-faces-critical-tests-as-it-races-to-reduce-dependence-on-oil-related-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"LGI Homes Faces Critical Tests As It Races to Reduce Dependence On Oil-Related Markets - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 29, 2015. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) In mid-September, I wrote &#8220;LGI Homes Is Now A Bit Hot To The Touch.&#8221; LGI Homes (LGIH) is down 18% since then. LGIH also hit an all-time high on December 1st ... 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