{"id":32225,"date":"2015-12-22T00:53:48","date_gmt":"2015-12-22T08:53:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=32225"},"modified":"2015-12-22T00:54:54","modified_gmt":"2015-12-22T08:54:54","slug":"speculators-abandon-their-bearish-posts-against-the-australian-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/12\/22\/speculators-abandon-their-bearish-posts-against-the-australian-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Speculators Abandon Their Bearish Posts Against the Australian Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3762076-rate-hike-relief-paves-the-way-for-a-stronger-dollar-and-a-december-bottom-for-stocks\" target=\"_blank\">Policy divergence has officially begun<\/a>, yet markets face the interesting possibility of an Australian dollar (FXA) that refuses to weaken further against the U.S. dollar for now.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32226\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32226\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151221_AUDUSD.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32226\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151221_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar may be done going down for now post-Fed\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32226\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151221_AUDUSD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151221_AUDUSD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32226\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar may be done going down for now post-Fed<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The above chart shows that the Australian dollar weakened for just one full day in the wake of the rate hike from the Federal Reserve. AUD\/USD has now bounced back and is trading above its 50-day moving average (DMA) again. AUD\/USD has even reversed most of its post-Fed losses. Moreover, the Australian dollar is nowhere near its recent lows; the current bounce marks a third higher low from September&#8217;s multi-year low. The main outstanding question now is whether overhead resistance will hold at the Oct\/Dec double-top and\/or the declining 200DMA.<\/p>\n<p>Speculators may be supporting this resilience. These traders have been in retreat on their net short positions against the Australian dollar since peak bearishness in mid-November. Now, traders are essentially net neutral.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32228\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32228\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151221_cot-AUD_USD-e1450773318757.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32228\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151221_cot-AUD_USD-e1450773318757.png\" alt=\"Speculators have spent the last month or so retreating from net bearish positions against the Australian dollar.\" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32228\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32228\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Speculators have spent the last month or so retreating from net bearish positions against the Australian dollar.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/fxtrade.oanda.com\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>On top of this retreat, iron ore prices are now bouncing off multi-year (historic) lows set on December 11th. Iron ore is back to prices last seen on December 3rd. For example, see &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com.au\/iron-ore-has-risen-again-2015-12\" target=\"_blank\">Iron ore has risen again<\/a>&#8221; from Business Insider Australia:<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com.au\/iron-ore-has-risen-again-2015-12\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/edge.alluremedia.com.au\/uploads\/businessinsider\/2015\/12\/MBIOI62-Dec-22.jpg\" width=\"550\" height=\"409\" alt=\"The bounce in iron ore is but a blip but could be sufficient to further support more positive sentiment toward the Australian dollar.\" class \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">The bounce in iron ore is but a blip but could be sufficient to further support more positive sentiment toward the Australian dollar.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com.au\/iron-ore-has-risen-again-2015-12\" target=\"_blank\">Business Insider Australia<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>All these moves set up the Australian dollar for a &#8220;mild&#8221; end to the year. However, I fully expect that the new year will bring back strategic and even longer-term positioning in preparation for an eventual fresh downward run for the Australian dollar. <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/30\/small-statement-changes-bolster-dovish-policy-from-the-reserve-bank-of-australia\/\" target=\"_blank\">The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already made its dovishness clear<\/a>. The RBA has not been as direct and forthright as other dovish central banks about the desire to ride policy divergence to a weaker currency against the U.S. dollar, but the Bank appears to expect Fed rate hikes to do some of their heavy lifting of currency devaluation. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3698036-a-bottom-for-commodities-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-says-no-fortescue-says-yes\" target=\"_blank\">Australia still needs this devaluation to counter-act the on-going decline in the terms of trade from plunging commodity prices<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net short the Australian dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Policy divergence has officially begun, yet markets face the interesting possibility of an Australian dollar (FXA) that refuses to weaken further against the U.S. dollar for now. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The above chart shows that the Australian dollar weakened for just one full day in the wake of the rate hike from the Federal Reserve. AUD\/USD &#8230; <a title=\"Speculators Abandon Their Bearish Posts Against the Australian Dollar\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/12\/22\/speculators-abandon-their-bearish-posts-against-the-australian-dollar\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,199,20],"tags":[308,310,309,676],"class_list":["post-32225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-commodities","category-forex","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-fxa","tag-iron-ore"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Speculators Abandon Their Bearish Posts Against the Australian Dollar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/12\/22\/speculators-abandon-their-bearish-posts-against-the-australian-dollar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Speculators Abandon Their Bearish Posts Against the Australian Dollar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Policy divergence has officially begun, yet markets face the interesting possibility of an Australian dollar (FXA) that refuses to weaken further against the U.S. dollar for now. 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