{"id":31901,"date":"2016-01-30T16:55:10","date_gmt":"2016-01-31T00:55:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=31901"},"modified":"2016-01-30T16:55:10","modified_gmt":"2016-01-31T00:55:10","slug":"the-seasonal-trade-on-home-builders-faces-shaky-prospects","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/01\/30\/the-seasonal-trade-on-home-builders-faces-shaky-prospects\/","title":{"rendered":"The Seasonal Trade On Home Builders Faces Shaky Prospects"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 13, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3752276-the-seasonal-trade-on-home-builders-faces-shaky-prospects\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Almost a month ago, <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.barrons.com\/stockstowatchtoday\/2015\/11\/16\/tis-the-season-for-home-builders\/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_stw\" target=\"_blank\">analysts from KBW described a seasonal trade on home builders<\/a>. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>I took a slightly different perspective on this seasonality to make the pattern stand out and understand its performance when it fails. <a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/0B7LPxp0nWPsSUl9CQVduYUIyNUE\/view?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\">I calculated a compound, annualized return starting from the last trading day of October to the last day of subsequent months<\/a>. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32081\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32081\" style=\"width: 476px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_AnnualizedITBPerformanceFromOct.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32081\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_AnnualizedITBPerformanceFromOct.png\" alt=\"By itself, iShares US Home Construction (ITB) exhibits a strong seasonal pattern with a majority of gains occurring in the Fall and\/or Winter.\" width=\"486\" height=\"596\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32081\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_AnnualizedITBPerformanceFromOct.png 486w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_AnnualizedITBPerformanceFromOct-245x300.png 245w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 486px) 100vw, 486px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32081\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">By itself, iShares US Home Construction (ITB) exhibits a strong seasonal pattern with a majority of gains occurring in the Fall and\/or Winter.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_32080\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32080\" style=\"width: 476px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_AnnualizedITBOverSPYPerformanceFromOct.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32080\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_AnnualizedITBOverSPYPerformanceFromOct.png\" alt=\"The iShares US Home Construction (ITB) tends to outperform the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) most in the Fall and\/or Winter.\" width=\"486\" height=\"594\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_AnnualizedITBOverSPYPerformanceFromOct.png 486w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_AnnualizedITBOverSPYPerformanceFromOct-245x300.png 245w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 486px) 100vw, 486px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32080\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The iShares US Home Construction (ITB) tends to outperform the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) most in the Fall and\/or Winter.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for prices: <a href=\"http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q\/hp?s=ITB+Historical+Prices\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo Finance<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>It is clear that the maximum absolute and relative returns on ITB are generally realized by February or March starting from the end of October. However, a trading rule that exits positions after performance reaches a certain threshold regardless of month may be even more effective than a strict calendar-based rule. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>This year&#8217;s seasonal trade may face a monetary policy which for the first time in 9 years will not be moving in favor of housing. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Earnings reports from home builders are an ever present wildcard impacting the seasonal trade. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Fortunately, TOL did not take down the whole sector. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_32077\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32077\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_TOL.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32077\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_TOL.png\" alt=\"Toll Brothers (TOL) hs chopped around for all of 2015 and is now flat on the year. The last 2 earnings releases have delivered definitive drags on the stock.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32077\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_TOL.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_TOL-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32077\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Toll Brothers (TOL) hs chopped around for all of 2015 and is now flat on the year. The last 2 earnings releases have delivered definitive drags on the stock.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_32076\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-32076\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_ITB.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-32076\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_ITB.png\" alt=\"The iShares US Home Construction (ITB) has had a slight upward bias for the year with the 200-day moving average providing general support.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-32076\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_ITB.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/151211_ITB-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-32076\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The iShares US Home Construction (ITB) has had a slight upward bias for the year with the 200-day moving average providing general support.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>TOL did not offer any specific guesses about the 2016 Spring selling season. However, it is quite clear that management is as bullish as ever about future prospects. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long ITB call options<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 13, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3752276-the-seasonal-trade-on-home-builders-faces-shaky-prospects\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 13, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost a month ago, analysts from KBW described a seasonal trade on home builders. {snip} I took a slightly different perspective on this seasonality to make the pattern stand out and &#8230; <a title=\"The Seasonal Trade On Home Builders Faces Shaky Prospects\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/01\/30\/the-seasonal-trade-on-home-builders-faces-shaky-prospects\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,1210],"tags":[1593,1350,1206,37,148],"class_list":["post-31901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-housing","category-trading-model","tag-housing","tag-ishares-us-home-construction","tag-itb","tag-tol","tag-toll-brothers"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Seasonal Trade On Home Builders Faces Shaky Prospects - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/01\/30\/the-seasonal-trade-on-home-builders-faces-shaky-prospects\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Seasonal Trade On Home Builders Faces Shaky Prospects - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 13, 2015. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost a month ago, analysts from KBW described a seasonal trade on home builders. {snip} I took a slightly different perspective on this seasonality to make the pattern stand out and ... 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