{"id":31880,"date":"2015-12-02T01:14:39","date_gmt":"2015-12-02T09:14:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=31880"},"modified":"2015-12-02T01:14:39","modified_gmt":"2015-12-02T09:14:39","slug":"no-bottom-yet-for-gold-but-its-current-decline-should-soon-slow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/12\/02\/no-bottom-yet-for-gold-but-its-current-decline-should-soon-slow\/","title":{"rendered":"No Bottom Yet for Gold But Its Current Decline Should Soon Slow"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 29, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3718356-no-bottom-yet-for-gold-but-its-current-decline-should-soon-slow\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to hike interest rates in December. The Fed and economic data have finally convinced the market of an imminent rate hike, and <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/09\/26\/the-simple-calculus-for-the-timing-of-the-feds-first-rate-hike\/\" target=\"_blank\">the high odds allow the Fed to hike rates without worrying about creating any unwanted surprises<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31881\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31881\" style=\"width: 473px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151125_30DayFedFundsFutures.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151125_30DayFedFundsFutures.png\" alt=\"The odds of a Fed rate hike in December are very high and have greatly increased over the past month.\" width=\"483\" height=\"310\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31881\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151125_30DayFedFundsFutures.png 483w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151125_30DayFedFundsFutures-300x193.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 483px) 100vw, 483px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31881\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The odds of a Fed rate hike in December are very high and have greatly increased over the past month.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/interest-rates\/countdown-to-fomc.html\" target=\"_blank\">CME Group FedWatch<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The large jump in odds over the past month have coincided with a steep drop in gold (GLD) and a streak for the U.S. dollar (UUP) that has taken the index close to a fresh 12+ year high.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31883\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31883\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_GLD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_GLD.png\" alt=\"SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has repidly plunged in recent weeks to a 6-year low.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31883\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_GLD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_GLD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31883\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has repidly plunged in recent weeks to a 6-year low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_31882\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31882\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_DXY0.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_DXY0.png\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar index has soared in recent weeks. The most recent bottom followed weak retail and PPI data.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31882\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_DXY0.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_DXY0-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31882\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The U.S. dollar index has soared in recent weeks. The most recent bottom followed weak retail and PPI data.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The rate of increase in the odds has to slow down from here if the odds increase at all going into the December Fed meeting. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31886\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31886\" style=\"width: 473px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_RateHikeOddsDollarGold.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_RateHikeOddsDollarGold.png\" alt=\"Recent Rise in Rate Hike Odds Has Helped Drive the U.S. Dollar and Gold\" width=\"483\" height=\"291\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31886\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_RateHikeOddsDollarGold.png 483w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_RateHikeOddsDollarGold-300x181.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 483px) 100vw, 483px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31886\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Recent Rise in Rate Hike Odds Has Helped Drive the U.S. Dollar and Gold<br \/><\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Sources of data: Yahoo Finance, FreeStockCharts.com, and CME Group FedWatch<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The current situation looks extreme enough to warrant checking in on the sentiment tward gold for clues for future direction. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31888\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31888\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_BuySellGoldSearchTrendsSince2015.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_BuySellGoldSearchTrendsSince2015.png\" alt=\"No spike in gold sentiment since the July spike\" width=\"550\" height=\"272\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31888\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_BuySellGoldSearchTrendsSince2015.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_BuySellGoldSearchTrendsSince2015-300x148.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31888\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">No spike in gold sentiment since the July spike<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_31887\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31887\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_BuySellGoldSearchTrendsSince2004.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_BuySellGoldSearchTrendsSince2004.png\" alt=\"For perspective, while July&#039;s gold sentiment spike was notable, gold has experienced much larger ones in recent history.\" width=\"550\" height=\"271\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31887\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_BuySellGoldSearchTrendsSince2004.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_BuySellGoldSearchTrendsSince2004-300x148.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31887\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">For perspective, while July&#8217;s gold sentiment spike was notable, gold has experienced much larger ones in recent history.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/trends\/explore#q=buy%20gold%2C%20sell%20gold&#038;cmpt=q&#038;tz=Etc%2FGMT%2B8\" target=\"_blank\">Google Trends<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Note carefully that the sentiment framework does not <strong>require<\/strong> a spike in sentiment before gold tops or bottoms. Instead, it serves as strong evidence supporting a likely turning point. In other words, the gold sentiment framework is sufficient but not necessary for a major move.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long GLD, net long the U.S. dollar<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 29, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3718356-no-bottom-yet-for-gold-but-its-current-decline-should-soon-slow\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 29, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to hike interest rates in December. The Fed and economic data have finally convinced the market of an imminent rate hike, and the high odds &#8230; <a title=\"No Bottom Yet for Gold But Its Current Decline Should Soon Slow\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/12\/02\/no-bottom-yet-for-gold-but-its-current-decline-should-soon-slow\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,58,20,21],"tags":[1547,200,24,1591],"class_list":["post-31880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-federal-reserve","category-forex","category-u-s-dollar","tag-fed-funds-futures","tag-gld","tag-gold","tag-u-s-dollar"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>No Bottom Yet for Gold But Its Current Decline Should Soon Slow - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/12\/02\/no-bottom-yet-for-gold-but-its-current-decline-should-soon-slow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"No Bottom Yet for Gold But Its Current Decline Should Soon Slow - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 29, 2015. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to hike interest rates in December. The Fed and economic data have finally convinced the market of an imminent rate hike, and the high odds ... 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