{"id":31868,"date":"2015-11-27T08:48:18","date_gmt":"2015-11-27T16:48:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=31868"},"modified":"2015-11-27T08:49:14","modified_gmt":"2015-11-27T16:49:14","slug":"new-home-sales-cling-to-their-2015-breakout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/27\/new-home-sales-cling-to-their-2015-breakout\/","title":{"rendered":"New Home Sales Cling to Their 2015 Breakout"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Single-family new home sales began the year with a bang. Sales for January and February soared year-over-year and continued the post-recession breakout that occurred in December, 2014. Sales have trickled downward ever since.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31869\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31869\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_NewHomeSales.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_NewHomeSales.png\" alt=\"New home sales are just barely clinging to breakout territory\" width=\"550\" height=\"365\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31869\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_NewHomeSales.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_NewHomeSales-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31869\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">New home sales are just barely clinging to breakout territory<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: US. Bureau of the Census, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], <a href=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/series\/HSN1F\/\" target=\"_blank\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, November 26, 2015.<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday, November 25th, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrs\/pdf\/newressales_201510.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">the Census Bureau reported October, 2015 seasonally adjusted annualized new home sales at 495,000<\/a>. This is a 4.9% year-over-year gain and exactly back to December, 2014&#8217;s 495,000 new home sales. This is an important report because it maintains, just barely, the breakout in new home sales. However, the downtrend from the February peak remains in place.<\/p>\n<p>The Spring selling season is now around the corner and expectations are high. <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/19\/surge-sales-expectations-send-homebuilder-sentiment-to-10year-high\/\" target=\"_blank\">Homebuilder sentiment is riding high<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/20\/builders-back-up-sentiment-with-housing-starts\/\" target=\"_blank\">housing starts are rising to match<\/a>. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) has accordingly risen and even looks ready to challenge the post-recession and 8-year high hit in August. I daresay if not for <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/25\/t2108-update-150824\/\" target=\"_blank\">the August Angst<\/a>, ITB might still be riding its previous 2015 uptrend.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31871\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31871\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_ITB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_ITB.png\" alt=\"The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) is riding a strong November toward its 52-week and 8-year high\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31871\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_ITB.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_ITB-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31871\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) is riding a strong November toward its 52-week and 8-year high<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\nSource: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>As a result of ITB&#8217;s rise ahead of a very likely December rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, I fully expect homebuilder stocks to get particularly sensitive to hints into Spring selling season performance. Such hints would have to come from homebuilder reports.<\/p>\n<p>On a regional level, <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/20\/builders-back-up-sentiment-with-housing-starts\/\" target=\"_blank\">the apparent decline in Texas starts<\/a> could portend slower sales growth in the Southern region. I am always watching the economic numbers from this region these days given the collapse in the oil patch. New home sales for the South were up 5.2% year-over-year in October. The Northeast stuck out among the regions with a whopping 60% year-over-year surge. The 40,000 new home sales in the Northeast match levels last seen in January, 2010!<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31874\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31874\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_NewHomeSales-Northeast.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_NewHomeSales-Northeast.png\" alt=\"Is the Notheast finally ready to experience its own post-recession breakout in new home sales?\" width=\"550\" height=\"365\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31874\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_NewHomeSales-Northeast.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151127_NewHomeSales-Northeast-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31874\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Is the Notheast finally ready to experience its own post-recession breakout in new home sales?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: US. Bureau of the Census, New One Family Houses Sold in Northeast Census Region [HSN1FNE], <a href=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/series\/HSN1FNE\/\" target=\"_blank\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, November 27, 2015.<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long ITB call options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Single-family new home sales began the year with a bang. Sales for January and February soared year-over-year and continued the post-recession breakout that occurred in December, 2014. Sales have trickled downward ever since. Source: US. Bureau of the Census, New One Family Houses Sold: United States [HSN1F], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. &#8230; <a title=\"New Home Sales Cling to Their 2015 Breakout\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/27\/new-home-sales-cling-to-their-2015-breakout\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[1593,1350,1206],"class_list":["post-31868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-housing","tag-housing","tag-ishares-us-home-construction","tag-itb"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>New Home Sales Cling to Their 2015 Breakout - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/27\/new-home-sales-cling-to-their-2015-breakout\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New Home Sales Cling to Their 2015 Breakout - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Single-family new home sales began the year with a bang. 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