{"id":31860,"date":"2015-11-24T01:27:12","date_gmt":"2015-11-24T09:27:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=31860"},"modified":"2015-11-24T01:29:14","modified_gmt":"2015-11-24T09:29:14","slug":"us-dollar-flirts-with-multi-year-breakout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/24\/us-dollar-flirts-with-multi-year-breakout\/","title":{"rendered":"The U.S. Dollar Index Flirts With A Fresh Multi-Year Breakout"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. Dollar index hit 100 on an intraday basis for the first time since March 16th, the day after the index closed at a 12-year high. The index faded back to a close of 99.73 at the end of the U.S. trading day.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31861\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31861\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151123_DXY0.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151123_DXY0.png\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar index (DXY0) finally hits 100 again as it flirts with a fresh breakout\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31861\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151123_DXY0.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151123_DXY0-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31861\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The U.S. dollar index (DXY0) finally hits 100 again as it flirts with a fresh breakout<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The U.S. dollar&#8217;s steady, albeit slow, strengthening is happening in parallel to firming odds for a December rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve. <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31862\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31862\" style=\"width: 473px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151123_30DayFedFundsFutures.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151123_30DayFedFundsFutures.png\" alt=\"The 30-Day Fed Fund futures are essentially guaranteeing a rate hike in December. The odds have jumped considerably over the last month.\" width=\"483\" height=\"310\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31862\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151123_30DayFedFundsFutures.png 483w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151123_30DayFedFundsFutures-300x193.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 483px) 100vw, 483px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31862\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The 30-Day Fed Fund futures are essentially guaranteeing a rate hike in December. The odds have jumped considerably over the last month.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/interest-rates\/countdown-to-fomc.html\" target=\"_blank\">CME Group FedWatch<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I find it a bit reassuring that the market is not yet ready to play contrarian and fade the U.S. dollar ahead of the rate hike. Perhaps such &#8220;pricing in&#8221; will occur after the Fed actually hikes.<\/p>\n<p>While I have been right to stick by my long dollar bias, I have been caught by surprise by <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/21\/t2108-update-151120\/\" target=\"_blank\">the relative resilience in the Australian dollar (FXA)<\/a> and the outright strength in the Turkish lira (USD\/TRY) both against the U.S. dollar. I am sticking by my positions against these currencies. <\/p>\n<p>I explained my position on the Australian dollar in <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/21\/t2108-update-151120\/\" target=\"_blank\">an earlier piece<\/a>. For the Turkish lira, I am currently assuming that the currency is experiencing a significant election-related relief rally which began before the last election. I am also assuming sellers are &#8220;exhausted&#8221; (from a technical standpoint). I am waiting for a rendezvous with presumed support at the 200-day moving average (DMA) for USD\/TRY as a test of my assumption. Note in the chart below how the Turkish lira surged in strength in the immediate election aftermath but has still failed to follow-through. This makes an imminent 200DMA test even more important. (USD\/TRY weakness represents strength in the Turkish lira).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31864\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31864\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151123_USDTRY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151123_USDTRY.png\" alt=\"Political related turmoil has delivered major turning points for the Turkish lira. \" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31864\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151123_USDTRY.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151123_USDTRY-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31864\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Political related turmoil has delivered major turning points for the Turkish lira.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\nSource: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long U.S. dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. Dollar index hit 100 on an intraday basis for the first time since March 16th, the day after the index closed at a 12-year high. The index faded back to a close of 99.73 at the end of the U.S. trading day. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The U.S. dollar&#8217;s steady, albeit slow, strengthening is happening &#8230; <a title=\"The U.S. Dollar Index Flirts With A Fresh Multi-Year Breakout\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/24\/us-dollar-flirts-with-multi-year-breakout\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,20,62,21],"tags":[299,1547,1597,1308,1591,1309],"class_list":["post-31860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakout","category-forex","category-technical-analysis","category-u-s-dollar","tag-dxy0","tag-fed-funds-futures","tag-technical-analysis","tag-turkish-lira","tag-u-s-dollar","tag-usdtry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The U.S. Dollar Index Flirts With A Fresh Multi-Year Breakout - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/24\/us-dollar-flirts-with-multi-year-breakout\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The U.S. Dollar Index Flirts With A Fresh Multi-Year Breakout - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The U.S. Dollar index hit 100 on an intraday basis for the first time since March 16th, the day after the index closed at a 12-year high. The index faded back to a close of 99.73 at the end of the U.S. trading day. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The U.S. dollar&#8217;s steady, albeit slow, strengthening is happening ... 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