{"id":31718,"date":"2015-11-15T12:13:17","date_gmt":"2015-11-15T20:13:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=31718"},"modified":"2015-11-15T12:13:17","modified_gmt":"2015-11-15T20:13:17","slug":"t2108-update-151113","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/15\/t2108-update-151113\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (November 13, 2015) – The S&P 500 Faces A Key Market Test"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 38.1%
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 25.5%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 20.1
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: bearish
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #30 over 20%, Day #29 over 30%, Day #1 under 40% (ending 28 days over 40%) (underperiod), Day #2 below 50%, Day #4 under 60%, Day #344 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).
\nIBB<\/a> (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nI am keeping this update short given the tragic terrorist attack in Paris Friday night, November 13th. It is very possible that the nature and tenor of trading change as a result. I visited Paris for the first time last year. Although it was a quick day trip in the middle of a layover, I thoroughly enjoyed myself and still look forward to visiting again one day soon. My prayers go out to everyone impacted by this atrocity.<\/p>\n


\n
\n\"\"<\/a><\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The S&P 500 (SPY) lost 1.1% on the day, and finished the week with a 3.6% loss. It was a week the began ominously; the selling validated the alarm bells I rang to start the week<\/a>. <\/p>\n


\n
\"An<\/a>
An important test of support at the 50-day moving average (DMA) looms for the S&P 500.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The 50-day moving average (DMA) is trending upward, so a test of this support is very critical for the S&P 500. The potential test comes with T2108 plunging from 61.7% to start the week to 38.1% to close the week. <\/p>\n


\n
\"T2108<\/a>
T2108 plunges out of the trading range that defined its behavior for a month just below overbought status.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Once T2108 drops into the 30s, I start to think about oversold trading conditions. In recent years, the low 30s have served as “close enough” to trigger a (short-term) bottom in the trading action. In this case, I am more interested in fading volatility than playing the S&P 500. I strongly suspect that any bounce in the S&P 500 will be short-lived and capped by its 200DMA. The volatility index, the VIX, is reaching “elevated” status at 20.1. I would target a return to the 15.35 pivot on a fade and make the trade a quick flip on shares of ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures (SVXY).<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The volatility index is making a move<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

For trading, I unloaded a lot of put options Thursday and Friday. These were positions primarily on stocks I featured in various charts during the week. I was glad to have them convert so quickly. I dabbled i some call options on select positions.<\/p>\n

One small sign that things could soon turn for the buyers and bulls is Caterpillar (CAT). It made a very bearish breakdown with a gap down below its 50DMA on Thursday, but on Friday the stock showed very surprising relative strength. CAT managed to rally while most of the market was selling off.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Caterpillar<\/a>
Caterpillar (CAT) manages a surprising bounce the day after a very bearish breakdown<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nRelated links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: short CAT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,43,511,62],"tags":[64,63,65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-31718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-industrial-sector","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-cat","tag-caterpillar-inc","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (November 13, 2015) - The S&P 500 Faces A Key Market Test - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/15\/t2108-update-151113\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (November 13, 2015) - The S&P 500 Faces A Key Market Test - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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