{"id":31645,"date":"2015-11-09T23:44:29","date_gmt":"2015-11-10T07:44:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=31645"},"modified":"2015-11-10T06:34:26","modified_gmt":"2015-11-10T14:34:26","slug":"t2108-update-151109","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/09\/t2108-update-151109\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (November 9, 2015) &#8211; Market Momentum Waning"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><code><\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/T2108.htm\">T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/#!\/search\/%23T2108\">follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/#!\/search\/%23120trade\" target=\"_blank\">the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n<p><strong>T2108 Status<\/strong>: 55.3%<br \/>\n<strong>T2107 Status<\/strong>: 30.9%<br \/>\n<strong>VIX Status<\/strong>: 16.5<br \/>\n<strong>General (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: slightly bearish<br \/>\n<strong>Active T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #27 over 20%, Day #26 over 30%, Day #26 over 40%, Day #24 over 50% (overperiod), Day #1 under 60% (ending 8 days over 60%) (underperiod), Day #341 under 70%<\/p>\n<p><strong>Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of the S&amp;P 500\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=$SPX&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-05-09&amp;en=2015-11-09&amp;id=p14085208538\" target=\"_blank\">S&amp;P 500<\/a> or <a title=\"6-month chart of SPY\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=SPY&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-05-09&amp;en=2015-11-09&amp;id=p14085208538\" target=\"_blank\">SPY<\/a><br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of SDS\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=SDS&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-05-09&amp;en=2015-11-09&amp;id=p15880085697\" target=\"_blank\">SDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&amp;P500)<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of the U.S. dollar\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=$USD&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-05-09&amp;en=2015-11-09&amp;id=p25615696567\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of EEM\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=EEM&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-05-09&amp;en=2015-11-09&amp;id=p15880085697\" target=\"_blank\">EEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of the VIX\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=$VIX&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-05-09&amp;en=2015-11-09&amp;id=p25615696567\" target=\"_blank\">VIX<\/a> (volatility index)<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of VXX\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=VXX&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-05-09&amp;en=2015-11-09&amp;id=p15880085697\" target=\"_blank\">VXX<\/a> (iPath S&amp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of EWG\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=EWG&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-05-09&amp;en=2015-11-09&amp;id=p15880085697\" target=\"_blank\">EWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of CAT\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=CAT&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-05-09&amp;en=2015-11-09&amp;id=p15880085697\" target=\"_blank\">CAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<br \/>\n<a title=\"6-month chart of IBB\" href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=IBB&amp;p=D&amp;st=2015-05-09&amp;en=2015-11-09&amp;id=p15880085697\" target=\"_blank\">IBB<\/a> (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Commentary<\/strong><br \/>\nI made the case in <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/09\/t2108-update-151106\/\" target=\"_blank\">the last T2108 Update<\/a> for a bearish turn in the stock market. Today, Monday, November 9, 2015, started a confirmation process for that change in outlook. T2108 closed out the day at 55.3% and is retesting the low point of what has become a month-long range. A breakdown serves as a bearish confirmation. If T2108 bounces again from here, I will back down a bit on my bearish trading call.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31648\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31648\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_T2108.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_T2108.png\" alt=\"T2108 looks ready to break down.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31648\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_T2108.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_T2108-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31648\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">T2108 looks ready to break down.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The S&#038;P 500 (SPY) is also facing its own important retest of support. The index fell almost 1%, got back in sync with T2108, dropped out of the primary uptrend channel, and came within a &#8220;hair&#8221; of retesting 200DMA support.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31649\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31649\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_SP500.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_SP500.png\" alt=\"Momentum for the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) is now waning as the index falls out of its primary uptrend channel for n important retest of support.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31649\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_SP500.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_SP500-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31649\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Momentum for the S&#038;P 500 (SPY) is now waning as the index falls out of its primary uptrend channel for n important retest of support.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The volatility index, the VIX, added its own stamp of approval for more bearish tidings. It closed above the 15.35 pivot. This pivot has held for almost a month. The VIX closed cleanly above the pivot for the first time since October 21st.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31651\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31651\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_VIX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_VIX.png\" alt=\"The volatility index pops above the pivot. Is it about to break out?\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31651\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_VIX.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_VIX-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31651\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The volatility index pops above the pivot. Is it about to break out?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>So momentum is waning from the stock market, and the waiting game continues for final confirmation &#8211; a 200DMA breakdown for the S&#038;P 500.<\/p>\n<p>In the last T2108 Update, I flipped bearish on the market but provided a lot of bullish charts. Time for some more bearish ones.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31652\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31652\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_TSLA.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_TSLA.png\" alt=\"Tesla Motors (TSLA) has not been able to follow-through on its post-earnings pop. Today&#039;s 3% drop confirms the converged 50 and 200DMA as resistance.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31652\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_TSLA.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_TSLA-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31652\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tesla Motors (TSLA) has not been able to follow-through on its post-earnings pop. Today&#8217;s 3% drop confirms the converged 50 and 200DMA as resistance.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31653\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31653\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_WYNN.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_WYNN.png\" alt=\"Wynn Resorts (WYNN) gaps down on high volume and ends its attempt to bounce back from a poor response to earnings. The 50DMA barely holds as support.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31653\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_WYNN.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_WYNN-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31653\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Wynn Resorts (WYNN) gaps down on high volume and ends its attempt to bounce back from a poor response to earnings. The 50DMA barely holds as support.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31660\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31660\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_SKX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_SKX.png\" alt=\"Skechers (SKX) resumes its post-earnings selling in what could be a long ride down...\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31660\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_SKX.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_SKX-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31660\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Skechers (SKX) resumes its post-earnings selling in what could be a long ride down&#8230;<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31654\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31654\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_EEM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_EEM.png\" alt=\"The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) has resolved the churn from October downwards. The 50DMA is barely holding as support.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31654\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_EEM.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_EEM-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31654\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) has resolved the churn from October downwards. The 50DMA is barely holding as support.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_31655\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31655\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_GRPN.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_GRPN.png\" alt=\"How much longer will Groupon (GRPN) survive? A massive, high-volume post-earnings gap down confirms 50DMA resistance and a deepening downtrend.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31655\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_GRPN.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_GRPN-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31655\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">How much longer will Groupon (GRPN) survive? A massive, high-volume post-earnings gap down confirms 50DMA resistance and a deepening downtrend.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>And just because I have not posted a chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) in  very long time, here is a reminder that trading conditions in China actually continue to improve ever so steadily. The last four days in particular have provided a very strong bounce off 50DMA support.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31656\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31656\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_SSEC.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_SSEC.png\" alt=\"The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) continues its recovery from the August Angst. A test of 200DMA resistance now looms.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31656\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_SSEC.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/151109_SSEC-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31656\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) continues its recovery from the August Angst. A test of 200DMA resistance now looms.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<strong>Daily T2108 vs the S&amp;P 500<\/strong><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"T2108 vs. the S&amp;P 500 (DAILY)\" src=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&amp;P 500 (for comparative purposes)<br \/>\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<strong>Weekly T2108<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Weekly T2108\" src=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.png\" alt=\"Weekly T2108\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" \/><br \/>\n*<strong>All charts created using <\/strong><\/a><strong><a title=\"Freestockcharts.com\" href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/tag\/t2108\/\" target=\"_blank\">click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\n<strong>Related links:<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/T2108.htm\">The T2108 Resource Page<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily.jpg\">Expanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&amp;P 500<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly.jpg\">Expanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long TSLA put options, long EEM put aand call options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are &#8230; <a title=\"T2108 Update (November 9, 2015) &#8211; Market Momentum Waning\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/09\/t2108-update-151109\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[599,338,62,518,1633],"tags":[1195,821,65,1651,1562,226,1597,887,303,109],"class_list":["post-31645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-internet","category-retail","category-technical-analysis","category-transportation","category-travel","tag-eem","tag-grpn","tag-sp-500","tag-skx","tag-ssec","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-tsla","tag-vix","tag-wynn"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>T2108 Update (November 9, 2015) - Market Momentum Waning - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/11\/09\/t2108-update-151109\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (November 9, 2015) - Market Momentum Waning - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are ... 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