{"id":31428,"date":"2015-10-28T23:07:19","date_gmt":"2015-10-29T06:07:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=31428"},"modified":"2015-10-28T23:07:19","modified_gmt":"2015-10-29T06:07:19","slug":"the-australian-dollar-should-face-increased-pressure-from-policy-divergence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/28\/the-australian-dollar-should-face-increased-pressure-from-policy-divergence\/","title":{"rendered":"The Australian Dollar Should Face Increased Pressure from Policy Divergence"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/27\/australian-dollar-slammed-by-inflation-data-more-weakness-likely\/\" target=\"_blank\">Australia&#8217;s persistently weak inflation data<\/a> has now convinced the market that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is much more likely than not to cut interest rates at its November 3, 2015 meeting on monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31429\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31429\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151028_ASXRateTrackerNov.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151028_ASXRateTrackerNov.png\" alt=\"The market&#039;s implied odds for a November rate cut have soared to 67%.\" width=\"500\" height=\"220\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31429\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151028_ASXRateTrackerNov.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151028_ASXRateTrackerNov-300x132.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31429\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The market&#8217;s implied odds for a November rate cut have soared to 67%.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.asx.com.au\/prices\/targetratetracker.htm\" target=\"_blank\">The ASX RBA Rate Indicator<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Combine this flip in market sentiment with the mirror image of <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/28\/financial-markets-welcome-the-feds-focus-on-its-first-rate-hike-with-important-breakouts\/\" target=\"_blank\">the market pulling in the timing of a rate HIKE in the U.S.<\/a>, and the Australian dollar (FXA) finds itself firmly locked in the grip of policy divergence. This is a very bearish development for the currency and makes shorting the Australian dollar going into next week&#8217;s meeting even more attractive. <\/p>\n<p>However, the market&#8217;s strong conviction also raises the stakes for the meeting. If the RBA fails to deliver a rate cut or even stays silent on its directional (downward) bias, the Australian dollar could experience a sharp, albeit temporary, relief rally. I am looking to stay short through the meeting.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31430\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31430\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151028_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151028_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The pressure continues to build on the Australian dollar\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31430\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151028_AUDUSD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151028_AUDUSD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31430\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The pressure continues to build on the Australian dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net short the Australian dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Australia&#8217;s persistently weak inflation data has now convinced the market that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is much more likely than not to cut interest rates at its November 3, 2015 meeting on monetary policy. Source: The ASX RBA Rate Indicator Combine this flip in market sentiment with the mirror image of the market &#8230; <a title=\"The Australian Dollar Should Face Increased Pressure from Policy Divergence\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/28\/the-australian-dollar-should-face-increased-pressure-from-policy-divergence\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,20],"tags":[308,310,309,115,203],"class_list":["post-31428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-forex","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-fxa","tag-monetary-policy","tag-reserve-bank-of-australia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Australian Dollar Should Face Increased Pressure from Policy Divergence - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/28\/the-australian-dollar-should-face-increased-pressure-from-policy-divergence\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Australian Dollar Should Face Increased Pressure from Policy Divergence - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australia&#8217;s persistently weak inflation data has now convinced the market that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is much more likely than not to cut interest rates at its November 3, 2015 meeting on monetary policy. 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