{"id":31409,"date":"2015-10-28T13:58:39","date_gmt":"2015-10-28T20:58:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=31409"},"modified":"2015-10-28T13:58:39","modified_gmt":"2015-10-28T20:58:39","slug":"lessons-learned-from-the-apple-pre-earnings-play-for-october-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/28\/lessons-learned-from-the-apple-pre-earnings-play-for-october-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"Lessons Learned from the Apple Pre-Earnings Play for October, 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/27\/the-apple-pre-earnings-play-for-october-2015-points-bearish\/\" target=\"_blank\">The pre-earnings trade on Apple<\/a> (AAPL) unfolded exactly opposite of expectations. The model pointed bearishly, but AAPL ended the day with a very impressive 4.2% pop that placed it right back where it closed on Friday&#8217;s impressive rally.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31410\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31410\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151028_AAPL.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151028_AAPL.png\" alt=\"Strength continues to build in Apple (AAPL). A 200DMA retest and likely breakout is now back in play.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31410\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151028_AAPL.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151028_AAPL-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31410\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Strength continues to build in Apple (AAPL). A 200DMA retest and likely breakout is now back in play.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>This particular pre-earnings trade turned out to have too many moving parts and caveats. I placed the odds of success at 60%, but I had not considered the potential impact of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s latest announcement on monetary policy. Given I expect the Fed to continue help supporting the market, a bearish pre-earnings trade on AAPL had less chance of success than the model implied! Lessons learned!<\/p>\n<p>Fortunately, I noticed the stock&#8217;s bullish underpinnings as well as I had word from a friend who listened to the call that Apple&#8217;s results were stellar, China looks good, and guidance was strong. So after shaking off the disappointment from a trade gone bad, I looked for the next opportunity. I managed to double down on my call option (a weekly with $119 strike) early in the day. I was frankly shocked it tumbled from $200+ to $40 even with the expected post-earnings implosion of volatility. Given the calls looked far too cheap, I had no problem doubling down. As luck would have it, AAPL&#8217;s strong close allowed me to close out the long side at breakeven as my new cals increased in value by 160%. <\/p>\n<p>I decided to just hold onto the put spread side of the trade. I will use it as a small hedge for what I see as many bullishly biased trades to come in the next few weeks. Unlike the hedge I held ahead of and through the flash crash, I do NOT expect this put spread to deliver profits by November&#8217;s expiration.<\/p>\n<p>The other lesson from this failed pre-earnings trade is that April has become even more attractive as the lone month to try trading Apple pre-earnings. Otherwise, post-earnings trades are making more and more sense. I hope to develop a post-earnings model before January&#8217;s earnings. Stay tuned&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long AAPL put spread<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The pre-earnings trade on Apple (AAPL) unfolded exactly opposite of expectations. The model pointed bearishly, but AAPL ended the day with a very impressive 4.2% pop that placed it right back where it closed on Friday&#8217;s impressive rally. Source: FreeStockCharts.com This particular pre-earnings trade turned out to have too many moving parts and caveats. I &#8230; <a title=\"Lessons Learned from the Apple Pre-Earnings Play for October, 2015\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/28\/lessons-learned-from-the-apple-pre-earnings-play-for-october-2015\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,219],"tags":[250,534],"class_list":["post-31409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-high-tech","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Lessons Learned from the Apple Pre-Earnings Play for October, 2015 - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/28\/lessons-learned-from-the-apple-pre-earnings-play-for-october-2015\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lessons Learned from the Apple Pre-Earnings Play for October, 2015 - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The pre-earnings trade on Apple (AAPL) unfolded exactly opposite of expectations. The model pointed bearishly, but AAPL ended the day with a very impressive 4.2% pop that placed it right back where it closed on Friday&#8217;s impressive rally. Source: FreeStockCharts.com This particular pre-earnings trade turned out to have too many moving parts and caveats. I ... 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