{"id":31262,"date":"2015-10-21T23:03:58","date_gmt":"2015-10-22T06:03:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=31262"},"modified":"2015-10-21T23:03:58","modified_gmt":"2015-10-22T06:03:58","slug":"the-mysterious-plunge-in-eros-international","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/21\/the-mysterious-plunge-in-eros-international\/","title":{"rendered":"The Mysterious Plunge in Eros International"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On October 13, 2015, Eros International, Plc (EROS), a major distributor and producer of Indian entertainment, held <a href=\"http:\/\/www.businesswire.com\/news\/home\/20151009005826\/en\/Eros-International-Announces-Agenda-Investor-Day-October\" target=\"_blank\">its inaugural Investor Day<\/a>. The stock has been plunging ever since.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31263\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31263\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151021_EROS.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151021_EROS.png\" alt=\"EROS inauspiciously failed at 50DMA resistance as its investor&#039;s day got started. In the 6 trading days since then, the stock is down a whopping 42%.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31263\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151021_EROS.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151021_EROS-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31263\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">EROS inauspiciously failed at 50DMA resistance as its investor&#8217;s day got started. In the 6 trading days since then, the stock is down a whopping 42%.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I have been tracking this stock ever more closely since the first big drop. I enjoy Bollywood flicks, Bhangra, and Indian pop music, so I am surprised I never heard of this company before. Sensing a buying opportunity, I have scrambled to play catch-up. I have searched and searched for news explaining the plunge. There are no explanatory <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sec.gov\/cgi-bin\/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&#038;CIK=0001532981&#038;owner=exclude&#038;count=40&#038;hidefilings=0\" target=\"_blank\">SEC filings<\/a>. In fact, the company just released news its reached 30 million registered users as of September 30th..something already announced during the Investor Day. I suspect this was a thinly veiled attempt at providing some kind of reassurance.<\/p>\n<p>I have bugged friends and come up with nothing. Even on social media, I have found little to unfold the mystery of this plunge. I finally went back to <a href=\"http:\/\/phx.corporate-ir.net\/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzA4OTkzfENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&#038;t=1&#038;cb=635810244942119545\" target=\"_blank\">the materials the company provided for its Investor Day<\/a>. It was full of the bullish information one would expect on the company&#8217;s financials and market opportunity &#8211; no obvious blemishes. <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31265\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31265\" style=\"width: 437px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151021_EROSCorporatePresentationCover.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151021_EROSCorporatePresentationCover.png\" alt=\"EROS is all about the flash and style of Indian entertainment\" width=\"447\" height=\"336\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31265\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151021_EROSCorporatePresentationCover.png 447w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151021_EROSCorporatePresentationCover-300x226.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 447px) 100vw, 447px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31265\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">EROS is all about the flash and style of Indian entertainment<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/phx.corporate-ir.net\/phoenix.zhtml?c=201012&#038;p=irol-IRHome\" target=\"_blank\">EROS<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I watched a short video featuring <a href=\"http:\/\/video.cnbc.com\/gallery\/?video=3000431892\" target=\"_blank\">an interview with founder and Chairman Kishore Lulla on CNBC<\/a> just ahead of the Investor Day in New York City. The discussion barely touched on any headwinds for the company. Here are my notes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The three big things in India: movies, cricket, and religion. The music industry is part of the movie industry.<\/li>\n<li>Like the Netflix (NFLX) of India that owns almost all its own content.<\/li>\n<li>30M registered users.<\/li>\n<li>Largest studio in India.<\/li>\n<li>Eros Now is like a combination of Spotify, iTunes, and Netflix.<\/li>\n<li>It is as if Disney and Time Warner combined to start Netflix.<\/li>\n<li>As an answer to the question &#8220;what happens when Netflix enters India next year?&#8221; &#8211; we are the gatekeeper.\n<\/ul>\n<p>So absent specific negative news, one has to assume &#8220;someone&#8221; knows something and is getting out of the way before the shoe drops. I have been very reluctant to dip a toe given the news vacuum. As regular readers know, I like to try short-term trades once a stock extends well beyond its outer Bollinger Band (BB). However, I was reticent even after EROS hit $15.34, a 24% loss from the previous day&#8217;s close and a full 5 points below the lower-BB. The bounce back to $17.89 is the classic reversal I like to catch in these situations. <\/p>\n<p>Making me even more hesitant is that the stock has set-up like a classic short-selling play. If I had not been enticed by the seemingly strong fundamentals of this company, I would have seen the failure at the 50-day moving average on the heels of a major event as a bright red flag and the first trigger for a short. The high-volume breakdown below the 200DMA would have been the second trigger.<\/p>\n<p>But NOW, if explanatory news remains elusive, then I have to assume from a technical standpoint that EROS could finally be good for a relief bounce at least back to 200DMA resistance as sellers finally get exhausted. Stay tuned&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On October 13, 2015, Eros International, Plc (EROS), a major distributor and producer of Indian entertainment, held its inaugural Investor Day. The stock has been plunging ever since. Source: FreeStockCharts.com I have been tracking this stock ever more closely since the first big drop. I enjoy Bollywood flicks, Bhangra, and Indian pop music, so I &#8230; <a title=\"The Mysterious Plunge in Eros International\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/21\/the-mysterious-plunge-in-eros-international\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,483,1576,1642,599,62],"tags":[1643,1644,404,405,1597],"class_list":["post-31262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakdown","category-entertainment","category-india","category-internet","category-technical-analysis","tag-eros","tag-eros-international","tag-netflix","tag-nflx","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Mysterious Plunge in Eros International - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/21\/the-mysterious-plunge-in-eros-international\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Mysterious Plunge in Eros International - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On October 13, 2015, Eros International, Plc (EROS), a major distributor and producer of Indian entertainment, held its inaugural Investor Day. 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