{"id":31188,"date":"2015-10-16T22:17:42","date_gmt":"2015-10-17T05:17:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=31188"},"modified":"2015-10-16T22:23:54","modified_gmt":"2015-10-17T05:23:54","slug":"why-rio-tintos-latest-production-report-failed-to-excite-the-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/16\/why-rio-tintos-latest-production-report-failed-to-excite-the-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Rio Tinto&#8217;s Latest Production Report Failed to Excite the Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I keep looking for reasons to believe in a bottom for commodities. Recently, the big washout of sellers in commodity giant Glencore looked like such a signal. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3570596-glencores-correlation-with-market-sentiment-and-an-end-to-the-collapse-in-commodities\" target=\"_blank\">Upon closer examination, I decided that the bottom is more likely temporary than sustainable<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The latest signal was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.riotinto.com\/documents\/151015_Third_quarter_operations_review.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">the third quarter (2015) production report<\/a> from Rio Tinto (RIO) released on October 16th. CNBC ran the teaser headline &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2015\/10\/16\/does-rios-iron-ore-boost-signal-a-turn-for-commodities.html\" target=\"_blank\">Does Rio&#8217;s iron ore boost signal a turn for commodities?<\/a>&#8221; to suggest that something significant had happened. Upon closer examination, there was not much new to see. The stock market responded accordingly. RIO dropped 2.2% on lower than average volume. (Prices overlayed on the chart are approximate spot iron ore prices at the given date).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31189\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31189\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151016_RIO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151016_RIO.png\" alt=\"Rio Tinto (RIO) has churned and gone nowhere since gapping up on a Morgan Stanley upgrade\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31189\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151016_RIO.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151016_RIO-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31189\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Rio Tinto (RIO) has churned and gone nowhere since gapping up on a Morgan Stanley upgrade<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The focus of excitement was a shipment level that outstripped production:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto posted Friday a 17 percent rise in third-quarter iron ore shipments, selling more of the raw material than they were able produce, a result that some investors are taking as a sign that conditions for the commodity market might be looking up.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>On the surface, this looks like encouraging news. However, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.riotinto.com\/documents\/20150716_Rio_Tinto_releases_strong_second_quarter_production_results.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">the second quarter production report<\/a> also indicated a gap between shipments and production. RIO currently trades around the same levels from the July 16th report. Sure, the 6.0% gap of 91.3M tonnes shipped versus 86.1M tonnes produced is larger than the second quarter&#8217;s gap of 2.1% (81.4M tonnes versus 79.7M tonnes), but overall shipments are right in-line with RIO&#8217;s projection of 340M tonnes for the year. In other words, NEW news would be a report of production scheduled to go higher than expectations because of excess demand. Even better would be a response in prices driven by the gap.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, <a href=\"http:\/\/in.reuters.com\/article\/2015\/10\/16\/asia-ironore-idINL3N12G1O520151016\" target=\"_blank\">iron ore finished the week down 4% &#8211; the largest weekly loss since July<\/a>. Moreover,  Shanghai rebar futures remain extremely weak. Reuters reported that these futures are at their lowest level since the launch of the market in 2009. Chinese over-production is likely contributing to the weakness. Low prices have barely put a dent in production: output has only fallen 2% from January to August. <\/p>\n<p>This story of persistent over-supply has dogged iron ore (and steel) for well over a year now. Producers are still more concerned about cash flow than prices. Without an abatement of oversupply, there is still no reason to believe a sustained bottom has occurred. This reality was the message of a market that failed to get excited about RIO&#8217;s latest production report.<\/p>\n<p>For trading purposes, I still prefer a hedged approach with RIO as the bullish side of the trade. Iron ore competitor BHP Biliton remains relatively weak compared to RIO.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_31192\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-31192\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151016_RIOvsBHP.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151016_RIOvsBHP.png\" alt=\"The trend is bad for Rio Tinto (RIO). The trend for BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) is even worse.\" width=\"520\" height=\"318\" class=\"size-full wp-image-31192\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151016_RIOvsBHP.png 520w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/151016_RIOvsBHP-300x183.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-31192\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The trend is bad for Rio Tinto (RIO). The trend for BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) is even worse.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=RIO%3ABHP&#038;p=D&#038;yr=5&#038;mn=0&#038;dy=0&#038;id=p16184528297\" target=\"_blank\">Stockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long RIO call options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I keep looking for reasons to believe in a bottom for commodities. Recently, the big washout of sellers in commodity giant Glencore looked like such a signal. Upon closer examination, I decided that the bottom is more likely temporary than sustainable. The latest signal was the third quarter (2015) production report from Rio Tinto (RIO) &#8230; <a title=\"Why Rio Tinto&#8217;s Latest Production Report Failed to Excite the Market\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/16\/why-rio-tintos-latest-production-report-failed-to-excite-the-market\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199],"tags":[631,1640,692,847,1594],"class_list":["post-31188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","tag-bhp","tag-bhp-billiton-limited","tag-rio","tag-rio-tinto-plc","tag-steel"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why Rio Tinto&#039;s Latest Production Report Failed to Excite the Market - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/16\/why-rio-tintos-latest-production-report-failed-to-excite-the-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Rio Tinto&#039;s Latest Production Report Failed to Excite the Market - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I keep looking for reasons to believe in a bottom for commodities. Recently, the big washout of sellers in commodity giant Glencore looked like such a signal. Upon closer examination, I decided that the bottom is more likely temporary than sustainable. The latest signal was the third quarter (2015) production report from Rio Tinto (RIO) ... 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