{"id":31087,"date":"2015-10-11T17:51:56","date_gmt":"2015-10-12T00:51:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=31087"},"modified":"2015-10-11T17:51:56","modified_gmt":"2015-10-12T00:51:56","slug":"t2108-update-151009","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/11\/t2108-update-151009\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (October 9, 2015) – Commodity Currencies Leading the Way to Overbought Trading Conditions"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 65.4% (near 6-month high)
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 29.1%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 17.1
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Neutral (target of 1996 on the S&P 500 has already occurred ahead of overbought conditions. See “From the Edge of A Breakout to the Ledge of A Breakdown<\/a>” for more details).
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #6 over 20%, Day #5 over 30%, Day #5 over 40%, Day #3 over 50%, Day #2 over 60%, Day #320 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).
\nIBB<\/a> (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nIt was a close call. T2108 gained for the 9th straight trading day. My favorite technical indicator got as high as 67.6%, still short of overbought conditions. The S&P 500 (SPY) also closed with a very marginal gain, essentially flat. The index remains comfortably above its 50DMA. With the upper-Bollinger Bands (BBs) opening upward, a run-up to 200DMA resistance sometime in the coming weeks looks all the more likely. Still, I decided to lock in profits on my last play on the S&P 500 (SPY): shares in ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO).<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 (SPY) is maintaining a V-like bounce from oversold conditions<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I am skipping to what I consider the biggest developing story from a technical and fundamental standpoint: a looming breakdown for the U.S. dollar index (UUP). At the same time, commodity currencies are soaring. These moves are the surest signs that risk-aversion is fading into the rear-view mirror and market sentiment is steadily improving.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Is<\/a>
Is the U.S. dollar starting to print a bearish wedge pattern?<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n
\"The<\/a>
The Australian dollar (FXA) followed through on its breakout against the Japanese yen (FXY)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\"The<\/a>
The Canadian dollar has relentlessly gained on the U.S. dollar – a strength unseen since April<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

While I am very skeptical of the durability and sustainability of the run-up in commodity-related currencies, I am more and more interested in the potential for the U.S. dollar to break down. Ever since its 12-year peak in March, the index has slowly but surely taken on a downtrend. It is definitely not the unstoppable dollar of before. In a previous post, I argued that the U.S. dollar will remain trapped in a trading range. NOW, I have to wonder whether a real downtrend is looming. <\/p>\n


\n
\"In<\/a>
In the face of growing dollar weakness, could the classic (former?) anti-dollar trade in gold (GLD) finally become attractive? The 50DMA is turning upward and GLD has printed two higher lows…<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Basically, the pushout of the odds for a rate hike is producing this opportunity for traders to behave as if they have a green light to do the contrarian commodity-related trade. I have stopped adding to my fades on this move, but I am poised to get back into it if (when?) weakness shows up again.<\/p>\n

There are two stock charts I missed in the last T2108 Update<\/a> that are of great interest: Baidu (BIDU) and Tesla (TSLA).<\/p>\n

BIDU has been in decline ever since it gapped down on a 50DMA failure after April earnings. The second attempt at a recovery was marred by an even more disastrous post-earnings performance in July. After a meager recovery failed, I officially dropped BIDU from my list of stocks to trade aggressively to the long side. If I were a bear at the time, BIDU would have been a top stock to short. Because I dropped BIDU from my list, I was not prepared to rush in and buy some shares during the flash crash in August. Last week’s 50DMA failure solidified the bearish bias on this former titan.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Baidu<\/a>
Baidu (BIDU) has completely lost its mojo over the past 6 months<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Tesla (TSLA) often acts like Teflon: bad news just bounces off the stock and recoveries from tumbles have been inevitable. Something has subtly changed since TSLA gapped below 50DMA support after August earnings – the stock is acting with more and more of a bearish bias. It is hard to see because the stock managed to break out above 50DMA support in September. However, note carefully that TSLA just barely closed the post-earnings gap and then stalled. Now, the stock has broken down below the even more critical 200DMA support again. And again, trading volume is higher than normal. This is a potentially important change in sentiment on the stock. I am not likely to make any trades on the stock anytime soon, but I am watching with greater interest.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Tesla<\/a>
Tesla Motors (TSLA) is showing a weakening trend confirmed by the latest 200DMA breakdown<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nRelated links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SVXY shares, short AUD\/JPY, net long U.S. dollar, long GLD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,599,62,518],"tags":[772,310,759,760,296,200,65,226,1597,888,887,1591,469],"class_list":["post-31087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-internet","category-technical-analysis","category-transportation","tag-audjpy","tag-australian-dollar","tag-baidu","tag-bidu","tag-canadian-dollar","tag-gld","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-tesla-motors-inc","tag-tsla","tag-u-s-dollar","tag-usdcad"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (October 9, 2015) - Commodity Currencies Leading the Way to Overbought Trading Conditions - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/10\/11\/t2108-update-151009\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (October 9, 2015) - Commodity Currencies Leading the Way to Overbought Trading Conditions - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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