{"id":30603,"date":"2015-09-09T22:40:27","date_gmt":"2015-09-10T05:40:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=30603"},"modified":"2015-09-09T22:40:27","modified_gmt":"2015-09-10T05:40:27","slug":"t2108-update-150909","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/09\/09\/t2108-update-150909\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (September 9, 2015) – Stock Market Reset: Oversold Round Two"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 17.8% (Day #1 of a 2nd oversold period. Last one ended the day before.
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 21.4%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 26.2
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Bullish
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #1 under 20% (underperiod is oversold, last oversold period ended just a day before), Day #14 under 30%, Day #37 under 40%, Day #77 under 50%, Day #94 under 60%, Day #292 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nHere we go again.<\/p>\n

Just one day after T2108 exited the first oversold period in almost a year, it drops right back into a second one with a close of 17.8. It looks like the battle royale between post-Labor Day bargain shoppers and anxious is officially underway.<\/p>\n


\n
\"T2108<\/a>
T2108 started off promising with a small gap up and follow-through. Sellers pushed T2108 into a complete fade by the close.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The fade on T2108 was equally matched by the S&P 500 (SPY). The index was stopped cold right at its declining 20-day moving average (DMA) which happens to coincide with the high from the oversold period.<\/p>\n


\n
\"A<\/a>
A wide chopping pattern is developing on the S&P 500<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Essentially, the stock market has developed a nervous chop as it awaits the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision in a week: Fedaggedon<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The volatility index made a big comeback from its low of the day but ended the day short of the dangerzone. A subtle downtrend remains in place from the last intraday high.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The volatility index stops short of the dangerzone AND its subtle downtrend from last month’s major (intraday high)<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

With T2108 back in oversold territory, I hit a partial reset on the T2108 trading strategy. Since I am still holding positions from the last oversold period, I did not make new T2108 trades to mark the beginning of the oversold period. The rest of the rules remain the same with a caveat for the aggressive approach. As I follow the aggressive strategy, I will look for a new spike in the VIX for loading up on call options on ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO). Given the height of the last spike, I may trigger as early as a 20-25% approach which amounts to 43 on the high end. In the meantime, I will likely play the up and down chop that reverses the previous day’s move. I am still keenly focused on fading volatility going into the Fed meeting.<\/p>\n

Less aggressive traders can now wait for the VIX to make a new closing low in this cycle before making a bullish trade or investment. As always, conservative traders and investors can wait until the oversold period ends before making bullish trades. The same caution on overhead resistance levels<\/a> applies. <\/p>\n

Here are the trades on the day: locked in profits on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) put options as soon as it appeared UVXY would not follow-through with its gap down; later in the day, a limit order to get back into the same UVXY put options triggered at less than half my original purchase price; bought a new tranche of shares in Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X ETF (RUSS) as a play on the uptrend and a partial hedge on longs; stubbornly bought back into call options on Workday (WDAY) as I still believe the poor timing of the earnings report greased the skids for an over-reaction; watched another Google (GOOG) call option go from profit to loss as I TRIED to stick with the winning trade. Clearly, I need to keep locking in profits on GOOG call options as soon as practical! GOOG closed the day just barely levitating above its 50DMA pivot point.<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nRelated links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SVXY shares, long SSO shares and call options, long UVXY put options, long GOOG call options, long WDAY call options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[921,491,62],"tags":[65,362,446,226,1597,303],"class_list":["post-30603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-downtrend","category-oversold","category-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-sso","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (September 9, 2015) - Stock Market Reset: Oversold Round Two - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/09\/09\/t2108-update-150909\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (September 9, 2015) - Stock Market Reset: Oversold Round Two - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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