{"id":303,"date":"2009-10-16T16:04:38","date_gmt":"2009-10-16T20:04:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=303"},"modified":"2009-10-16T16:04:38","modified_gmt":"2009-10-16T20:04:38","slug":"intel-continues-post-earnings-slide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/10\/16\/intel-continues-post-earnings-slide\/","title":{"rendered":"Intel Continues Its Post-Earnings Slide"},"content":{"rendered":"

The excitement over Intel’s Q3 earnings report has already worn off. After peaking as high as $21.60 or so in the immediate aftermath of the release (after hours trading), Intel (INTC) dropped as low as $20 today. While this is just a small amount below the pre-earnings close of $20.49, this drop has still created the dreaded “gap and crap” that typically signals a near-term top. The initial excitement (the gap) has quickly given way to eager profit-taking (the crap).<\/p>\n

Note that rapidly fading excitement is nothing new to INTC. The chart above shows how INTC peaked in late August after its revenue guidance that beat expectations at that time. INTC’s stock did not recover until the day of the Q3 earnings report. Two faded gaps in a row at 52-week highs are bright red flags. (Even during the last bull market, INTC peaked one year into that cycle and revenues and margins peaked a year later<\/a>!)<\/p>\n

The graph below was captured intra-day right after the low at $20.<\/p>\n


\n\"Intel's
\n*Chart created using TeleChart:<\/strong> <\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Today’s fresh selling was apparently driven by growing fears that PC makers have over-built in anticipation of the upgrade cycle for the Windows 7 release<\/a>. In my review of INTC’s latest earnings, I claimed that we should not expect an encore to that stellar report in the near future<\/a>. I cited high risks to holiday sales as one of my concerns in addition to a likely peak in margins and expectations for “only” a seasonal increase in revenue for Q4. (Note well: contrast INTC’s revenue expectations to AMD’s expectation that it will generate a less-than-seasonal quarter-to-quarter increase<\/a>).<\/p>\n

I will likely only be a buyer again once some fresh catalyst appears: a steep discount to current prices, signs that the economic recovery will be even more robust than expected, etc…<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: no positions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The excitement over Intel’s Q3 earnings report has already worn off. After peaking as high as $21.60 or so in the immediate aftermath of the release (after hours trading), Intel (INTC) dropped as low as $20 today. While this is just a small amount below the pre-earnings close of $20.49, this drop has still created … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[219,62],"tags":[1602,222,221],"class_list":["post-303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-high-tech","category-technical-analysis","tag-earnings","tag-intc","tag-intel"],"yoast_head":"\nIntel Continues Its Post-Earnings Slide - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/10\/16\/intel-continues-post-earnings-slide\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Intel Continues Its Post-Earnings Slide - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The excitement over Intel’s Q3 earnings report has already worn off. 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