{"id":29876,"date":"2015-08-12T13:55:55","date_gmt":"2015-08-12T20:55:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=29876"},"modified":"2015-08-12T13:55:55","modified_gmt":"2015-08-12T20:55:55","slug":"the-australian-dollar-weathers-another-test","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/12\/the-australian-dollar-weathers-another-test\/","title":{"rendered":"The Australian Dollar Weathers Another Test"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 12, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3431476-the-australian-dollar-weathers-another-test\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I was just getting ready to think through my latest piece on the Australian dollar (FXA) as a story about the currency&#8217;s resiliency likely thanks to an on-going rebound in price of iron ore. <a href=\"http:\/\/in.reuters.com\/article\/2015\/08\/11\/markets-ironore-idINL3N10M1PB20150811\" target=\"_blank\">Iron ore reached a 1-month high on Tuesday, August 11, 2015<\/a> in Asian trading. This milestone came on the heels of a rally that reached a gain as high as 3.8%. The most salient market narrative relied upon hopes for a pick-up in steel production in the coming months. Steel exports hit a record high of 10.29M tonnes in January and July came close to that record with exports of 9.73M tonnes.<\/p>\n<p>The Australian dollar was doing particularly well given another round of weak economic data points from China to start the week.<\/p>\n<p>However, not long after I reviewed the news on iron ore, much bigger news hit that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2015\/08\/10\/rply-depreciate-to-yuan.html\" target=\"_blank\">China had devalued the yuan<\/a> by changing the pricing scheme. The Australian dollar sold off immediately. However, most of the selling momentum had fizzled by the time of trading in the U.S. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29880\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29880\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_AUDUSD-15min.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_AUDUSD-15min.png\" alt=\"The yuan&#039;s impact on the Australian dollar could be quickly fading.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29880\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_AUDUSD-15min.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_AUDUSD-15min-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29880\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The yuan&#8217;s impact on the Australian dollar could be quickly fading.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29877\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29877\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar ekes out a new 6-year low before managing a small bounce\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29877\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_AUDUSD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_AUDUSD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29877\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar ekes out a new 6-year low before managing a small bounce<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>This chart of the U.S. dollar index suggests that the weakness in AUD\/USD is from the Australian side of the ledger and not the side of the U.S. dollar&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29878\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29878\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_DXY0.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_DXY0.png\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar index does not seem able to benefit from the devaluation of the yuan\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29878\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_DXY0.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_DXY0-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29878\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The U.S. dollar index does not seem able to benefit from the devaluation of the yuan<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The trigger selling is understandable: if this latest step in China&#8217;s efforts to revive its economy reveals that conditions are even worse than feared, then Australian has a very tough time coming. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29881\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29881\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_ASXRateTrackerSep.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_ASXRateTrackerSep.png\" alt=\"The market still anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia will choose to leave rates steady in September\" width=\"500\" height=\"220\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29881\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_ASXRateTrackerSep.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_ASXRateTrackerSep-300x132.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29881\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The market still anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia will choose to leave rates steady in September<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.asx.com.au\/prices\/targetratetracker.htm\" target=\"_blank\">ASX RBA Target Rate Tracker<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I do not expect this apparent resiliency in the Australian dollar near 6-year lows to translate into a blistering rally. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29884\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29884\" style=\"width: 473px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_30DayFedFundsFutures.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_30DayFedFundsFutures.png\" alt=\"The odds for the timing of the first Fed rate hike fall across the board\" width=\"483\" height=\"291\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29884\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_30DayFedFundsFutures.png 483w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150811_30DayFedFundsFutures-300x181.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 483px) 100vw, 483px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29884\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The odds for the timing of the first Fed rate hike fall across the board<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/trading\/interest-rates\/fed-funds-flash.html\" target=\"_blank\">CME Group Fed Watch<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n(Note that the CME Group has apparently changed methodology and\/or presentation of the data on the 30-Day Fed Funds Futures. Last week, odds for September were excluded. Before that, odds for September sat at zero for several weeks. I have an outstanding inquiry seeking more information and details.)<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long and short the Australian dollar versus various currencies<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 12, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3431476-the-australian-dollar-weathers-another-test\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 12, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) I was just getting ready to think through my latest piece on the Australian dollar (FXA) as a story about the currency&#8217;s resiliency likely thanks to an on-going rebound in price &#8230; <a title=\"The Australian Dollar Weathers Another Test\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/12\/the-australian-dollar-weathers-another-test\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,199,20,21],"tags":[308,310,676,1591],"class_list":["post-29876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-commodities","category-forex","category-u-s-dollar","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-iron-ore","tag-u-s-dollar"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Australian Dollar Weathers Another Test - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/12\/the-australian-dollar-weathers-another-test\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Australian Dollar Weathers Another Test - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 12, 2015. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) I was just getting ready to think through my latest piece on the Australian dollar (FXA) as a story about the currency&#8217;s resiliency likely thanks to an on-going rebound in price ... 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