{"id":29828,"date":"2015-08-09T13:40:28","date_gmt":"2015-08-09T20:40:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=29828"},"modified":"2015-08-09T13:40:44","modified_gmt":"2015-08-09T20:40:44","slug":"valuations-internet-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/09\/valuations-internet-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Valuations for Internet Stocks Disrupted by Second Quarter 2015 Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Almost a month before the latest earnings cycle, <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/06\/25\/implications-of-current-internet-valuations-as-facebook-takes-over-the-top-spot\/\" target=\"_blank\">I chronicled<\/a> the ascendancy of Facebook (FB) to the top valuation spot among the internet stocks I follow. Twitter (TWTR) lost the top spot thanks to a large post-earnings sell-off in April. Fast forward to the latest earnings cycle and internet-companies delivered even more disruptions. Rising above the dust, Facebook has further separated itself from the pack. The updated valuation chart below shows some major shifts:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Netflix (NFLX) has soared from #9 to #5.<\/li>\n<li>Of the four companies ranked above NFLX in valuation, only Facebook survived earnings with a valuation increase. Indeed LinkedIn (LNKD), Twitter (TWTR), and Zillow (Z) all continue to suffer from major valuation compression.<\/li>\n<li>The &#8220;mid-tier&#8221; companies have experienced a mix of changes. Upside moves have been minimal. Yelp.com (YELP) and TripAdvisor (TRIP) continue to suffer large valuation compression.<\/li>\n<li>Ebay (EBAY) tumbled thanks to its spin-off of PayPal (PYPL).<\/li>\n<li>AOL fell off the list after being acquired by Verizon. Notably, this acquisition cost a price-to-sales ratio under 2. This was far cheaper than earlier acquisitions like Open Table and Trulia which occurred when the stocks were trading at price-to-sales ratios of 12 and 14, respectively. The final price on both sent these ratios close to 30.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>As a reminder, I track price-to-sales as the valuation metric since several of these companies do not earn profits. Price-to-book is hard to interpret for companies whose major assets are people and software.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Click image for larger view&#8230;<\/em><\/strong><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29829\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29829\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150808_InternetStockValuations.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150808_InternetStockValuations-300x218.png\" alt=\"Facebook (FB) continues to separate itself from the pack of internet-related stocks as it has steadfastly held onto a P\/S ratio in the 20 neighborhood\" width=\"300\" height=\"218\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-29829\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150808_InternetStockValuations-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150808_InternetStockValuations.png 912w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29829\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Facebook (FB) continues to separate itself from the pack of internet-related stocks as it has steadfastly held onto a P\/S ratio in the 20 neighborhood<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for data: <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo!Finance<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Of all the lower tier companies, say those with price-to-sales below 2, Shutterfly (SFLY) looks the most interesting to me. The monthly chart below shows the stock has been rangebound for the last 2 1\/2 years. Like so many internet-related companies in this latest earnings round, SFLY sold off post-earnings. That sell-off marked a damaging breakdown below the 200-day moving average (DMA), and the stock has continued to sell-off ever since. SFLY is now essentially flat year-to-date and has lost 17% in three weeks. The headline results were good as SFLY beat on earnings and revenue for the prior quarter, guided in-line for earnings for the third quarter and FY2015, increased guidance for revenue in the third quarter, and provided in-line guidance for FY2015. Clearly, the market wanted even more.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29831\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29831\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150807_SFLY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150807_SFLY.png\" alt=\"Shutterfly (SFLY) looks ready to drop to the lower bound of its recent trading range.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29831\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150807_SFLY.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150807_SFLY-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29831\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Shutterfly (SFLY) looks ready to drop to the lower bound of its recent trading range.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Speaking of facing a market wanting more, LinkedIn (LNKD) is the most disappointing stock on the list for me. From my related posts to StockTwits:<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"embedly-card\">\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/stocktwits.com\/symbol\/GOOG?utm_source=social&#038;utm_campaign=embed\">$GOOG<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/stocktwits.com\/symbol\/NFLX?utm_source=social&#038;utm_campaign=embed\">$NFLX<\/a> set bad examples. Mkt went from internet euphoria to trigger sell all internet post-earnings. <a href=\"http:\/\/stocktwits.com\/symbol\/LNKD?utm_source=social&#038;utm_campaign=embed\">$LNKD<\/a> overdone.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Duru A (@DrDuru) <a href=\"http:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\/message\/40592934?utm_source=social&#038;utm_campaign=embed\">Jul. 31 at 06:53 AM<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/cdn.embedly.com\/widgets\/platform.js\" charset=\"UTF-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"embedly-card\">\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/stocktwits.com\/symbol\/LNKD?utm_source=social&#038;utm_campaign=embed\">$LNKD<\/a> beat on Q2. Raised for Q3 and FY15. Stock should at least fill gap in due time.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Duru A (@DrDuru) <a href=\"http:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\/message\/40593055?utm_source=social&#038;utm_campaign=embed\">Jul. 31 at 06:55 AM<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/cdn.embedly.com\/widgets\/platform.js\" charset=\"UTF-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Based on my assessment, I added to my current call spread position with a speculative call option. It expired worthless last Friday. I still think LNKD will rebound at some point this quarter, perhaps going into October earnings. However, I am realizing I will have to stay patient, VERY patient. Until Friday, LNKD sold off every single day after earnings. The stock now trades just below its low for 2015, a level I thought would hold as a sustained bottom for a lot longer than it did.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29832\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29832\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150807_LNKD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150807_LNKD.png\" alt=\"An extremely choppy trading range for LinkedIn (LNKD) over the last year.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29832\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150807_LNKD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150807_LNKD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29832\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">An extremely choppy trading range for LinkedIn (LNKD) over the last year.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Speculating on where these stocks go as group from here, I hazard to guess that the days of double-digits P\/S ratios are coming to an end. I am still undecided as to whether FB&#8217;s sky-high valuation can last in such a world. Given earlier acquisitions in the internet-space, P\/S ratios around 10 get interesting for M&#038;A if some bigger company convinces itself it can find revenue and profit-boosting synergies. <\/p>\n<p>Finally, on trading strategies, my aggressively bullish approaches to Amazon.com (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX) remain in place as I examine every dip for an opportunity to flip call options. NFLX is currently in the better position since it has managed to print gains since its first post-earnings close. These gains demonstrate buying interest has not completely exhausted itself. I have put Google (GOOG) back on the aggressive trading list after its stellar post-earnings performance. However, like AMZN, it is not in an ideal position given it has yet to add to its post-earnings gains. <\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long call spread on LNKD and TWTR, long Z shares and puts, long YHOO, long P puts, short FB and long calls, long GOOG calls<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Almost a month before the latest earnings cycle, I chronicled the ascendancy of Facebook (FB) to the top valuation spot among the internet stocks I follow. Twitter (TWTR) lost the top spot thanks to a large post-earnings sell-off in April. Fast forward to the latest earnings cycle and internet-companies delivered even more disruptions. Rising above &#8230; <a title=\"Valuations for Internet Stocks Disrupted by Second Quarter 2015 Earnings\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/09\/valuations-internet-stocks\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[599],"tags":[495,398,1244,549,943,231,230,578,579,404,405,954,953,1250,1258,50,919,977],"class_list":["post-29828","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-internet","tag-amazon-com","tag-amzn","tag-ebay","tag-facebook","tag-fb","tag-goog","tag-google","tag-linkedin","tag-lnkd","tag-netflix","tag-nflx","tag-sfly","tag-shutterfly-com","tag-trip","tag-twtr","tag-valuation","tag-yelp","tag-z"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Valuations for Internet Stocks Disrupted by Second Quarter 2015 Earnings - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/09\/valuations-internet-stocks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Valuations for Internet Stocks Disrupted by Second Quarter 2015 Earnings - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Almost a month before the latest earnings cycle, I chronicled the ascendancy of Facebook (FB) to the top valuation spot among the internet stocks I follow. 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Twitter (TWTR) lost the top spot thanks to a large post-earnings sell-off in April. Fast forward to the latest earnings cycle and internet-companies delivered even more disruptions. Rising above ... 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