{"id":29615,"date":"2015-08-07T22:04:56","date_gmt":"2015-08-08T05:04:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=29615"},"modified":"2015-08-07T22:04:56","modified_gmt":"2015-08-08T05:04:56","slug":"demographics-weigh-on-the-u-s-homeownership-rate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/07\/demographics-weigh-on-the-u-s-homeownership-rate\/","title":{"rendered":"Demographics Weigh On the U.S. Homeownership Rate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 3, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3389285-demographics-weigh-on-the-u-s-homeownership-rate\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The rate of homeownership in the U.S. fell a fraction of a percent in the second quarter &#8211; from 63.8% in the first quarter to 63.4%. <a href=\"http:\/\/nbr.com\/2015\/07\/28\/homeownership-rate-drops-to-63-4-lowest-since-1967\/\" target=\"_blank\">Many headlines rang with alarm<\/a>. This rate is now the lowest since 1967, so it is easy to convey alarm &#8211; even as the current rate is a fraction of a percent below the lows of the 1980s and the 1990s. The chart below shows all the data available through the St. Louis Federal Reserve from the U.S. Census Bureau. Historical data going back to 1965 can be retrieved from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/housing\/hvs\/data\/histtabs.html\" target=\"_blank\">the historical tables provided by the U.S. Census Bureau<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29684\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29684\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150731_USHomeownershipRate.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29684\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150731_USHomeownershipRate.png\" alt=\"10-year cycles? Homeownership went nowhere from 1985 to 1995, ran up a mere 5 percentage points from 1995 to 2005, and reversed all the gains from 2005 to 2015. Is it even possible to identify a norm?\" width=\"550\" height=\"365\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150731_USHomeownershipRate.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150731_USHomeownershipRate-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29684\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">10-year cycles? Homeownership went nowhere from 1985 to 1995, ran up a mere 5 percentage points from 1995 to 2005, and reversed all the gains from 2005 to 2015. Is it even possible to identify a norm?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>Source: US. Bureau of the Census, Homeownership Rate for the United States [RSAHORUSQ156S], <a href=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/series\/RSAHORUSQ156S\/\" target=\"_blank\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, July 31, 2015.<\/strong><\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29688\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29688\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150731_USRegionalHomeownershipRate.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29688\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150731_USRegionalHomeownershipRate.png\" alt=\"Homeownership rates vary widely across the U.S.\" width=\"550\" height=\"369\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150731_USRegionalHomeownershipRate.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150731_USRegionalHomeownershipRate-300x201.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29688\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Homeownership rates vary widely across the U.S.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/housing\/hvs\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Census Bureau<\/a><\/strong><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Underneath the regional variety, demographics may be the primary driver of today&#8217;s changes in the rate of homeownership (and perhaps can even help explain why\/how the previous surge in homeownership came at such a heavy economic cost).<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29679\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29679\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150731_-LivingArrangementsAdults18AndOver.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29679\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150731_-LivingArrangementsAdults18AndOver.png\" alt=\"Living alone and living unmarried with a partner have pushed the rate of spousal living toward 50%\" width=\"550\" height=\"508\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150731_-LivingArrangementsAdults18AndOver.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150731_-LivingArrangementsAdults18AndOver-300x277.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29679\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Living alone and living unmarried with a partner have pushed the rate of spousal living toward 50%<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/hhes\/families\/files\/graphics\/AD3b.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">The U.S. Census Bureau<\/a><\/strong><\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29681\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29681\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150731_YoungAdultsLivingInParentalHome.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29681\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150731_YoungAdultsLivingInParentalHome.png\" alt=\"Young women are experiencing the most change in living arrangements with respect to parents.\" width=\"550\" height=\"412\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150731_YoungAdultsLivingInParentalHome.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150731_YoungAdultsLivingInParentalHome-300x225.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29681\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Young women are experiencing the most change in living arrangements with respect to parents.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.census.gov\/hhes\/families\/files\/graphics\/AD-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">The U.S. Census Bureau<\/a><\/strong><\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}&#8230;it is premature to suggest that a new, long-term trend is underway for all these segments of young adults. If the trends in household formation DO persist, then they could imply on-going delays in spousal living if the phases of adulthood continue the current sequence.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Most recently, DR Horton Inc. (DHI) reported <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/dr-horton-sees-pickup-in-entry-level-home-sales-2015-07-28\" target=\"_blank\">strong earnings that included a pick-up in entry-level sales<\/a>. This encouraging news complements <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3280155-new-signs-of-life-from-entry-level-homebuyers\" target=\"_blank\">an increase in first-timers in recent existing home sales data<\/a>. Such news has proved tantalizingly elusive for homebuilders; I even argued earlier that <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3230496-using-the-feds-report-on-economic-well-being-to-gauge-prospects-for-the-housing-market\" target=\"_blank\">new first-time buyers are not likely to show up in greater number or share this year<\/a>. The subsequent rally in DHI shares helps demonstrate the potentially strong impact from small, yet positive, changes in the first-time buying demographic discussed above. A fresh reduction in long-term interest rates has also likely helped iShares US Home Construction (ITB) in its latest rise toward 8-year highs.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29693\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29693\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150731_ITB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29693\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150731_ITB.png\" alt=\"The iShares US Home Construction (ITB) is on the move again toward a fresh 8-year high\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150731_ITB.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/150731_ITB-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29693\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The iShares US Home Construction (ITB) is on the move again toward a fresh 8-year high<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long ITB<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 3, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3389285-demographics-weigh-on-the-u-s-homeownership-rate\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 3, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The rate of homeownership in the U.S. fell a fraction of a percent in the second quarter &#8211; from 63.8% in the first quarter to 63.4%. Many headlines rang with alarm. &#8230; <a title=\"Demographics Weigh On the U.S. Homeownership Rate\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/07\/demographics-weigh-on-the-u-s-homeownership-rate\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1174,35],"tags":[1593,1350,1206],"class_list":["post-29615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-demographics-2","category-housing","tag-housing","tag-ishares-us-home-construction","tag-itb"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Demographics Weigh On the U.S. Homeownership Rate - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/07\/demographics-weigh-on-the-u-s-homeownership-rate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Demographics Weigh On the U.S. Homeownership Rate - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 3, 2015. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) The rate of homeownership in the U.S. fell a fraction of a percent in the second quarter &#8211; from 63.8% in the first quarter to 63.4%. Many headlines rang with alarm. ... 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