{"id":29500,"date":"2015-07-27T09:24:08","date_gmt":"2015-07-27T16:24:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=29500"},"modified":"2015-07-27T09:24:08","modified_gmt":"2015-07-27T16:24:08","slug":"the-commodity-crash-accelerates-a-new-juncture-for-buying-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/27\/the-commodity-crash-accelerates-a-new-juncture-for-buying-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"The Commodity Crash Accelerates: A New Juncture for Buying Gold"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

This month’s acceleration in the now 4-year sell-off in commodities seems to indicate that markets are getting serious about bracing for a tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve. I have mainly bought and traded gold as a hedge on Federal Reserve monetary policy. From this perspective, I can understand why gold (and commodities in general) is sliding in what SHOULD be the last few months before a first rate hike. However, based on the behavior of the futures markets in the past six weeks or so, I have concluded that there is a good possibility the Fed could capitulate on its pledge to hike rates in 2015 – especially given the case for a rate hike remains very mixed given weakness in global economies that now include Canada’s official entry into the club of advanced economies moving backward on rates<\/a>.<\/p>\n

While many analysts continue to insist that Fed is determined to start hiking rates in September, the 30-Day Fed Funds Futures as published by the CME Group Fed Watch<\/a> have consistently produced different conclusions. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The odds for the timing of a first Fed rate hike has generally increased in the last month, but September is not even on the market’s radar.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: The CME Group Fed Watch<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The odds for a first rate hike flip from December to October on June 5th<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n
\"The<\/a>
The odds for a first rate hike flip back to October from December on June 15th<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\"The<\/a>
The odds for a first rate hike flip from December to January, 2016 on July 2nd<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSources: The CME Group Fed Watch<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

So while commodities are sliding sharply this month, the possibility of a Fed surprise makes current levels very enticing. The time to buy insurance is when the market provides it at a heavy discount and not when it is dear. I now see some signs in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and in Google Trends that favor starting or adding to positions.<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The losses in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) have accelerated this month<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

My commodity crash playbook<\/a> does not cover gold directly because of its role as a currency, but the principles of respecting trends and momentum have aptly applied. {snip}<\/p>\n

While Friday’s bounce is encouraging, I am even more intrigued in the possibility of a bottom because of a shift in market sentiment as shown by Google Trends. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Google<\/a>
Google trends is flashing a buy signal as the search term “buy gold” surges in July without an accompanying pop in “sell gold”<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Google Trends<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long GLD<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) This month’s acceleration in the now 4-year sell-off in commodities seems to indicate that markets are getting serious about bracing for a tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve. I have mainly … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,58],"tags":[1595,471,200,24,473,1164,129,115],"class_list":["post-29500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-federal-reserve","tag-federal-reserve","tag-gg","tag-gld","tag-gold","tag-goldcorp-inc","tag-google-trends","tag-market-sentiment","tag-monetary-policy"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Commodity Crash Accelerates: A New Juncture for Buying Gold - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/27\/the-commodity-crash-accelerates-a-new-juncture-for-buying-gold\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Commodity Crash Accelerates: A New Juncture for Buying Gold - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 27, 2015. 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