{"id":29303,"date":"2015-07-14T22:24:35","date_gmt":"2015-07-15T05:24:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=29303"},"modified":"2015-07-14T22:24:35","modified_gmt":"2015-07-15T05:24:35","slug":"not-worrying-about-chinas-impact-on-the-u-s-housing-market-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/14\/not-worrying-about-chinas-impact-on-the-u-s-housing-market-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Not Worrying About China’s Impact on the U.S. Housing Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

There are plenty of reasons to worry about the U.S. housing market. I am not adding China’s recent market turmoil to the list.<\/p>\n

In a piece called “Will China flee or flood U.S. housing?<\/a>“, the Nightly Business Report (NBR) last week provided a short discussion weighing different scenarios for China’s potential impact on U.S. housing. The big number is $29B: the amount of money Chinese nationals invested in U.S. housing in the past year. {snip}<\/p>\n

NBR’s report was based on the June, 2015 release of the National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) annual Profile of International Home Buying Activity<\/a>. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Foreign<\/a>
Foreign buyers of U.S. real estate are dominated by five countries with purchases concentrated in four states, relaying predominantly on cash transactions<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: The National Association of Realtors<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Sales to international buyers were just 8% of total existing-home sales dollar volume. {snip}<\/p>\n

Another more interesting consideration is the U.S.’s competition with other favorite spots for Chinese real estate buyers: Australia, Canada, and the UK. {snip} The U.S. is still the #1 spot for Chinese buyers, but if the U.S. market loses out, it will likely be only on a relative basis in an overall flight to safety and value. <\/p>\n

Perhaps the Chinese government should worry more about the economic choices of its wealthiest citizens than the destinations for their money. This stat quoted by The Guardian is quite telling:<\/p>\n

“Since 2000, China has had the world\u2019s largest outflow of high-net-worth individuals. Around 91,000 wealthy Chinese sought second citizenship between 2000 and 2014, according to a report by residence investment broker Lion Global, a factor that is fuelling demand to buy foreign property.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This flight supports the implicit conclusion in the NBR piece that the more likely impact of China’s financial turmoil is an increase in interest in U.S. real estate, not a decline.<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"iShares<\/a>
iShares US Home Construction (ITB) holds steady as the rest of the U.S. stock market churns<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long ITB, FXC<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) There are plenty of reasons to worry about the U.S. housing market. I am not adding China’s recent market turmoil to the list. 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