{"id":29246,"date":"2015-08-12T13:52:01","date_gmt":"2015-08-12T20:52:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=29246"},"modified":"2015-08-12T13:52:01","modified_gmt":"2015-08-12T20:52:01","slug":"the-shrinking-australian-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/12\/the-shrinking-australian-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"The Shrinking Australian Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 8, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3310655-the-shrinking-australian-dollar\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Against <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3303875-australian-dollar-poised-for-a-bounce-after-holiday-trading-overreacts-to-economic-data\" target=\"_blank\">my previous expectations<\/a>, the Australian dollar (FXA) continues to shrink.<\/p>\n<p>First the Chinese government panicked with successive rate cuts and next <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3303845-chinas-a-shares-bargain-hunting-and-the-price-to-fear-ratio?ifp=0&#038;app=1\" target=\"_blank\">direct manipulation in its stock markets<\/a>. Now it seems that retail investors in China are ready to throw in the towel as the Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC) continues to fall. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/102816517\" target=\"_blank\">From CNBC<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Whenever I hear a market system compared to a feedback loop, my ears perk up. I am assuming Hong really meant to describe the selling as a <strong>positive<\/strong> feedback loop or even better to call it a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Selling begets selling as traders conclude that the downward trend from the top is the new reality. {snip}ssssssssss<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29247\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29247\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150707_SSEC.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150707_SSEC.png\" alt=\"A persistent sell-off closes in on reversing all of 2015&#039;s breathtaking gains\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29247\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150707_SSEC.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150707_SSEC-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29247\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A persistent sell-off closes in on reversing all of 2015&#8217;s breathtaking gains<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29248\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29248\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150707_FXA-weekly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150707_FXA-weekly.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar&#039;s decline from the 2011 peak in commodities has apparently resumed\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29248\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150707_FXA-weekly.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150707_FXA-weekly-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29248\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar&#8217;s decline from the 2011 peak in commodities has apparently resumed<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Australia is of course heavily dependent upon China as its largest export market for commodities. The resumption of selling in iron ore underpins the renewed weakness in the Australian dollar and adds more confirmation of pressures in China. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The soaring odds of a rate cut for the August meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia&#8217;s (RBA) is providing a near final confirmation of the self-reinforcing loop between China and the Australian dollar. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29259\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29259\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150708_EURAUD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150708_EURAUD.png\" alt=\"As the euro appears to stabilize against major currencies, it is gaining ground on the shrinking Australian dollar\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29259\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150708_EURAUD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150708_EURAUD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29259\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">As the euro appears to stabilize against major currencies, it is gaining ground on the shrinking Australian dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net long the Australian dollar<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 8, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3310655-the-shrinking-australian-dollar\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 8, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Against my previous expectations, the Australian dollar (FXA) continues to shrink. First the Chinese government panicked with successive rate cuts and next direct manipulation in its stock markets. Now it seems &#8230; <a title=\"The Shrinking Australian Dollar\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/12\/the-shrinking-australian-dollar\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,4,199,20],"tags":[308,310,1589,996,309,60,676],"class_list":["post-29246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-china","category-commodities","category-forex","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-china","tag-euraud","tag-fxa","tag-interest-rate","tag-iron-ore"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Shrinking Australian Dollar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/12\/the-shrinking-australian-dollar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Shrinking Australian Dollar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 8, 2015. 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