{"id":29174,"date":"2015-07-03T17:42:16","date_gmt":"2015-07-04T00:42:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=29174"},"modified":"2015-07-03T17:55:17","modified_gmt":"2015-07-04T00:55:17","slug":"the-united-states-oil-fund-flirts-with-a-breakdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/03\/the-united-states-oil-fund-flirts-with-a-breakdown\/","title":{"rendered":"The United States Oil Fund Flirts With A Breakdown"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A little over two weeks ago <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/06\/16\/simple-trading-scenarios-for-the-united-states-oil-etf\/\" target=\"_blank\">I generated some simple trading scenarios<\/a> for the United States Oil Fund LP (USO). The scenarios depended upon well-behaved volatility for oil, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cboe.com\/micro\/oilvix\/introduction.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index<\/a> (OVX). OVX is now on the edge of breaking out above its 50-day moving average (DMA). The move was led by a huge surge on Monday.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29176\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29176\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150702_OVX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150702_OVX.png\" alt=\"Oil&#039;s volatility is breaking out above its 50DMA, but it is still well below the pre-OPEC peak\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29176\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150702_OVX.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150702_OVX-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29176\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Oil&#8217;s volatility is breaking out above its 50DMA, but it is still well below the pre-OPEC peak<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I am not clear why OVX surged so much on Monday and then made little progress for the rest of the week. Perhaps traders were anticipating the bearish news of a fresh U.S. inventory build (Wednesday, July 1). <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29182\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29182\" style=\"width: 359px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150703_USCrudeOiStocks.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150703_USCrudeOiStocks.png\" alt=\"U.S. stocks of crude oil ticked higher and bucked the recent trend of persistent drawdowns\" width=\"369\" height=\"507\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29182\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150703_USCrudeOiStocks.png 369w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150703_USCrudeOiStocks-218x300.png 218w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 369px) 100vw, 369px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29182\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">U.S. stocks of crude oil ticked higher and bucked the recent trend of persistent drawdowns<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/petroleum\/weekly\/archive\/2015\/150701\/includes\/analysis_print.cfm\" target=\"_blank\">This Week in Petroleum, July 1, 2015, The U.S. Energy Information Association<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>On Thursday, July 2, we learned that <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/comes-baker-hughes-rig-count-164135037.html;_ylt=AwrC1zGTLJdVdwIAQiuTmYlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTByMDgyYjJiBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMyBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzYw--\" target=\"_blank\">the combined oil and gas rig count increased for the first time since December, 2014<\/a>. The oil rig count decreased for the 29th straight week.<\/p>\n<p>OVX has not yet closed above the pre-OPEC peak, so I have not yet triggered a bearish bias against USO. However, USO is on the edge of a breakdown.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_29177\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-29177\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150702_USO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150702_USO.png\" alt=\"United States Oil Fund LP (USO)  is on the edge of a breakdown\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-29177\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150702_USO.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/150702_USO-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-29177\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">United States Oil Fund LP (USO)  is on the edge of a breakdown<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Sticking to my trading strategy, I doubled down on USO call options on Thursday, July 2. I am essentially betting the $19 bottom of the trading range will hold. Another lower close will confirm a breakdown below the 50DMA pivot and an end to the trading range. Even in that scenario, I will <strong>likely<\/strong> wait for the OVX signal before attempting a fade on USO while it is sinking. In other words, there could be a dead, &#8220;no trade&#8221; zone in the first stages of a breakdown for USO. Stay tuned..!<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long USO call options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A little over two weeks ago I generated some simple trading scenarios for the United States Oil Fund LP (USO). The scenarios depended upon well-behaved volatility for oil, the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX). OVX is now on the edge of breaking out above its 50-day moving average (DMA). The move was led &#8230; <a title=\"The United States Oil Fund Flirts With A Breakdown\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/03\/the-united-states-oil-fund-flirts-with-a-breakdown\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,199,377,62,982],"tags":[536,1555,1597,1375,538,178],"class_list":["post-29174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-commodities","category-oil","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-oil-2","tag-ovx","tag-technical-analysis","tag-united-states-oil-fund","tag-uso","tag-volatility"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The United States Oil Fund Flirts With A Breakdown - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/03\/the-united-states-oil-fund-flirts-with-a-breakdown\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The United States Oil Fund Flirts With A Breakdown - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A little over two weeks ago I generated some simple trading scenarios for the United States Oil Fund LP (USO). 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