{"id":29048,"date":"2015-07-30T19:36:51","date_gmt":"2015-07-31T02:36:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=29048"},"modified":"2015-07-30T19:36:51","modified_gmt":"2015-07-31T02:36:51","slug":"turkish-lira-completes-a-post-election-reversal-as-central-bank-waits-on-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/30\/turkish-lira-completes-a-post-election-reversal-as-central-bank-waits-on-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkish Lira Completes A Post-Election Reversal As Central Bank Waits On Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 28, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Since I laid out a post-election trading strategy on the Turkish Lira<\/a> (USD\/TRY) two weeks ago, events have gone on a very slow burn. The currency and the stock market have been surprisingly calm overall despite the unfolding wrangling to form a government. Post-election gaps filled this past week.<\/p>\n


\n
\"iShares<\/a>
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) quickly filled the post-election gap but has stalled at resistance from the 50-day moving average<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The Turkish lira has also filled the post-election gap and now pivots around its 50-day moving average<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

So the narrative for a complete reversal of the post-election gap played out after all. {snip}<\/p>\n

There remains an important economic wildcard looming over this trade. As the charts above show, the Turkish central bank issued its latest statement on monetary policy<\/a> on June 23, 2015 (I used Google Translate to read it). That event happened to coincide with the current top on TUR. The Bank decided to keep rates constant despite the weakening currency. The continued lack of action implies that the Bank may still feel political pressure to avoid rate hikes even after the recent election should have relieved some of this pressure. <\/p>\n

On the inflation front, the Bank seems content to hope inflationary pressures abate on their own. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Turkey<\/a>
Turkey has made tremendous progress in controlling inflation<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: TradingEconomics.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The Bank pointed to volatility in food and energy prices and to “uncertainty in global markets” as reasons for staying cautious on policy. {snip}<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long USD\/TRY<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 28, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 28, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Since I laid out a post-election trading strategy on the Turkish Lira (USD\/TRY) two weeks ago, events have gone on a very slow burn. The currency and the stock market have … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,1417],"tags":[1598,1318,115,1319,1556,1308,1309],"class_list":["post-29048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-turkey","tag-inflation","tag-ishares-msci-turkey","tag-monetary-policy","tag-tur","tag-turkish-centra","tag-turkish-lira","tag-usdtry"],"yoast_head":"\nTurkish Lira Completes A Post-Election Reversal As Central Bank Waits On Inflation - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/30\/turkish-lira-completes-a-post-election-reversal-as-central-bank-waits-on-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Turkish Lira Completes A Post-Election Reversal As Central Bank Waits On Inflation - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 28, 2015. 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