{"id":28723,"date":"2015-07-23T00:35:56","date_gmt":"2015-07-23T07:35:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=28723"},"modified":"2015-07-23T00:35:56","modified_gmt":"2015-07-23T07:35:56","slug":"trading-the-recent-divergence-of-the-canadian-dollar-and-oil-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/23\/trading-the-recent-divergence-of-the-canadian-dollar-and-oil-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Trading the Recent Divergence of the Canadian Dollar and Oil Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 8, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3241876-trading-the-recent-divergence-of-the-canadian-dollar-and-oil-prices\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Over the past month the Canadian dollar (FXC) has significantly diverged from oil prices.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_28739\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-28739\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150605_OilVsCanadianDollar.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150605_OilVsCanadianDollar.png\" alt=\"Over the past month, the Canadian dollar (vs the U.S. dollar) has notably weakened even as oil prices have stabilized\" width=\"550\" height=\"365\" class=\"size-full wp-image-28739\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150605_OilVsCanadianDollar.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150605_OilVsCanadianDollar-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-28739\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Over the past month, the Canadian dollar (vs the U.S. dollar) has notably weakened even as oil prices have stabilized<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?g=1dK7\" target=\"_blank\">The St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>This divergence is not a surprise given <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2770925-the-canadian-dollar-and-oil-an-imperfect-partnership\" target=\"_blank\">the weak correlations between the currency and oil prices since at least 2008<\/a>. However, the sharpness of the divergence since mid-May IS a surprise that I do not think will sustain itself for much longer. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_28696\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-28696\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150605_DXY0.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150605_DXY0.png\" alt=\"U.S. jobs data reawakens the U.S. dollar but overhead resistance remains firmly in place\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-28696\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150605_DXY0.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150605_DXY0-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-28696\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">U.S. jobs data reawakens the U.S. dollar but overhead resistance remains firmly in place<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_28745\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-28745\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_USDCAD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_USDCAD.png\" alt=\"Over the past two weeks, the Canadian dollar has stabilized against the U.S. dollar. This sideways action followed two weeks of persistent weakness\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-28745\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_USDCAD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_USDCAD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-28745\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Over the past two weeks, the Canadian dollar has stabilized against the U.S. dollar. This sideways action followed two weeks of persistent weakness<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_28742\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-28742\" style=\"width: 548px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_CanadaGDP.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_CanadaGDP.png\" alt=\"GDP growth in Canada has taken a sharp turn downward\" width=\"558\" height=\"453\" class=\"size-full wp-image-28742\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_CanadaGDP.png 558w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_CanadaGDP-300x244.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 558px) 100vw, 558px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-28742\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">GDP growth in Canada has taken a sharp turn downward<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.statcan.gc.ca\/daily-quotidien\/150529\/dq150529a-eng.htm?HPA\" target=\"_blank\">Statistics Canada<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Of the biggest drivers of the negative GDP print, exports concern me the most since it implies that a weaker Canadian dollar did not deliver as expected and hoped. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>This export performance added to a fourth quarter in a row of declining terms of trade for Canada. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The jobs report is also a source of optimism. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The current &#8220;stalemate&#8221; comes right back to oil then as a possible &#8220;tie-breaker&#8221; until the next refresh for GDP and jobs. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_28748\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-28748\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150605_FXCvsUSO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150605_FXCvsUSO.png\" alt=\"In 2015, the gains of FXC over USO have come to  halt and settled into a trading range\" width=\"520\" height=\"318\" class=\"size-full wp-image-28748\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150605_FXCvsUSO.png 520w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150605_FXCvsUSO-300x183.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-28748\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">In 2015, the gains of FXC over USO have come to  halt and settled into a trading range<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=FXC%3AUSO&#038;p=D&#038;yr=1&#038;mn=0&#038;dy=0&#038;id=p55047382014\" target=\"_blank\">StockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Since the Canadian dollar and oil typically do not experience persistent divergences, I am expecting the Canadian dollar to regain some strength in the short-term even if oil just remains stable. Such a move would be consistent with a return to the top of the current trading range. Of course, this adjustment could also happen with fresh weakness in oil, so I am also on alert to trade USO bearishly if it breaks below recent lows. I am assuming that a fresh bounce in oil prices would be an unqualified positive for the Canadian dollar.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_28750\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-28750\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_cot-USD_CAD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_cot-USD_CAD.png\" alt=\"A rare window of relief from negative bets against the Canadian dollar\" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-28750\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_cot-USD_CAD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_cot-USD_CAD-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/150607_cot-USD_CAD-300x300.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-28750\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A rare window of relief from negative bets against the Canadian dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/fxtrade.oanda.com\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long FXC<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 8, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3241876-trading-the-recent-divergence-of-the-canadian-dollar-and-oil-prices\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 8, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Over the past month the Canadian dollar (FXC) has significantly diverged from oil prices. Source: The St. Louis Federal Reserve This divergence is not a surprise given the weak correlations between &#8230; <a title=\"Trading the Recent Divergence of the Canadian Dollar and Oil Prices\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/23\/trading-the-recent-divergence-of-the-canadian-dollar-and-oil-prices\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[235,20,377],"tags":[296,297,536,469,538],"class_list":["post-28723","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-canada","category-forex","category-oil","tag-canadian-dollar","tag-fxc","tag-oil-2","tag-usdcad","tag-uso"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trading the Recent Divergence of the Canadian Dollar and Oil Prices - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/23\/trading-the-recent-divergence-of-the-canadian-dollar-and-oil-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trading the Recent Divergence of the Canadian Dollar and Oil Prices - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 8, 2015. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) Over the past month the Canadian dollar (FXC) has significantly diverged from oil prices. Source: The St. Louis Federal Reserve This divergence is not a surprise given the weak correlations between ... 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