{"id":28148,"date":"2015-04-29T20:33:18","date_gmt":"2015-04-30T03:33:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=28148"},"modified":"2015-04-29T20:33:41","modified_gmt":"2015-04-30T03:33:41","slug":"t2108-update-150429","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/04\/29\/t2108-update-150429\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (April 29, 2015) – Back to the Chop"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 56.9%
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 56.0%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 13.4
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Neutral.
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #132 over 20%, Day #91 above 30%, Day #35 above 40%, Day #19 over 50% (overperiod), Day #1 under 60% (underperiod), Day #201 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nThe Federal Reserve issued its latest judgement on monetary policy and the economy<\/a>, and it resolved very little. Volatility did manage to increase post-Fed, but it was not meaningful relative to my flyer trade on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) call options. <\/p>\n

T2108 dipped below 60% again as the S&P 500 (SPY) dropped fractionally. Even with the 50DMA continuing its ever so subtle uptrend, the S&P 500 remains effectively trapped within a chopfest. The Fed was not able to release any pent-up energy to the upside or downside.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 chops away in the middle of a VERY subtle uptrend<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The biggest headline for me is the end of the U.S. dollar’s (DXY0) primary uptrend. Today marked convincing follow-through on the breakdown.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The primary uptrend of the U.S. dollar comes to an end<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

This is happening at the same time yields are increasing again. The combination of dollar weakness and higher yields could suggest a marginal reversal in the attractiveness of the U.S. to foreign investors and traders.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) is breaking down again<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I am honestly not ready to jump off the dollar bull bandwagon. Yet, the technicals force me to do so. As I stated in my last fundamentally-driven article<\/a>, I practiced the new discipline by cleaning out all my forex positions the night before the Federal Reserve meeting – and thank goodness! I expect this breakdown to cause a lot of ripple effects that should increase volatility in currency markets until traders get used to a new paradigm.<\/p>\n

Moving on quickly to individual stocks, I have several charts of interest. Commentary is included at the bottom of the charts…<\/p>\n


\n
\"Apple<\/a>
Apple (AAPL) post-earnings is looking toppy yet again with a bearish engulfing right at fresh all-time highs<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n
\"iShares<\/a>
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) has failed two days in a row to maintain a hold of its 50DMA uptrend…<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"...however,<\/a>
…however, intraday trading shows that selling surged in the first hour of trading on Tuesday. A bearish breakdown is not confirmed until IBB cracks this low. The selling may be the mark of an early washout.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"Two<\/a>
Two key pivots have developed for Twitter (TWTR): $50 at the top and around $38.50 at the bottom<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\"salesforce.com,<\/a>
salesforce.com, inc. (CRM) catapults off 50DMA support in a bullish resolution of post-earnings wedge that was starting to press on the 50DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center>Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long UVXY call options, long TLT call options, long IBB put options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456,300,219,599,1311,62,21],"tags":[250,534,1352,299,1595,1522,1523,65,1365,226,1597,280,1257,1258,1591],"class_list":["post-28148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bonds-2","category-health-care","category-high-tech","category-internet","category-software","category-technical-analysis","category-u-s-dollar","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc","tag-crm","tag-dxy0","tag-federal-reserve","tag-ibb","tag-ishares-nasdaq-biotechnology","tag-sp-500","tag-salesforce-com","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-tlt","tag-twitter","tag-twtr","tag-u-s-dollar"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (April 29, 2015) - Back to the Chop - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/04\/29\/t2108-update-150429\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (April 29, 2015) - Back to the Chop - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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