{"id":28004,"date":"2015-07-23T00:19:13","date_gmt":"2015-07-23T07:19:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=28004"},"modified":"2015-07-23T00:19:13","modified_gmt":"2015-07-23T07:19:13","slug":"strong-economic-news-bolsters-the-case-for-the-canadian-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/23\/strong-economic-news-bolsters-the-case-for-the-canadian-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Strong Economic News Bolsters the Case for the Canadian Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 20, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3081426-strong-economic-news-bolsters-the-case-for-the-canadian-dollar\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3074206-time-to-start-buying-canada\" target=\"_blank\">my last post<\/a> on the Canadian dollar (FXC), I claimed that it was time to start buying Canada while at the same time cautioning about an over-extension in the currency in reaction to the latest statement on monetary policy. The Canadian dollar managed to continue gaining strength over the next two days. However, the reaction to Friday&#8217;s (April 17th) strong economic numbers finally demonstrated what can happen when a currency gets over-extended.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_28005\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-28005\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/150417_USDCAD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/150417_USDCAD.png\" alt=\"A new lower trading range is likely developing for the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-28005\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/150417_USDCAD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/150417_USDCAD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-28005\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A new lower trading range is likely developing for the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Despite the Canadian dollar&#8217;s reversal in the wake of the economic news, I think the data further bolsters the case for an end to the Canadian dollar&#8217;s earlier weakness. The economic news on Friday seems to confirm my earlier conclusion that the Bank of Canada will not be cutting rates again and that its next move will likely be to reverse the rate cut, perhaps as early as 2016. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_28007\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-28007\" style=\"width: 548px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/150417_CanadaMarchCPI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/150417_CanadaMarchCPI.png\" alt=\"Canada&#039;s CPI excluding gasoline is still above 2%\" width=\"558\" height=\"477\" class=\"size-full wp-image-28007\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/150417_CanadaMarchCPI.png 558w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/150417_CanadaMarchCPI-300x256.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 558px) 100vw, 558px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-28007\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Canada&#8217;s CPI excluding gasoline is still above 2%<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.statcan.gc.ca\/daily-quotidien\/150417\/dq150417a-eng.htm?HPA\" target=\"_blank\">Statistics Canada<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Retail sales in February rebounded after two consecutive months of declines. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Oil is of course the major wildcard for Canada. Note well that the Canadian dollar&#8217;s weakness against the U.S. dollar topped out exactly where oil last bottomed out on March 18th, shown below as a bullish surge from the lows by the United States Oil ETF (USO).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_27984\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-27984\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/150417_USO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/150417_USO.png\" alt=\"United States Oil ETF (USO) is holding support and trending upward again but it now faces a challenge beating out the February highs\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-27984\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/150417_USO.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/150417_USO-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-27984\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">United States Oil ETF (USO) is holding support and trending upward again but it now faces a challenge beating out the February highs<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long USD\/CAD, long FXC<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 20, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3081426-strong-economic-news-bolsters-the-case-for-the-canadian-dollar\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 20, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) In my last post on the Canadian dollar (FXC), I claimed that it was time to start buying Canada while at the same time cautioning about an over-extension in the currency &#8230; <a title=\"Strong Economic News Bolsters the Case for the Canadian Dollar\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/23\/strong-economic-news-bolsters-the-case-for-the-canadian-dollar\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[235,59,20,377],"tags":[296,116,297,1598,536,1305,469,538],"class_list":["post-28004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-canada","category-economy","category-forex","category-oil","tag-canadian-dollar","tag-cpi","tag-fxc","tag-inflation","tag-oil-2","tag-retail-sales","tag-usdcad","tag-uso"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Strong Economic News Bolsters the Case for the Canadian Dollar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/07\/23\/strong-economic-news-bolsters-the-case-for-the-canadian-dollar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Strong Economic News Bolsters the Case for the Canadian Dollar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 20, 2015. 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