{"id":27500,"date":"2015-05-30T12:07:03","date_gmt":"2015-05-30T19:07:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=27500"},"modified":"2015-05-30T12:07:03","modified_gmt":"2015-05-30T19:07:03","slug":"a-race-against-bearish-sentiment-and-volatility-for-the-united-states-oil-etf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/05\/30\/a-race-against-bearish-sentiment-and-volatility-for-the-united-states-oil-etf\/","title":{"rendered":"A Race Against Bearish Sentiment And Volatility for the United States Oil ETF"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

On March 5, 2015, Barron’s Blogs published a short article on a large bet against volatility on United States Oil ETF (USO) called “Big Options Bet Sees Oil ETF Rangebound into 2017<\/a>.” {snip}
\n


\n
\"An<\/a>
An extended period of relative tranquility has been rudely interrupted<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Directionless, long-term bets seem very reasonable especially given the runway allowed to close-out the trade at a profit well ahead of expiration.<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

The Barron’s blog indicated that the big trade will work as long as USO remains within the range of $12.30\/share to $25.70\/share. It did not provide the specific strikes, so I directly reviewed the Jan 2017 strikes for large increases in open interest. After this process, I concluded that the swell of negative short-term bets combined with the dispersion of opinion on longer-term bets makes a directionless bet more intriguing. {snip}<\/p>\n

On a short-term basis, the opinion on USO is definitively negative although sentiment has hit even more negative levels before the big sell-off started. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The overall open interest put\/call ratio stair-stepped tentatively until AFTER USO made its last major low<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Schaeffer’s Investment Research<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

In other words, the market only recently started to accept the bearish nature of the trading in USO as a result of the bearish fundamentals…{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Volatility<\/a>
Volatility across financial markets has expanded rapidly from last year's levels – oil stands out as having reached levels of volatility equal to those of the financial crisis<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"It<\/a>
It took a while for the market to accept the tremendous downside potential on USO. The volatility index did not even reach a new high until the sell-off was about 3 months old.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The volatility index on USO peaked just after its recent low.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Schaeffer’s Investment Research<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The behavior of the SVI suggests that the market in USO is very reactive rather than predictive. {snip}<\/p>\n

Like the open interest put\/call ratio, it took the failure of OPEC’s November meeting to prop up prices for USO shorts to get really serious. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Shares<\/a>
Shares short on USO were sitting at a major low one month into the sell-off…<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Schaeffer’s Investment Research<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"...and<\/a>
…and shares short did not take-off in earnest until December (after OPEC could not decide to cut production to try to prop up prices)<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Schaeffer’s Investment Research<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"United<\/a>
United States Oil ETF (USO) makes a new (intraday) all-time low shortly after opening for trading on March 16, 2015<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On March 5, 2015, Barron’s Blogs published a short article on a large bet against volatility on United States Oil ETF (USO) called “Big Options Bet Sees Oil ETF Rangebound into … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[377,32],"tags":[1514,1515,536,155,1512,538],"class_list":["post-27500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-oil","category-options","tag-iea","tag-international-energy-agency","tag-oil-2","tag-options-trading","tag-united-states-oil-etf","tag-uso"],"yoast_head":"\nA Race Against Bearish Sentiment And Volatility for the United States Oil ETF - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/05\/30\/a-race-against-bearish-sentiment-and-volatility-for-the-united-states-oil-etf\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Race Against Bearish Sentiment And Volatility for the United States Oil ETF - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2015. 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