{"id":27063,"date":"2015-02-17T22:21:53","date_gmt":"2015-02-18T06:21:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=27063"},"modified":"2015-02-17T22:21:53","modified_gmt":"2015-02-18T06:21:53","slug":"hard-to-blame-the-weather-for-the-drop-in-home-builder-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/02\/17\/hard-to-blame-the-weather-for-the-drop-in-home-builder-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"Hard to Blame the Weather for the Drop in Home Builder Sentiment"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 17, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2922946-hard-to-blame-the-weather-for-the-drop-in-home-builder-sentiment\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The National Association of Home Builders\/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nahb.org\/news_details.aspx?sectionID=134&#038;newsID=17117\" target=\"_blank\">for February came in at 55<\/a>. The biggest change in the index came from a large drop in the component measuring sentiment on the traffic of prospective buyers; this measure dropped 11% from 44 to 39. While the HMI remains in solid territory (above 50), this component drop will be something to watch closely. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_27066\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-27066\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150217_HMI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150217_HMI.png\" alt=\"It&#039;s looking more and more like the Housing Market Index is settling into a range\" width=\"550\" height=\"399\" class=\"size-full wp-image-27066\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150217_HMI.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150217_HMI-300x218.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-27066\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">It&#8217;s looking more and more like the Housing Market Index is settling into a range<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nahb.org\/news_details.aspx?sectionID=134&#038;newsID=17117\" target=\"_blank\">National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>As is if often the case, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) provided an unsatisfactory explanation for the change in numbers. This month&#8217;s explanation was borderline bewildering:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing the reaction in iShares US Home Construction (ITB) is relatively mild with a 0.3% drop. Overall, ITB is still riding a strong recovery from recent lows. It is still trading at near 8-year highs with a marginal breakout.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_27064\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-27064\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150217_ITB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150217_ITB.png\" alt=\"iShares US Home Construction (ITB)  remains in breakout territory\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-27064\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150217_ITB.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150217_ITB-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-27064\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">iShares US Home Construction (ITB)  remains in breakout territory<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 17, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2922946-hard-to-blame-the-weather-for-the-drop-in-home-builder-sentiment\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 17, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The National Association of Home Builders\/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for February came in at 55. The biggest change in the index came from a large drop in the component &#8230; <a title=\"Hard to Blame the Weather for the Drop in Home Builder Sentiment\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/02\/17\/hard-to-blame-the-weather-for-the-drop-in-home-builder-sentiment\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[1160,1593,1350,1206,1162,1161],"class_list":["post-27063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-housing","tag-hmi","tag-housing","tag-ishares-us-home-construction","tag-itb","tag-nahb","tag-national-association-of-home-builders"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hard to Blame the Weather for the Drop in Home Builder Sentiment - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/02\/17\/hard-to-blame-the-weather-for-the-drop-in-home-builder-sentiment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hard to Blame the Weather for the Drop in Home Builder Sentiment - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 17, 2015. 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