{"id":27,"date":"2009-09-08T22:06:20","date_gmt":"2009-09-09T03:06:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=27"},"modified":"2009-09-08T22:18:58","modified_gmt":"2009-09-09T03:18:58","slug":"dollar-hits-11-month-lows-time-for-a-relief-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/09\/08\/dollar-hits-11-month-lows-time-for-a-relief-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Hits 11-Month Lows – Time for A Relief Rally?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The dollar’s inexorable descent continued Tuesday as the index hit fresh 11-month lows after consolidating for 4 weeks.<\/p>\n

\"U.S.
U.S. Dollar Index Hits 11-Month Lows<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Accompanying the most recent weakening in the dollar has been a surge in gold and silver. Gold touched $1000\/ounce and silver is now up about 44% for the year. Barrick Gold (ABX) has FINALLY eliminated its gold hedges<\/a> in anticipation of further appreciation in the metal. At the same time, the Euro and the Australian dollar are making fresh 10 and 13-month highs respectively against the dollar. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) piled on in its just released annual report by recommending<\/a> “a new international reserve system that does not use a national currency as a reserve asset.” (Yes, that means no more king U.S. dollar).<\/p>\n

This all seems like a recipe for a straight line back to the September, 2008 lows and fresh multi-year lows, except the Yen has also been surprisingly strong, especially against the dollar. <\/p>\n\"FXY\n

Typically, the Yen’s rise has occurred in parallel or ahead of some kind of weakness in the stock market. I might speculate that traders are calling in their Yen and using the dollar for borrowing funds for executing carry trades, except that I continue to read claims that the Yen carry trade remains alive and well for now<\/a>. So, I am frankly at a bit of a loss, but since I am inclined to believe that the S&P 500 has topped out for now, the Yen’s steady rise confirms my bias. And if the stock market reverses, the dollar should bounce – at least this has been the pattern of oscillation between risk-seeking and shelter-seeking.<\/p>\n

A relief rally in the dollar would come just as shorts are ramping up bets against the dollar<\/a>. Pressing such bets now gets more and more precarious. I have sold all my silver (SLV) for now, am keeping some gold (GLD), and have closed out currency bets against the dollar (in fact, I am looking to focus on shorting the Pound, especially if the Bank of England implements negative interest rates<\/a>). <\/p>\n

Needless to say, I will be watching closely how the currency\/commodity trades unfold in the coming days and weeks.<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long GLD, long SSO puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar’s inexorable descent continued Tuesday as the index hit fresh 11-month lows after consolidating for 4 weeks. Accompanying the most recent weakening in the dollar has been a surge in gold and silver. Gold touched $1000\/ounce and silver is now up about 44% for the year. Barrick Gold (ABX) has FINALLY eliminated its gold … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,21],"tags":[23,22,26,27,28,24,25,29,30],"class_list":["post-27","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-u-s-dollar","tag-abx","tag-barrick-gold","tag-currency","tag-dollar","tag-euro","tag-gold","tag-silver","tag-the-united-nations-conference-on-trade-and-development","tag-yen"],"yoast_head":"\nDollar Hits 11-Month Lows - Time for A Relief Rally? - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/09\/08\/dollar-hits-11-month-lows-time-for-a-relief-rally\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dollar Hits 11-Month Lows - Time for A Relief Rally? - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The dollar’s inexorable descent continued Tuesday as the index hit fresh 11-month lows after consolidating for 4 weeks. 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