{"id":26973,"date":"2015-02-17T22:27:01","date_gmt":"2015-02-18T06:27:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=26973"},"modified":"2015-02-17T22:27:01","modified_gmt":"2015-02-18T06:27:01","slug":"australias-heating-housing-market-pressures-monetary-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/02\/17\/australias-heating-housing-market-pressures-monetary-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia&#8217;s Heating Housing Market Pressures Monetary Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 11, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2905476-australias-heating-housing-market-pressures-monetary-policy\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/Latestproducts\/5609.0Main%20Features1Dec%202014?opendocument&#038;tabname=Summary&#038;prodno=5609.0&#038;issue=Dec%202014&#038;num=&#038;view=\" target=\"_blank\">The Australian Bureau of Statistics released its December, 2014 data on housing finance in Australia<\/a>. The data show that first-time home buyers continue to decline as a percentage of all dwellings financed. The last time the share was lower than December&#8217;s 14.5% reading was June, 2004.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_26974\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-26974\" style=\"width: 473px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_AustraliaFirstHomeBuyersShare.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_AustraliaFirstHomeBuyersShare.png\" alt=\"The share of first home buyers in Australia is at historic lows\" width=\"483\" height=\"357\" class=\"size-full wp-image-26974\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_AustraliaFirstHomeBuyersShare.png 483w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_AustraliaFirstHomeBuyersShare-300x222.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 483px) 100vw, 483px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-26974\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The share of first home buyers in Australia is at historic lows<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/AUSSTATS\/abs@.nsf\/DetailsPage\/5609.0Dec%202014?OpenDocument\" target=\"_blank\">Australian Bureau of Statistics<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>This decline in the share of first home buyers coincides with a continued increase in investor-driven activity in Australia&#8217;s housing market. These investors are likely steadily squeezing out first-timers as affordability declines. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Investor demand is likely helping to accelerate housing prices in Australia&#8217;s most populous cities: Sydney and Melbourne.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_26976\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-26976\" style=\"width: 326px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_AustraliaHousingPrices.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_AustraliaHousingPrices.png\" alt=\"The take-off in housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne are driving overall growth in house prices in Australia\" width=\"336\" height=\"314\" class=\"size-full wp-image-26976\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_AustraliaHousingPrices.png 336w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_AustraliaHousingPrices-300x280.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 336px) 100vw, 336px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-26976\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The take-off in housing prices in Sydney and Melbourne are driving overall growth in house prices in Australia<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/publications\/smp\/2015\/feb\/html\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">Reserve bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The RBA is finally starting to worry about the robust growth in housing prices &#8211; particularly the activity of investors &#8211; as it attempts to balance the Australian economy with lower interest rates:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>One sign of a potential housing bubble is a fall in rent relative to housing prices that makes renting an exceptionally better value than buying. This is exactly what may be starting to happen in Australia:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>With consumer price inflation at 1.7% for 2014, the RBA does not technically have a lot of room to continue lowering interest rates to drive the currency down. So I was surprised that the Statement on Monetary Policy did not contain any stronger language about the persistent over-valuation of the Australian dollar. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_26977\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-26977\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The RBA&#039;s rate cut so far has had no net impact on the Australian dollar\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-26977\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_AUDUSD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_AUDUSD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-26977\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The RBA&#8217;s rate cut so far has had no net impact on the Australian dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_26978\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-26978\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_ASXCashRateTargetRateTracker.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_ASXCashRateTargetRateTracker.png\" alt=\"RBA Rate Indicator - March 2015\" width=\"500\" height=\"220\" class=\"size-full wp-image-26978\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_ASXCashRateTargetRateTracker.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_ASXCashRateTargetRateTracker-300x132.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-26978\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">RBA Rate Indicator &#8211; March 2015<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.asx.com.au\/prices\/targetratetracker.htm\" target=\"_blank\">ASX RBA Rate Indicator<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_26979\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-26979\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_ASX30DayInterbankCashRateFuturesImpliedYieldCurve.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_ASX30DayInterbankCashRateFuturesImpliedYieldCurve.png\" alt=\"The market expects an eventual cut to 2% but not much else\" width=\"550\" height=\"339\" class=\"size-full wp-image-26979\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_ASX30DayInterbankCashRateFuturesImpliedYieldCurve.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/150210_ASX30DayInterbankCashRateFuturesImpliedYieldCurve-300x185.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-26979\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The market expects an eventual cut to 2% but not much else<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.asx.com.au\/data\/trt\/ib_expectation_curve_graph.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures Implied Yield Curve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>While the market waits for the RBA&#8217;s next pronouncements, I am guessing the exchange rate will be buffeted by the gyrations in commodity prices, iron ore and oil in particular. {snip} Together, these bounces have likely helped the Australian dollar stay off its lows&#8230;for now.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net short the Australian dollar<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 11, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2905476-australias-heating-housing-market-pressures-monetary-policy\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 11, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian Bureau of Statistics released its December, 2014 data on housing finance in Australia. The data show that first-time home buyers continue to decline as a percentage of all dwellings &#8230; <a title=\"Australia&#8217;s Heating Housing Market Pressures Monetary Policy\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/02\/17\/australias-heating-housing-market-pressures-monetary-policy\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,20,35],"tags":[308,1502,309,1593,306,203],"class_list":["post-26973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-forex","category-housing","tag-audusd","tag-australian","tag-fxa","tag-housing","tag-rba","tag-reserve-bank-of-australia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australia&#039;s Heating Housing Market Pressures Monetary Policy - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/02\/17\/australias-heating-housing-market-pressures-monetary-policy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia&#039;s Heating Housing Market Pressures Monetary Policy - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 11, 2015. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian Bureau of Statistics released its December, 2014 data on housing finance in Australia. The data show that first-time home buyers continue to decline as a percentage of all dwellings ... 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