{"id":26730,"date":"2015-08-19T21:53:34","date_gmt":"2015-08-20T04:53:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=26730"},"modified":"2015-08-19T21:53:34","modified_gmt":"2015-08-20T04:53:34","slug":"feds-insistence-on-transitory-disinflation-puts-a-pause-on-the-gld-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/19\/feds-insistence-on-transitory-disinflation-puts-a-pause-on-the-gld-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed&#8217;s Insistence On Transitory Disinflation Puts A Pause on the GLD Trade"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 29, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2861806-feds-insistence-on-transitory-disinflation-puts-a-pause-on-the-gld-trade\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This year has started for SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) in a fashion eerily similar to 2014. On December 18, 2013, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/press\/monetary\/20131218a.htm\" target=\"_blank\">the Federal Reserve officially announced the planned tapering of its bond buying program<\/a>, the effective winding down of quantitative easing. GLD fell 0.9% that day and then gapped down the next day, closing with an additional 2.4% loss. The drop came as no surprise since it appeared the Fed would successfully tighten policy well ahead of any inflation threat.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_26731\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-26731\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/150128_GLD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/150128_GLD.png\" alt=\"SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) starts another year with a strong rebound off recent lows\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-26731\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/150128_GLD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/150128_GLD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-26731\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) starts another year with a strong rebound off recent lows<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>GLD is now up 8.7% year-to-date even as plunging oil prices (OIL) have sent the fear of disinlfation\/deflation into the minds of central banks around the globe. The number of ounces of gold required to buy a barrel of oil has accelerated downward since GLD&#8217;s November bottom. The decline began in earnest June, 2014.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_26733\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-26733\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/150128_OilVsGold.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/150128_OilVsGold.png\" alt=\"It is taking less and less gold to buy a barrel of oil these days\" width=\"550\" height=\"445\" class=\"size-full wp-image-26733\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/150128_OilVsGold.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/150128_OilVsGold-300x243.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-26733\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">It is taking less and less gold to buy a barrel of oil these days<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Sources: London Bullion Market Association, Gold Fixing Price 3:00 P.M. (London time) in London Bullion Market, based in U.S. Dollars [GOLDPMGBD228NLBM], <a href=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/series\/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM\/\" target=\"_blank\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, January 28, 2015. US. Energy Information Administration, Crude Oil Prices: Brent &#8211; Europe [DCOILBRENTEU], <a href=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/series\/DCOILBRENTEU\/\" target=\"_blank\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, January 28, 2015.<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Over at the U.S. Federal Reserve, governors do not seem overly concerned. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Recently, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/pressconf\/2015\/html\/is150122.en.html\" target=\"_blank\">the European Central Bank<\/a> (ECB) and <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2839736-the-drivers-and-implications-of-the-bank-of-canadas-oil-driven-rate-cut\" target=\"_blank\">the Bank of Canada<\/a> have specifically blamed oil for generating enough broad-based disinflationary pressure to require a monetary response. Before the latest Fed statement, I was bracing for the possibility that the Fed would fall in line and declare\/hint that rate hikes were off the table for all of 2015. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>GLD&#8217;s recent rally has been even more impressive in the face of a near relentless rise in the U.S. dollar index (UUP). {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_26737\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-26737\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/150128_GLDvsDXY0.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/150128_GLDvsDXY0.png\" alt=\"GLD and the U.S. dollar have risen together in recent months\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-26737\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/150128_GLDvsDXY0.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/150128_GLDvsDXY0-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-26737\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">GLD and the U.S. dollar have risen together in recent months<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Given I have a core position in GLD, I do not project a lower price as a reflection of my preferred outcome. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long GLD<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 29, 2015. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2861806-feds-insistence-on-transitory-disinflation-puts-a-pause-on-the-gld-trade\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 29, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) This year has started for SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) in a fashion eerily similar to 2014. On December 18, 2013, the Federal Reserve officially announced the planned tapering of its bond &#8230; <a title=\"Fed&#8217;s Insistence On Transitory Disinflation Puts A Pause on the GLD Trade\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/19\/feds-insistence-on-transitory-disinflation-puts-a-pause-on-the-gld-trade\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,20,21],"tags":[1595,200,24,284,1591],"class_list":["post-26730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-forex","category-u-s-dollar","tag-federal-reserve","tag-gld","tag-gold","tag-spdr-gold-shares","tag-u-s-dollar"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed&#039;s Insistence On Transitory Disinflation Puts A Pause on the GLD Trade - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/08\/19\/feds-insistence-on-transitory-disinflation-puts-a-pause-on-the-gld-trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed&#039;s Insistence On Transitory Disinflation Puts A Pause on the GLD Trade - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 29, 2015. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) This year has started for SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) in a fashion eerily similar to 2014. On December 18, 2013, the Federal Reserve officially announced the planned tapering of its bond ... 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