{"id":26620,"date":"2015-01-22T17:22:27","date_gmt":"2015-01-23T01:22:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=26620"},"modified":"2015-01-22T17:31:58","modified_gmt":"2015-01-23T01:31:58","slug":"t2108-update-150122","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/01\/22\/t2108-update-150122\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (January 22, 2015) – Return of the Stock Market’s Soothing Salve"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are sometimes posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 51.2%
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 47.1%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 16.4 (down 13%)
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Bullish
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #65 over 20%, Day #24 above 30%, Day #4 over 40%, day #1 over 50% (overperiod), Day #34 under 60% (underperiod), Day #135 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nWhen I last wrote a T2108 Update a week ago<\/a>, the market felt heavy enough to switch my trading bias to bearish. I stuck by the anti-volatility bets but was on the hunt for set-ups to go short on individual stocks. I chose not to chase the S&P 500 (SPY) lower because I tend only to short the index when it is overbought or it experiences a major technical breakdown (well above oversold conditions). As it turned out, the S&P 500 never even retested 200DMA support as sellers completely lacked follow-through. It left me over the last week with very few bearish trades to even try.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 surges above its 50DMA….again<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

So, the market continues to chop with every move higher and then lower and higher again causing a whoosh of excitement. This time around the excitement came from the soothing salve of the European Central Bank (ECB). Its announcement of a quantitative easing (QE) program was apparently met with great market approval. The apparent impact on volatility was most dramatic and allowed me to close out all my anti-volatility positions with respectable gains: shares in ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures (SVXY) and put options on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY).<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The market’s salve comes in the form of a central bank just one week after a different central bank helped send volatility to its closing peak for the cycle<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The strong surge for ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures (SVXY) still leaves it stuck in a downtrend so far marked well by a declining 20DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Note how volatility reached a closing cyclical peak after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) threw markets for a loop by dropping its currency cap on the Swiss franc<\/a> (FXF) against the euro (FXE). A week later, the ECB helped plunge the VIX by 13% in a day, 27% off the last cyclical peak. This latest volatility cycle covered a nice range, but notice how SVXY still appears locked in a downtrend. I am a little more wary of the fade volatility trade and will look for a greater extreme next time I try it.<\/p>\n

T2108 closed at 51.2% after an impressive surge of 9 percentage points. T2108 has not managed to move much higher than these levels since the bounce from the December lows. I have no reason to drop my long-standing assumption that the stock market is caught in a choppy range. I have changed the trading bias to bullish only because the S&P 500 broke above its 50DMA. I can only assume that all-time highs will represent a cap. A break to new all-time highs will be bullish with special caveats in place if T2108 tests overbought conditions around the same time.<\/p>\n

Google (GOOG) is one stock I thought I could fade when the trading bias was bearish. Today, it blew right through 50DMA resistance AND the high from the previous bounce. I set up a trade on put options to trigger only if the stock broke through its low of the day after today’s open; unfortunately the condition triggered and within minutes GOOG was off and running. The stock now looks quite manic. However, since the last low now looks like a hammer bottoming pattern, I must change my trading bias on GOOG to bullish. If I had been prepared to change bias earlier, today’s incredible surge would have made a very profitable trade on call options! Resistance looms overhead from the declining 200DMA. <\/p>\n


\n
\"Google<\/a>
Google turns manic and confirms a double bottom<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The trade on Conn’s Inc.<\/a> (CONN) came to an abrupt end as the stock declined 11% to start the week. I was hoping the stock would rebound after January options expiration. The stock position was even at that time and the call option I sold against the stock expired worthless (paying for half of the higher strike call options I purchased). So, I cut the stock loose and bought a few call options just in case the stock revives again.<\/p>\n


\n
\"With<\/a>
With the supportive options action expired and behind it, Conn’s resumes its sickly ways<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

In some good news, I closed out all my gold-related short-term<\/strong> trades with nice profits yesterday. I sold a bit early as gold took a brief dip. I had a sensitive sell trigger in effect because SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has been ripping higher well above its upper-Bollinger Band – such moves are rarely sustainable and usually lead to substantial pullbacks at some point. I am looking to buy aggressively into that next dip.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The ever stronger US dollar is not preventing gold from continuing to soar year-to-date<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center>Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long GLD, long GOOG put options, long CONN call options, net LONG the euro (short term!), short the Swiss franc<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1303,483,482,199,599,512,338,62],"tags":[1457,1460,385,28,447,459,200,24,231,230,65,284,1363,333,334,226,1092,303,931],"class_list":["post-26620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bottom","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-commodities","category-internet","category-resistance","category-retail","category-technical-analysis","tag-conn","tag-conns-inc","tag-eurchf","tag-euro","tag-fxe","tag-fxf","tag-gld","tag-gold","tag-goog","tag-google","tag-sp-500","tag-spdr-gold-shares","tag-svxy","tag-swiss-franc","tag-swiss-national-bank","tag-t2108","tag-uvxy","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (January 22, 2015) - Return of the Stock Market's Soothing Salve - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/01\/22\/t2108-update-150122\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (January 22, 2015) - Return of the Stock Market's Soothing Salve - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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