{"id":2643,"date":"2010-09-23T06:27:01","date_gmt":"2010-09-23T10:27:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=2643"},"modified":"2010-09-23T07:34:22","modified_gmt":"2010-09-23T11:34:22","slug":"jinko-solar-sets-fresh-all-time-highs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/09\/23\/jinko-solar-sets-fresh-all-time-highs\/","title":{"rendered":"Jinko Solar Sets Fresh Highs – A Near Triple in Four Months"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jinko Solar (JKS) got its start in 2006 as a supplier of recovered silicon materials. It is now a vertically integrated solar manufacturer and seller of solar wafers, cells and modules. The company touts its fast growth and low-cost advantage from its Chinese operations. (See profile for more details<\/a>).<\/p>\n

JKS debuted on the American stock market in mid-May of this year at its IPO price of $11. This occurred just months after the company withdrew previous IPO plans. With a steep correction underway in the general market, JKS quickly plunged 23% in 4 days. At the time, it was easy to dismiss this event as another busted IPO. However, the company came to market as a profitable entity<\/a> with a viable business model. By the time JKS had a chance to remind investors and traders of its attractive financials in mid-August<\/a>, the stock had already more than doubled from its poor start. On Wednesday, JKS completed a recovered from a one-day drop of 11% earlier this month to set fresh highs. The stock has now almost tripled from its IPO. (Click chart for a larger view).<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The incredible run in JKS continues with fresh all-time highs<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n(Click for larger view)<\/strong><\/p>\n

*Chart created using TeleChart:<\/strong> <\/a>
\n<\/center>
\n<\/p>\n

The earnings announced August 16 certainly got the market’s attention. Average trading volume has more than doubled since then (tripling during a brief steep correction) and the stock has increased another 50%. During August’s earnings<\/a>, JKS raised Q3 and FY10 evenue guidance above analyst consensus expectations: $145-155M vs. $117M Q3 consensus and $500-525M vs. $419M FY10 consensus. For the quarter, JKS reported a 64% year-over-year increase in revenue to $133M “…primarily due to increased global demand for solar products and a significant increase in the shipments of solar modules attributable to the Company’s enhanced sales and marketing campaigns.”<\/p>\n

Gross profit increased at an even faster 87% year-over-year rate to $36M. Net income was $27M. However, almost a third of the gross came from shifts in foreign exchange:<\/p>\n

“The Company entered into foreign currency forward contracts with local banks to hedge its exposure to foreign currency risks. In the second quarter of 2010, the Company recorded a gain of RMB74.6 million (US$11.0 million) from a change in the fair value of forward contract derivatives resulting from the depreciation of the Euro and U.S. dollar against Renminbi.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The yuan’s future appreciation will depend as much on political dynamics as market adjustments<\/a>, but JKS did not discuss the sustainability of the profits from this derivative activity. For reference, a year ago, JKS lost money on its derivative contracts during a quarter in which it reported a loss in net income.<\/p>\n

Another concern is the large amount of relative debt. Total debt is $188M but cash levels are only $59M. Total debt to equity is a whopping 80. (See Yahoo!finance<\/a> for details). While total assets are $259M, it seems likely that JKS will eventually take advantage of its strong stock price to raise additional capital. GT Solar’s (SOLR’s) announcement of a secondary offer earlier this month may have triggered the brief but sharp sell-off in JKS on September 9<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Regardless the uptrend in the stock remains strong and valuations are probably low enough to encourage more buying absent any negative news flow (forward P\/E is 7.9, price-to-sales is 1.8, and price-to-book is 2.8). The recovery from a swift and steep correction to today’s fresh post-IPO highs is an encouraging technical signal. JKS’s strong stock performance places it in good company with this year’s other strong performers in the solar industry (for a brief review of these see “A ‘Stealth Rally’ In Solar Stocks<\/a>” and “A ‘Stealth Rally’ In Solar Stocks, Part Two<\/a>“).<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jinko Solar (JKS) got its start in 2006 as a supplier of recovered silicon materials. It is now a vertically integrated solar manufacturer and seller of solar wafers, cells and modules. The company touts its fast growth and low-cost advantage from its Chinese operations. (See profile for more details). JKS debuted on the American stock … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,62],"tags":[425,426,1597],"class_list":["post-2643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-solar-energy","category-technical-analysis","tag-jinko-solar","tag-jks","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nJinko Solar Sets Fresh Highs - A Near Triple in Four Months - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/09\/23\/jinko-solar-sets-fresh-all-time-highs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jinko Solar Sets Fresh Highs - A Near Triple in Four Months - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jinko Solar (JKS) got its start in 2006 as a supplier of recovered silicon materials. 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