{"id":264,"date":"2009-10-12T08:08:27","date_gmt":"2009-10-12T12:08:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=264"},"modified":"2009-10-12T08:37:28","modified_gmt":"2009-10-12T12:37:28","slug":"worldsteel-2010-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/10\/12\/worldsteel-2010-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"The World Steel Association Projects Steel Demand to Return to 2008 Levels"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.worldsteel.org\/?action=newsdetail&amp;id=275\">The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts for 2010<\/a> confirm my earlier view <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/10\/05\/what-is-the-deal-with-steel\/\">that steel demand (and production) most likely bottomed this year<\/a> and some kind of recovery is underway.<\/p>\n<p>Worldsteel&#8217;s forecasts indicate that demand for steel in 2010 will return to 2008 levels after contracting in 2009 by 8.6%:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;The World Steel Association (worldsteel) is forecasting that apparent steel use will contract worldwide by -8.6% to 1,104 mmt in 2009 after declining by -1.4% in 2008. This is an improved figure over the spring forecast issued in April 2009 which predicted a decrease of -14.1%. The improvement is largely due to the exceptionally strong growth in steel demand in China. With signs, from the beginning of the second half of 2009, of a recovery across the world now apparent, global steel demand in 2010 is forecast to grow by 9.2% to 1,206 mmt which is a recovery to the level of 2008.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>While Chinese steel demand should account for 48% of the world&#8217;s apparent steel use, Worldsteel does not expect Chinese growth rates to lead the way next year (&#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/arcelormittal-chief-surprised-at-chinas-steel-demand-outlook-2009-10-12\">ArcelorMittal chief surprised at China&#8217;s steel demand outlook<\/a>&#8220;). Chinese growth will drop to 5% while regions like the U.S., India, and the EU-27 will experience double-digit rates of increase.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.worldsteel.org\/?action=newsdetail&amp;id=275\">Click here for the details of Worldsteel&#8217;s forecasts<\/a>. (This post also appears on &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/inflationwatch.wordpress.com\/\">Inflation Watch<\/a>&#8220;).<\/p>\n<p>Note that these forecasts come right on the heels of <a href=\"http:\/\/online.barrons.com\/article\/SB125512925859977049.html?mod=googlenews_barrons\">a mostly negative report in Barron&#8217;s over the weekend on U.S. Steel<\/a>. Quoted analysts were divided on whether X is over-valued and how much risk exists in future supply and demand for steel. Interestingly, the article cites Nucor (NUE), AK Steel (AKS), and ArcelorMittal (MT) and &#8220;other steel companies&#8221; as better investments. Timna Tanners of UBS has a sell rating on X and a price target of $25, but she seems to like Steel Dynamics (STLD) which is &#8220;&#8230;in a better position than U.S. Steel to restart production quickly and respond to spot demand. &#8216;It doesn&#8217;t have the same high cost structure as U.S. Steel&#8217;.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The article ends by claiming that &#8220;A sustained global economic recovery would benefit all steel producers, but that seems a long way off.&#8221; At least for now, Worldsteel&#8217;s forecasts suggest otherwise.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long STLD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts for 2010 confirm my earlier view that steel demand (and production) most likely bottomed this year and some kind of recovery is underway. Worldsteel&#8217;s forecasts indicate that demand for steel in 2010 will return to 2008 levels after contracting in 2009 by 8.6%: &#8220;The World Steel Association (worldsteel) is &#8230; <a title=\"The World Steel Association Projects Steel Demand to Return to 2008 Levels\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/10\/12\/worldsteel-2010-projections\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[1589,210,45,46,193,211,212,194],"class_list":["post-264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-steel","tag-china","tag-steel-demand","tag-steel-dynamics","tag-stld","tag-u-s-steel","tag-world-steel-association","tag-worldsteel","tag-x"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The World Steel Association Projects Steel Demand to Return to 2008 Levels - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2009\/10\/12\/worldsteel-2010-projections\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The World Steel Association Projects Steel Demand to Return to 2008 Levels - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts for 2010 confirm my earlier view that steel demand (and production) most likely bottomed this year and some kind of recovery is underway. 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